{"id":2948,"date":"2018-04-01T20:07:38","date_gmt":"2018-04-02T02:07:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/?p=2948"},"modified":"2018-04-01T20:07:38","modified_gmt":"2018-04-02T02:07:38","slug":"easter-sunday-4-1-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/easter-sunday-4-1-18\/","title":{"rendered":"Easter Sunday 4-1-18"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Greetings and hoppy Easter!<\/p>\n

This is one of my all time favorite Easter cartoons. It is just silly.<\/p>\n

It is also April 1st, aka April Fools Day. I didn’t do any April Fools pranks this year so you guys are safe for now.<\/p>\n

I spent the day with my head in the computer working on another web site. When I finally looked around about dinner time I checked the forecast. I wish that was an April Fools prank, but I doubt it.<\/p>\n

We are under a winter storm watch for tomorrow night and Tuesday with a general 6-10″ of snow\u00a0 expected, and higher amounts some places, like here. The TV weather channel alerted me to this when I saw their storm watch covering our region. Watching their predictor animation we could see over 11″ by Tuesday night.<\/p>\n

Where the heck was this when the snowmobile trails were open and we had such a nice base?<\/p>\n

Here is a total precipitation estimate from the North American model.\"\"<\/a> The green is 0.6-1.0″ of RFE, and the blue is 1.0-2.0″. RFE is short for rainfall equivalent.<\/p>\n

Usually I estimate snowfall using a 10-12″ of snow to 1″ of rain multiplier. If it is really wet and heavy snow it could go 6 or 8 inches per inch of water. The really puffy snow can go as high as 20+” of snow per inch of rainfall. For now let’s stick to a 10 or 12 of snow per inch of water ratio.<\/p>\n

Virtually all of my guidance show us in for at least 6″ of snow, and likely more. In the winter when we are snowmobiling I would be very skeptical of such a perfect snow forecast. There is an old saying.. The probability of an outcome is the inverse of its desirability. At this time of year the snow is just a nuisance, so I believe this forecast.<\/p>\n

Here is what I found among the various sources..<\/p>\n

TV- Snow from 6pm Monday to midnight Wed morning- 6-10″, 11+” in Lakewood<\/p>\n

NWS- 3″ Monday night, 6″ Tuesday, ? Tuesday night,<\/p>\n

NAM Model- Similar timing,\u00a0 6-12, possibly 12+<\/p>\n

GFS model- Similar timing, 6-12″<\/p>\n

ECMWF- (European model)- Similar numbers, similar timing<\/p>\n

Usually when the models agree that closely 24 hours out it is a likely outcome.<\/p>\n

We had a cold night last night (+5\u00baF) and while it was sunny today I don’t think that it got much above 30. The sun was out enough to clear plowed roads bare but it only knocked our 7-9″ down to about 5-6″. It won’t be sunny or warm tomorrow, so most of that should still be there when the next snow comes.<\/p>\n

Part two of this is that the snow won’t be going anywhere for a while. Low temperatures for the next week are in the 9-15 degree range, with the warmest day next Sunday at +38. The sun will knock the snow down a little, but with highs around 30 and a lows of 12 or 15 there won’t be a lot of fast melting other than on the roads. Our average high & low temps for today are 45 and 28F.<\/p>\n

That snow and cold will put me in a very busy place tomorrow after work. I did a just good enough plow and snowblowing job yesterday, assuming the the April sun would clean the rest up pretty fast. Now I need to push back snow piles in the driveway to make room for the new stuff, and dig out some firewood before it is under 16+ inches of snow. Not happy.<\/p>\n

So will they re-open the snowmobile trails? I doubt it, but I guess that they could if we ended up with 12-15+ inches on the ground. I have seen them open as late as April 15th weekend. For now people lucky enough to have off-trail spots to ride are already in the green north of about Benson Lake Rd just with the snow from yesterday.<\/p>\n

It is getting late so I am going to get this posted and go hope that this storm goes around us like so many did during the snowmobiling season.<\/p>\n

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!
\nRJB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Greetings and hoppy Easter! This is one of my all time favorite Easter cartoons. It is just silly. It is also April 1st, aka April Fools Day. I didn’t do any April Fools pranks this year so you guys are safe for now. I spent the day with my head in the computer working on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2948","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2948"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2948\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2951,"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2948\/revisions\/2951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/northerndestinations.com\/scindex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}