Greetings and welcome!
Sorry to have missed last Friday’s report. There was just too much going on to get one put together. This week does not look any better, so this is probably it for this week.
This week is crunch time around here. As happens every fall, we have been busy with computer repairs and web sites, and now I am way behind on my outside work. Looking at the GFS, the weather is going to get ugly next week, so it is time to scamper around madly catching up on pre-winter stuff.
The top of the list is stuff that needs to be done before the ground freezes and stuff that needs to be done before it goes under 50 for a daytime high. There is still dirt to be moved, the roof needs some patching, the truck needs service, and anything that needs paint or calk needs it this week.
Next week looks ugly for weather. The GFS is pretty consistent with returning us to a wet and active pattern. We should see a couple of bigger storms.
We could also see our first accumulating snow of 2010. A few of the storms have moisture and cold enough upper air temperatures that snow next week is likely. One or two have the potential to not just be a dusting on the grass, but actual inches of snow. It won’t last long, the ground is frozen and the sun is still a little too warm. It could get sloppy for outside work though.
The fall color season has no come and gone for the most part. The players most recently are the oaks and the tamaracks. The tamaracks are lighting up the swamps with their gold colors. Other than them, it is the oaks that bring the remaining color. It is pretty typical for late October.
Slug asked last week about my winter predictions. Buckle up. That is my winter prediction. According to the CPC, we will be between colder than normal temps stretching into NW WI, and the wetter than normal weather expected for SE WI and points southeast. On paper anyway, that would put us into the snow zone, with some variability going either way.
Watching recent weather, we have been seeing stretches of wet weather and stretches of warmer than normal and dry weather. I think that might be a good peek at the future.
I am expecting significant precip this winter, but not all of it snow. The path of some of the bigger fall storms would have brought rain, then snow behind it. I would expect to see a good ice base this winter.
We have also seen some wide swings in temperatures, and I’d expect that to continue. It would be nice if the 10-15º above normal stuff came in January, negating the weeks of sub-zero stuff that can make that month unfun. We have been getting away with that the last few winters, so I wouldn’t count on it.
This winter we will have LaNina conditions. LaNina is like ElNino, but the cold phase. We have been in LaNina conditions since early summer when the drought turned around. For comparison, recent LaNina years were 98-99, 2000-2001, early 06, and 2007-2008.
I am expecting a lot of snow and cold. The LaNina flow generally is out of the Northwest for us. That means those bitter cold waves behind storms should be common. While I am not expecting 20″ inches of rain in two months like we had this summer, I do expect that we will break the streak of two winters without a foot or more out of a single snowstorm. We have been seeing storms find their way here with the precip. (finally)
I am also seeing indications in nature that she is ready for a big winter. It has been 8-10 years since we saw really huge spring runoff on area rivers, and I am expecting that to turn around any time now.
Where do I get that? There are saplings growing in the overflow chutes carved out from high water years past. If they could survive, there would be a big tree there. If they get much bigger, they might be big enough to survive the high water and ice flow. History says that they can’t be there, so my projection of that is that we should be having a big river any time now to come and clean them out.
There are also some indications in nature that we might be in for a big winter. It is clearly the year of the mouse. They hae been invading houses and cabins around here in force this year. I have traps, D-Con and a cat, and still have mice coming in to replace the recently deceased ones. I am not alone in this, it is the talk of the neighborhood.
There are a lot of other litle hints in nature that this might not be the winter that we have been getting used to the past few years.
Well, I have to run along. I have a meeting in a few minutes, and need to go.
As I mentioned, I am planning on spending the rest of the week on outside work, so I am not planning on a late week report. I will likely return to put out the mothballs and mouse traps here and direct people over to the Big Snow page. In time I will be there doing daily reports, but until the snowmobile season comes up they will more likely be about weekly.
I am also proud to be hosting no less than 5 area snowmobile clubs’ web sites this year, plus my Big Sow Page. I have my work cut out for me there, and again, it is crunch time getting everything ready for the season. I finally got what I wanted, now it is time to be good at it.
That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
