March 2010

Friday March 19th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The nice weather this week had people itching to go outside and get started with spring activities. Stuff like cleaning up the yard and going fishing were discussed, along with firing up the grill. It was a nice week indeed, with some days at about the limit of our climatology. Our normal high is 38, and usually we are within 30 degrees at the most. That day that hit 66 was 28 degrees above normal, and pretty unusual.

At one point it looked like we could see a weekend storm, and one of the model runs even put forth a scenario of us getting 12-20″ of snow. It is not gonna happen, but we knew that.

Instead we have a pair of cold fronts coming from our northwest and pushing the storm down toward the state line and points south. The first one already came through, and brought a line of showers on the radar that never showed up on the ground, at least not here.

The cloudy day today is expected to continue Saturday as well, though it could break up as the storm moves away. Sunday they expect to be sunny. The NWS is looking fo mid-40s both days, and nothing for snow north of Green Bay.

Next week the colder weather is expected to stick around. We are again looking for highs in the mid-40s. There is a chance of a clipper midweek and a bigger storm for the weekend.

In events for this weekend..

There are some constants every year at this time. The road bans come and keep heavy trucks off of the roads while the frost under them thaws. Likewise the snowmobile & ATV trails closed the 15th for the same reason.

The other one is that between the snow melt and the big greening of the land, we usually have a stretch with high fire danger. As last year’s dead vegetation dries out, we will likely see wildfire conditions go to a moderate or high state. I haven’t seen anything yet, but usually it comes about the time people want to start cleaning up yards and such.

Last fall the pilot program allowing SUTVs/LUTVs onto the ATV trail expired in September. March 4th the state passed a law extending that. The new law will likely require a registration sticker from the state (Instead of the county) and instead of being a pilot program in a few counties, it is open to any county that wants to allow them. Marinette County participated last time and will very likely again do so. Thank you goes out to Slug & Greg Reinhardt for keeping us up to date on this. Here is a link to the bill (PDF Format).

On one of our nice days this week I walked down by the Peshtigo River to see how the ice out is coming along. The river was on the rise, and a lot of the ice in the rapids section has been cleared out. When I checked this morning it had risen up to about +12 over the course of the week. We don’t start rafting with Kosirs for two weekends yet, but private boaters could likely get in the first run of the year.

As always I am very much looking forward to spring rafting with Kosir’s. The big water makes it wild and worth going in April. I am not sure what to expect this year, but I am not too worried about it. Most of the watershed had a pretty normal fall and winter for rainfall/snowfall. There is not a really deep frost in the ground, but there is some, and most of it is still there.  The swamps aren’t overflowing, but they do have decent water.

As with any spring, it will be rainfall dependent. If we get a big storm or two it will roar, if not it should be about average. Most of the watershed is between Goodman Park and Crandon, and they had a decent enough winter. Don’t forget that the Christmas and January storms brought a lot of rain before the snow, and we had a week of wet weather late fall too.

Now it is a matter of a storm or two making it really roar. The two weekends after this one both show potentially big storms, and the one for about 4-1 looks like a really big one.

If there is one thing that 20 years of watching this river has taught me is that you just don’t know. “That was pretty fun..” and “What an incredible trip!” are only one good storm apart. How do you predict that?

Personally I am looking forward to a good spring. I have a hunch that the fading El Nino will eventually let us get back into the storm path and it will work out, maybe with big results.  We are going to see cold weather and below freezing nights that will drop the river and halt the thaw next week. Behind that are numerous chances of big storms in the next few weeks, and yes we are due. At the moment I am a lot more worried about being out of shape from winter than water levels.

That is about it from here. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

March 17th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day.

It is a nice one indeed. It is sunny and 55, and it looks pretty inviting out there..

Yesterday we saw a high of 67.3 at Athelstane Weather. That is a pretty nice day. I didn’t get to play, I was a good boy and I worked a double yesterday so that I could play outside today. I did not know that it was 67..

I told you yesterday that it wouldn’t snow 15 or 20 inches for the weekend. The last three model runs agree. Now the storm is shown pivoting south of us and we would be lucky to see 1-3. LOL  But wait… It runs again at noon..

One thing that has been pretty consistant in the models is the breakdown of the big high pressure system that shielded us from storm after storm this winter. We could actually see stuff like Alberta Clippers, real southern storms, and some variability in our upcoming weather. It is actually a pretty stormy outlook, and it is not all nice. Some could get a little cold.

You guys really didn’t think it went from snowmobiling to sunny & 65 in 2 weeks didja? This was our spring tease. The NWS says 30s early next week heading for the 40s later. Our normal hi/lo in Rhinelander right now is 38/16. Fifty five or sixty is a nice day, but not the norm yet.

Well I am off to go and get some outside work done, and maybe dig up my obnoxious Irish shirt for later.

Have a good St Paddy’s Day and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday March 16th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It is another spectacular spring day outside. Our high of 59 is now 64 and rising, and our cloudy day with isolated showers is really a spectacular sunny day.

The new critter of the day yesterday was a flock of turkeys. They seem to like this area in spring, and they are back. I will see what else there is too see soon when I bail on work and go to stretch my legs a little.

We are looking at a nice week ahead right up to the weekend. From about Saturday on there will be a storm affecting the region.

Earlier model runs were showing us getting as much as 4-8 Sunday, but the in the midnight run they have pushed the snow part of the storm south. Our friends along the state line would enjoy similar totals if it held up, with us getting a little less, maybe 3-6.

The 6am model run looks very different. That one is not showing much rain for us. That shows snow starting Saturday morning and going until late Sunday night. The path of the low would be a bull’s eye for putting us in a lot of snow. The QPF on the storm is conservatively in the 1-1.75″ range with 1/4″ more possible. That is rainfall equivalent. Use about a 12:1 to figure snow depth.

It is just a forecast, and it will change again. Six hours ago it was a 2-4 maybe 3-6 event with some rain in the front. No I don’t believe that we are in for 12-18″ of snow, maybe going to 15-20. It is just what it shows now.

The GFS in particular is prone to convective feedback and overstating storms in general. At that point until it gets closer, shows some consistency, and is verifiable with other models, it is for entertainment only. I do expect some precip for the weekend, and it might get interesting. At the moment I am eying any dramatic totals with skepticism.

The one constant in the models is us getting some wind behind the storm.

The events for the weekend have not changed. We have the poker run with the Firelane Bar and the chicken dinner with the Stephenson VFD, both on Saturday.

Well I am off to get back to work so that I can escape before sunset and enjoy a little of the nice day.

Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Pi Day

Greetings and welcome!

Yes it is Pi Day- 3.14. I told Chris to come back in 5 years and I would be impressed, 3.14.15 @ 9:26 and 53 seconds. (3.141592653)

It is a blue ribbon Pi day indeed. The dreariness from last week has gone away. The rain, fog, wind and all of that stuff has been replaced by a sunny & 62 T-shirt day.

We are going to see a good bit of that this week, with today, Wednesday and Thursday holding promise of more of the same. Thursday could actually threaten 70 if everything lines up right.

Tuesday is the outlier, when higher pressure than we have now moves in, creating a minor disturbance. My maps are showing the sprinkles/light rain mostly in western WI, but the NWS is still predicting a chance of isolated showers and a cloudy day for us. Wednesday won’t be quite as warm, but it will be ramping back up for Thursday.

For the weekend we are looking at a gen-U-ine southern storm. This one could get interesting. When I looked last night the GFS was showing a path that would be favorable for good bit of rain, followed by a chance of 4-8″ of snow about Sunday with more possible Monday. I have my doubts, but that is what it is showing me.

We have some events this week. Monday brings the Crivitz Recreation Association banquet. That is a little like the Iron Snowshoe banquet with lots of raffles and nice prizes, dinner & happy hour.

Wednesday brings the wearin’ O the green for St Patties Day. Apparently it is also Glenn at Curve Inn’s birthday, and they will be having a party Wednesday afternoon and night with free corned beef & cabbage from 4pm till it is gone, and a DJ karaoke guy from 7pm on.

This weekend we have..

Something has come up, and I will have to finish my update later. In the meantime enjoy the nice weather and have a good Sunday.

________________________

Pi Day V2

Sorry, I had to go.

In the meantime, Jabber E-mailed in with another event. I thought it was the weekend of the 27th, it is this weekend.

The event in mind is the March Humm Drumm Poker Run with the Firelane Bar this Saturday the 20th. They will be Meeting at Firelane, Leaving at 11:00. Rapids Resort is the first stop, yes I will be working. Then it is off to Eagle Creek, Brown Jug, I Dont Knows in Middle Inlet, The Chippewa, then back to Firelane.

In other news, the day today was a nice one. Athelstane Weather showed 63.9 for a high. I saw the car gadget get as high as 65 in sunny areas and down to the upper 50s in secluded areas that were shaded and still held snow.

The warm weather has eaten a lot of snow, but there is still some in sheltered areas. The driveway and other gravel roads are soft in spots but firm in many areas. It again depends on how sheltered it is. It has not been a bad mud year, but you can find it easily enough.

The Peshtigo opened up by Kosir’s, but remains frozen upstream. The water is starting to run on top of the ice, usually the beginning of the end for the ice. The water is gathering in the low spots, and while they aren’t flooded, there is water there. Right now all that it will take is a little rain and some warm days to get it all rolling. It is running about+6″ right now, maybe a touch higher. It is just getting started.

The latest GFS model run has backed away from snow for late weekend. We are still expecting a weekend rain storm, but the latest version cheats us out of our 4-8″ follow through. It could easily change again.

The biggest change in the great outdoors was that the chippies came out over the past few days and are rather frisky. I could hear them calling back and forth in the yard and they were zooming back and forth rather energetically. Obviously they are happy about spring.

I have seen my first gnat, but only one. There were a few of those first white moths out the other night too. Even though it is a drab time of year, it is a wondrous one, as each day brings another bug, critter, or plant emerging for spring. It is a cool progression, and it peaks with the great greening of the land in May and June. That is an amazing transformation.

That is about it for today. Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!

RJB