May 2010

Sunday May 9th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It was an interesting night Friday night. The snow started up pretty good after dark. It eventually added up to 2-3 inches of sloppy snow. It did not stick to roads very well east of here, the main challenge driving was seeing past the fast falling flakes at 60mph. Some snow did accumulate on roads from about Parkway and points west but it was not long lived. Mostly it was slushy or wet on roads.

The snow was wet and heavy, and it did bow down a lot of trees. On my way back from Athelstane Friday night at midnight the trees seemed a lot more burdened west of about the Silver Cliff/Athelstane line. Mostly it was the small birch, popple and cherry trees that got bent over. I did see some pine branches, but no big trees down.  For the most part it shook off or melted before it took down too many trees, at least around here.

Eventually a tree or branch did take down a power line and power went out here at about 1:30am and was restored about 7 hours later.

Saturday cleared up quickly and became a nice but chilly day. It was in the upper 40s and there was a little edge to the wind. If you were out in the sun it wasn’t too bad. As expected most of the snow was long gone by early afternoon.

The Friday storm brought a lot of rain. The USGS gauge by Kosir’s said that it measured 0.85″, and usually my bucket about doubles that gauge. There were some pretty good puddles. I would call it an inch to an inch and a half of rain. That is a fine start.

We were talking yesterday about how this will set off the green explosion. The plants and trees just waiting for a little moisture will get that and some sunny days this week, and it will likely set them off into rapid growth. I expect the landscape to look very different in a week. It will likely also bring the first grass cutting of the year.

Next week holds the possibility of two more rain producing storms. Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday night/Friday show storms bringing a chance of measurable precip. That has me excited about the possibilities for the Peshtigo River rafting next weekend. The snow & rain Friday night lifted the Pesh about 3″, and will add to the future rain if it comes.

We are expecting a fun weekend next weekend at Kosir’s. The Summer rafting prices kick in, and rafting prices go down almost in half. Between that and nicer weather, the new spring greening and all of the other stuff going on, it is a popular weekend. It will be good to see a lot of people around, the economy is really hitting hard up here. It would be great if the rain comes to lift the river and cut fire danger at the same time a lot of people come to visit.

At the moment the weekend weather looks good, with high pressure behind the Friday storm expected to bring cool and clear weather. Look for temps around 60 and lows around 40.

We did get cold Saturday night when the temps went down to the high twenties. It is expected to do that again tonight.

Well, it is a sunny day outside with minimal wind and 50 degrees promising to get close to 60. Time for me to head outside and see what project I tackle today.

Have a good Sunday, happy Mother’s Day, and thank you for visiting!

RJB

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Friday Maypril 7th, 2010

9:45pm

The snow picked up abut an hour ago and there is probably an inch or a little more down. Now it is actually sticking.

6Pm-

There has been a little snow in the mix since about 4pm. It has not been accumulating other than on a few cold spots in tall grass, and there it is slushy at best.  The roads are wet and not snow covered or slippery.

Mostly it is pretty slow falling big flakes that aren’t adding up to anything (Yet).

Greetings and welcome!

Yes Maypril. It is May but the weather thinks it is April. Maypril.

It is a gloomy morning, and according to the radar the rain is not far away. The forecast remains on track for today and tonight. We are looking at some rain today and snow tonight.

The models and forecasts have been pretty consistent with the storms and results for several days, and that inspires some confidence in them, warranted or not. They don’t have the exact snow path down pat, but again they are consistent with the guesses. I have scrubbed every source that I have for two days, and they are pretty well in unison.

The bottom line looks like rain today and tonight, then sometime between 10pm and midnight the rain will change to snow, and there is about 2-4 expected by the time it ends Saturday morning. It could go 3-5 by the Michigan border and maybe more with lake effect up there.  The expected main rain snow line is from about Sturgeon Bay to Wausau. Farther south totals should diminish.

We have two storms almost coming together over us. The first is a southern storm with decent rain and a path just a little south of favorable for us. We are still expecting rain, just not as much as the southern half of the state.

Round two comes with a clipper type storm coming out of the northern border states. That is the one with the cold air and the snow. As is typical of a clipper, we could see 1-3 and maybe 2-4, followed by a drop in temps and some wind.

Had the two storms phased together and made a huge winter storm we could see some dynamic snow totals and the potential for a surprise. So far they have not stacked up enough to do that, and are still two separate but related storms.

The other element to look at is the speed of the storms. They are expected to clear out quickly in the early morning. The models show the storm complex over New England by noon Saturday.

So the forecast for tonight is for the rain to change to snow between 10pm and midnight. My guess is earlier. We should see 2-4 ovenight and into the morning, then it will clear up as the day goes on. Look for highs in the mid-40s and gusty winds.

Saturday night looks cold with lows in the upper 20s and widespread frost. Again that is fairly typical after a clipper. Clear skies allow radiational cooling, and with the already cold air behind the front it adds up to a chilly night.

Sunday looks much better. No snow, no rain, 5-10mph winds and a beautiful sunny day are all expected. Look for a high in the mid or upper 50s.

There are special weather statements and a winter weather advisory out from the NWS for the snow overnight. The snow could add up on roads, though it seems unlikely with the ground thawed for almost a month now. If it gets going it could add up and make slippery spots.

The other end of it is if the snow is wet and heavy, it could add up on tree branches that now have leaves, and drop some of those. That remains to be seen, it is just a clipper.

This is not a record setting storm. There are at least five storms since 1960 with 3+ inches of snow on this date. In Green Bay the record today is 8″, and in Lakewood they measured 10. That would take down some branches.

I should also mention that at this time of year, even on a cloudy day, 4″ of snow has a lifespan of about 20 minutes once the sun comes up. In the end of March the sun will shine through the clouds and eat 10″ of snow by lunchtime. In early may it will happen much faster. A few patches might survive longer under trees, but most areas will melt very quickly.

So a mixed weekend in weather.. Maypril. Maybe that should be a contraction.

Anyway, Sunday, in addition to being a nice day, is Mother’s Day. Around here the Hilltop Resort and the Twin Bridge Resort are having reasonably priced Mother’s Day Buffets.

As is standard, Mom rafts free at Kosir’s with a paid rafting trip. That lasts May 7th-9th, all weekend. The Menominee River is the ticket there. It has come up a little this week and the rain will raise it quickly with it’s massive 2,400 square mile watershed. Get her a picture too!

Kurt asked this moring about the four wheelers on McCaslin Mountain. Chris got on the phone this morning and clarified things a little with Edie Smith. The trails on the mountain are closed permanently. The DNR decided that there was to much damage to streams and wet spots and locked it down. So the mountain trails are closed.

The 4 wheelers are stil welcome at the campground. They can still run over to the pipeline and run that. In the case of ATVs they can still trailer to whatever trailhead, Brandywine, Wolf Lane, Firelane, or down to Lakewood.

The mountain trails are closed, but the campground still welcomes the wheelers that want to run the pipeline or other trails. Yes closing the mountain is a big deal and a tragedy.

Well I am off to cover a little ground between the lines of rain. There is firewood to cover and bring in, stuff to batten down against the wind, and what the heck, maybe I will work on that one snowmobile that still needs to be moved and get it ready for morning.

I will be back later if anything changes. Otherwise have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday Maypril 6th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

We have had a little weather since the last time that we visited. Tuesday night a storm came through that got destructive about 100 miles south of here. When it first got here it was one where it was a distinct line. Here by Hwy C I could sit on the picnic bench 5 minutes after it rained. A mile south the roads were wet. Later a few lines of showers finally made it through the area. There was also a line that came through yesterday that added a little. It was not a lot of rain, maybe 1/4-1/2″, but it will help the world get green. It should really set off some changes.

The weekend weather looks somewhat different than my ideal forecast, but it could be worse. The late week storm that I told you about on Tuesday is just a little behind schedule. The way that the models show it this morning the main storm will go a little farther south than expected. That will help reduce rain chances for tonight, but we are expecting rain Friday. Eventually it is shown forming a second storm behind the first, and that one bull’s eyeing us Friday night and Saturday morning.

The place where it gets interesting is that the second storm will bring some unseasonably cold air with it. The maps are showing it as cold as -9C at the 850mb level as close as Lake Superior late Friday night. The NWS has the low in the low 30s. That is deep cold for this time of year. Combined with the moisture from the second low pressure area, yes ladies and gentlemen, the possibility of snow comes into the picture for Friday night and Saturday morning. The morning weather showed it mostly between Eagle River and about Hurley, and 2-5″ possible. It also showed a fair band of snow coming over us. My guess is that we may see some slushy accumulation, but not much. It looks like mostly rain, but the line is close, and that is a tough dynamic to predict. It could easilly go the other way.

Saturday should clear up as the day progresses. There are winds in the 15-25mph range predicted along with highs in the upper 40s. Campers will want an extra blanket for Saturday night when there is widespread frost expected and lows in the high 20s. Clear skies and cold air behind a front will do that at this time of year. Sunday looks a lot better with clear weather and highs in the mid-50s. Our normal hi/lo today is 63/37.

So the weekend doesn’t look perfect for weather, but it could be a lot worse. Right now it doesn’t look like the precip will linger long into Saturday morning. I remain a little skeptical of the snow chances, but it is what is indicated right now. I am also skeptical of dramatic forecasts. Eight times out of ten it isn’t as bad as expected and people who stayed away based on a forecast miss out.

Today is the first day in a while that it hasn’t been windy. The TV weather said that 6 of the last 10 days had winds over 30mph. Yesterday Athelstane weather recorded a gust of 41, and that is on board with nearby stations. It would have been a good week to have a wind turbine.

Tuesday was firewood day agiain, and what a day. I went to a friend’s house where he was clearing a bunch of big basswood. We loaded the truck and trailer heavy with big trunks and really made a load of it. My old truck was -not- happy, and I’m still feeling it too.

I love the part about making a couple of weeks of heat in one day. Basswood isn’t oak, but it works good for early and late season when oak is too much. I have to guess that we covered heat for two or three weeks in November in that load. I like my firewood. It is the Gold’s Gym of the northwoods, being out in the woods is great, and the heat saves me a bundle.

That is about it for now. I expect to be back before tomorrow afternoon with the latest weather updates.

Have a good Thursday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday May 4th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The rain came mostly on Friday and wasn’t much anyway. The weekend turned out nice except for the wind. It was windy both days and some gusts had to go over 30. Thankfully it was also mostly sunny and in the 70s.

Here’s one for the guys in Burlington.. It was so windy Saturday that I saw tree stumps get uprooted and start rolling across the field..

Saturday we headed up to the Menominee River with Kosir’s to video a little rafting. The river was low, but that river is still wild at low levels. There were a few good wipe outs and some great runs, and one kayaker that took a little bit of an ugly swim. I will see about some video later. If you are not rafting up there you are missing out.

Sunday I was on a mission to goof off. We headed up to a couple of little lakes in the Nicolet to see how spring was progressing. The leaves are starting to come in on the trees, and most of the hardwoods are showing green. The trilliums and marsh marigolds are in bloom and very common. The grasses are greening up, as is the underbrush in the forest.

I told Chris that she should take a good look, it will be 6 months before you can see that far into the woods again. In a couple of weeks it will look very different as the underbrush comes in.

The lakes were coming right along. The water is obviously warming up and the first lilies are up. Levels on seepage lakes and rivers remain low. According to the DNR, the spawns are ahead of time and while bass and panfish aren’t up on the beds yet they are heading that way.

The drought continues. While Tennessee saw 12-14″ of rain out of the last storm and disastrous flooding, we saw less than 1/4″ Friday. I would love to see a storm stall over us right now, but maybe not to a disastrous extent like they saw there.

We should see an increasing trend in our precip. The El Nino is continuing to break down, and eventually the mid-latitude blocking high pressure that cursed our winter and spring should break down too.

I am not a big fan of the rubber band theory in weather, though I’d like to see it. The rubber band theory says that since we are behind in our rain, we should be due, and it will snap back with equal force in the other direction. It would probably be best if we didn’t make up for a 6 year drought in one week or month.

I see it more like weight loss. It took 5 years to add the extra pounds, it won’t be going away in a week or a month. A gradual change is the most likely outcome.

We do have some history of storms lining up over us and camping long enough to really add up. It happened a few years ago in July or August where the heavy thunderstorms came down a line like they were on a rail, and the Pesh watershed saw 9″+ of rain in one night. The same thing happened downstate not so long ago when there was so much flooding. It happens, but is of low probability.

There used to be a fairly regular pattern of a cut off low pressure area camping over us for a week or so in mid-May, and bringing 2-4″ of rain. That hasn’t happened in a few years, but hopefully will return.

The other likely source of bigger rains come to us when leftovers of a tropical storm or hurricane eventually finds it’s way up the Mississippi River Valley and into our neighborhood. Often they too get cut off and sit over us for a few days. Again it is a low probability event.

We have had abnormally low hurricane activity he past 4 years, and struck out again there. This year might be different, the ACE Index is expected to be a good bit higher than recent years, bringing increased probability of more hurricanes.

I do think that it will bounce back, it just most likely won’t be in one night, or week. I actually think that we are under way with the changes, and that they will increase with the El Nino break down and resultant AO changes.

In the short term, this week we have a couple of chances for rain. Tuesday night into Wednesday there should be some rain, followed by a cold front and temperature drop. That one is a more northern storm, and of moderate intensity.

There is a bigger southern storm expected for Thursday-Saturday morning. That shows some promise of actually measurable rainfall, the second time in a week! The latest GFS shows it clearing out just in time to leave us a cool but sunny weekend. We will want to watch the timing on that one as it gets closer, but it looks ideal now.

This is Mattie. He is two and ran away from the Wheeler Lake Area on 4/23. If you have seen him, use the little tab on the left to contact me and I will put you in touch with the right people. There is a reward offered.

A quick reminder as summer gets closer.. Kosir’s is again offering non-whitewater tubing on the Peshtigo River, and canoe or sit on top kayak rentals for exploring Caldron Falls Flowage. Of course they still raft on two rivers with whitewater, but the flat water options open opportunities for families that might have youngsters that are too young to paddle the rough stuff, and the masses that simply are more inclined to the relaxed pace.

Last year the flat water tubing and kayaks were a smash hit, and I think that it will continue to be very popular as people look for low cost outdoor fun  things to do on getaway weekends and vacations. Personally I think that it’s great. It is fun, cheap, outdoors, wet, and almost anyone can do it.

Speaking of fun cheap and anyone can do it, I hear that the Big Bear Outpost will be opening back up this coming weekend. They have all sorts of camping supplies and carry-outs as well as that super delicious hand dipped ice cream.  The owners’ son Matt will be running it, initially on weekends, and more once summer rolls around.

That is about it from here. Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB