July 2010

Friday July 30th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

I just wanted to check in with a last minute weather update.

The NAM and the TV are looking for some rain tonight and early Saturday morning. They have it clearing out late Saturday morning, and a lingering chance that we might see some scattered showers and storms if the afternoon heat stirs up the atmosphere enough.

The NAM weighs in with some notable rain tonight for us. The NAM total QPF for the next 72 hours is 1-1.5″ with almost all of it coming overnight tonight.

That was the scenario that I floated yesterday where the main energy of the disturbance would hit us instead of the UP as otherwise predicted. With the scattered nature of it, I could only guess if it will work out, but right now it is way north, up by International Falls.

The GFS is keeping us in the lowest color area for precip (0.01-0.1″) from Friday night until Saturday afternoon. They also subscribe to the chances of some late day rain Saturday, stepping up the total rain possible to 0.1-0.25″. They show a nice day Sunday, and a total weekend QPF <0.25″.

The HPC has us in the lowest bands except for tonight & Saturday and a total of 0.1-0.25″ of rain for the weekend. There is no precip expected after Saturday afternoon.

The NWS has a chance of showers and isolated storms tonight and a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday. Rain chances with them are 40% tonight, 30% Saturday.

The bottom line? It will be a mostly very nice summer weekend. With temps in the mid-70s to low 80s, it will be really nice for late July.

The rain expected after Saturday morning is not anything organized. Think of it more as typical summer afternoon scattered showers that pop up in the heat of the day. I wouldn’t sit this weekend out on account of weather.

Watch the cloud tops.. If they start getting really tall, pay attention. More likely they will be flattened on top (capped) or cut off (shear) and won’t be able to build up high enough to support showers or a T-storm forming.

I am also going to go out on a limb and predict a good sunset Saturday evening. With a few clouds around and some moisture in the atmosphere it should have good color and maybe some feature clouds.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday July 29th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The rain storm a few nights ago was a good one. We didn’t have any damage around here, but we did see an inch to an inch and a half of rain.

To the north and east of the Peshtigo River watershed they got pounded. Rainfall estimates that I have seen were in the 2-5″ range for far northern Forest County and Florence County and nearby places to the north and east of there in the U.P.

Both rivers should be on the rise for the weekend. The Menominee is the highly recommended pick for whitewater rafting this weekend. It was running at 3,000cfs the last time that the gauge updated, which was yesterday afternoon. I suspect that it will be there or more likely higher for the weekend. That river is so cool when it gets big, burying 12 man rafts in huge waves and holes, and really getting the adrenaline rat fed.

The weather this weekend looks mediocre. I checked 4 different sources and came away with 4 different ideas on what will happen. My best guess is that it will work out ok. There will be a chance of rain Friday afternoon and again Friday night and Saturday morning. That rain should not be too heavy according to the forecast models, which put he QPF at 0.01-0.1″ per six hour frame. The NWS, NAM, and HPC have the rain leaving by noon, the GFS keeps the chance of <0.1″ in the forecast right through Sunday.

The heaviest part of the storm is expected to be in the UP and near Lake Superior, with light and scattered stuff coming to our area. That could also change, having a storm work out 200 miles one way or the other of the prediction isn’t that big of a variance on the grand scale.  None of the forecasts have it straying south at the moment.

The bottom line is that if the forecast stays on track we could have light and scattered rain Friday afternoon, Friday night, and Saturday morning. Other than that it looks pretty comfortable with temps in the upper 70s or low 80s.

We have some great events in the area this weekend. The big ones on my list are the car show at Eagle Creek Pub and the grand opening party at Fisher’s Camp Resort. There s also a ride for the Crivitz Rescue Squad, the Wagner VFD picnic, and a 100th anniversary party for the High Falls dam by where the snowmobile radar runs and the water ski shows are held by Boat Landing #3 on High Falls Flowage.

Yesterday brought some enlightenment as to why my berry bushes are under performing. I went out to check what was a bumper crop of black raspberries, only to find every ripe berry stripped from the branches. As we were out there guessing at what at all of those berries, a chippy showed us. Apparently he ran up the cane, bent it down, and stripped the berries.

That explains a lot. About 3 weeks ago the yard was just infested with chippies. They are fine until they start getting into the house and stuff like that. About the time that I was ready to do something about it, they were suddenly scarce. Now I know why. They are all down in my berry patch.

Other than that there isn’t much to report.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday July 27th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The weekend weather worked out ok for the most part. Saturday morning brought rain, but it cleared up about 1pm. Late afternoon we had about a 10 or 15 minute downpour, and then the skies parted.

The afternoon downpour was a dandy. I was out chopping wood for the grill when it came. I was hot anyway, and being the stubborn one, I kept chopping wood. The rain just kept coming with increasing intensity until it was really hammering. Finally I was driven into the woodshed, and by that time it was funny. The previously seasoned oak that I split up took a lot of camper’s helper to get started in the grills.

Sunday and Monday were nice days but on the hot side. You will have that in late July, that is what beaches and rivers are for.

Today is another warm one, and there is a little extra humidity too. There will be a lot of extra humidity when the storm that is hitting Rhinelander now hits us.

The rain for today and tonight looks like it will be heavy somewhere. A variety of sources brought a variety of opinions on where. They all agree that it will rain, but they vary in how much could fall here. The HPC has it staying north, and us getting 0.75-1.25″. The GFS had similar numbers with1.0-1.5″, and the normally conservative NAM had us getting hit good and weighed in with a possible 1.5-3″. These are QPF numbers for the next 60 hours.

Looking at the US radar animation, the NAM might be onto something.

We are in a fairly typical summer pattern where a dome of hot humid air tries to push north into the region. As it encounters the cooler air to the north, the line between the two sets up quite a battleground for the formation of storms.

Often the storms follow distinct paths illustrating the line between the two air masses. Sometimes waves of the storm come one after another like train cars on a rail right down that line. That is where we get stuff like the horrible flooding in Milwaukee, recent flooding in the Fox Valley, the flooding in the Dells a few summers ago,  and the 9″ of rain in one night in the Peshtigo River watershed a few summers ago.

Right now the radar looks like it is going to train on the Pesh watershed. I say bring it. Yes we have had almost 14″ of rain since June 1, but we only had something like 2.54″ between Jan1 and June 1, and 6 years of drought before that. It is coming around nicely, but 6 years of drought is a big deficit to recover from.

I recall a discussion over the weekend about the gators (mosquitoes). I hardly ever used Repel in May and most of June was pretty good. The last few weekends have found them back to normal. The good news is that I haven’t seen a tick in 6 weeks.

I have been seeing a lot of deer moving around the past few days. I am not sure what draws ’em up to the road, but there have been a lot. Maybe it is the full moon.

Also in the critter department I spotted a couple of different birds along the Peshtigo this weekend. There was an osprey that I have seen and taken pictures of before, but this time he kept some canopy between him and I. I tried, but he was faster.

This guy was a big bird. I saw him coming and got off a couple of frames as he came by. This is the best one.

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We have some pretty fun events this weekend..

The weekend weather looks pretty good 4 days out. The NWS has us for a nice weekend with comfortable temps in the upper 70s or low 80s. A couple of the forecast models introduced some scattered rain, but it was all random spots in the 0.01-0.1″ per 6 hour range. I will keep an eye on it, but right now the weekend weather looks nice.

That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday July 23rd, 2010 Late Update

Greetings and welcome!

5PM Update

The latest runs of the forecast models are pretty unanimous that the rain will be to the south of us. The TV and the HPC are showing a little rain in the morning and only scattered showers in the afternoon. The NAM and GFS don’t even think much of that idea, skipping the morning rain completely and leaving the chance of a scattered shower in the afternoon.

Here is the important part.. None of them showed a QPF of over a quarter inch. Most (3/4) plots showed us in the 0.01-0.1″ band.

It isn’t carved in stone, but it sounds good to me.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Am Update

Here we are at the Friday of Hog Wrestling weekend at the Caldron Falls Bar. I drove past there yesterday and they were well along in the set up of the tents and stuff. It is a big deal, not just for the Caldron Falls Bar, but for every one around here.

There is also usually a big law enforcement push in this area over the weekend. Have a great time, but use designated drivers, use a shuttle, or stay put when happy hour starts. Whatever, just don’t play the OWI game.

We had a little more rain Thursday. It started about 11am and was pretty steady. I recalled not having to change the intermittent wipers all of the way to town and back, thinking now THAT is a steady rain. I am not sure what is in the bucket, but I emptied it Wednesday, so it should be an accurate total for the storm. I will guess at an inch r so, but the bucket will tell in a couple of hours when the sun comes up.

The TV said that some areas by Milwaukee saw as much as 8″ of rain out of that storm. Wow. It pushed them, Green Bay and probably some of the Fox Valley stations into all time record rainfall for July.

The rain is expected to stop for a while today before redeveloping for Friday night and Saturday morning. The forecast now is for rain/T-storms up to about noon and then only scattered stuff as the storm whisks off to the east.

That is going to be hard to call. If the storm follows the path of the last two with the heavy stuff downstate and us only in the northern reaches of the rain,  it will work out. If the heavy stuff pushes a little farther north we could see more and longer rain. Both scenarios exist in the models.

I am leaning toward it following the last couple of storms, and the heaviest stuff going south of us. The battleground seems to have moved 100 miles south, and chances are that is where the next storm will hit the most.

My guess is that it will rain until about noon Saturday, maybe a little later, and then give way to a nice weekend. Sunday is supposed to be sunny & 80.

Along that same line the rain Tuesday and Thursday did not impact the Peshtigo River watershed as much as it hit here or downstate. No big deal, it is still running above normal and should be for the weekend. The Menominee has consistently peaked over 2,000cfs this week, again great water for this time of year. Whitewater rafting remains good and the rivers should go up with Thursday and Friday night’s rain.

I almost forgot to mention that this weekend is the Town of Doty VFD picnic. See Tuesday’s report for details on that and hog wrestling. Be aware that here is also a big grand opening party coming up next weekend at Fisher’s camp.

Well I am going to run along. I will return with any thing that I missed. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB