Tuesday October 26th, 2010-Storm Watch
Greetings and welcome!
The storm is now under way. So far it is no big deal but it is just getting started. Please follow my updates on the Big Snow Page.
Thanks,
RJB
October 2010
Monday October 25th, 2010-Weather Alert
Greetings and welcome!
It looks like we have some severe weather headed our way for Monday night-Wednesday.
Forecast models are showing an unusually powerful storm headed our way early this week. The storm is expected to form in the southwest, pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture and energy, and track north over Minnesota into some pretty cold air.
The storm is consistent across the GFS, NAM, and HPC forecasts as being unusually strong. A typical storm around these parts has a central pressure from about 988-992MB on the strong side and weaker ones in the 998 range. This one is showing peak central pressures as low as 960 and 964 across all of the sources. Going into the 970s is a big storm for us, 960s is pretty significant.
The end result will be some rain, a lot of strong winds, a chance of thunderstorms, and I will go out on a limb and say a snowy finish.
The fun should start about Monday night with some rain and a little wind. The first precipitation shield could bring decent rains and thunderstorms. As the storm moves closer it is shown strengthening dramatically. We should see the winds pick up and more rain as the low passes to the NW of us.
The pressure gradient on the storm is showing as being very dramatic. Late Tuesday night at the GFS s showing a central pressure of 960MB over International Falls and a 988Mb here. That is pretty significant.
The NWS has issued a high wind watch. Reading through it they are looking at a possibility of 40mph sustained winds gusting to 55mph. Their forecast is somewhat more reserved than that, with winds Tuesday 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 50 mph.
The after Packers weather guy just was talking about the storm saying that the central pressure on the storm was close to that of a cat 3 hurricane. He said that because of friction from surface features the winds didn’t get quite as high. His wind gusts were showing max peaks in the 50-60mph range.
To make things extra interesting, we just had a decent storm come through with about 1.3″ of rain. That will make the ground soggy and trees easier to tip. In our favor, most of the leaves are down.
This isn’t the end of days, it is just a very strong fall storm. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the power go out and a few trees down. Travel probably won’t be much fun between the wind and rain.
And…
Behind the storm we should see much colder air. With the back of the storm bringing unsettled weather, some wind driven snow is not out of the question. So far I am alone in that forecast, but the upper layers look cold enough and there is precip possible.
I will be spending some of today getting ready. There are tarps to secure, stuff to button down, I’ll have the generator gassed up and running, and a sharp chain and supplies for the chain saw. My new trick is to freeze a few gallons of drinking water, which does double duty as ice blocks in the fridge and freezer if the power goes out. I will draw a 6 gallon jug or two for the flush, and bring in a rack of firewood. Going into the potential of a day or two without power with a fresh shower and laundry done seems like a good idea. I will hit the gas station and do some grocery shopping too.
When it turns out not to be so bad, I still will be way ahead by doing the week’s errands on the nicest day of the week. If it ends up nasty, I’ll be ready.
As always I will report on the storm as it is in progress. As long as the cell towers stay up, I can update with the generator if the power goes out. I will also check on people’s places if I think it is warranted.
The skeptic in me has a hard time believing that it will end up as dramatic as it sounds, but it could. Virtually all of my sources are on board with the same scenario.
It really raised my eyebrows when I saw central pressures in the 960s. Surely it had to be a fluke. Then the TV weather guy said that it was close to as deep as a cat 3 hurricane, and maybe I’m not just being excitable again.
Whatever the case, you should be aware of the possibility of some big weather. I will be on it with updates.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Tuesday October 19th, 2010
Greetings and welcome!
Sorry to have missed last Friday’s report. There was just too much going on to get one put together. This week does not look any better, so this is probably it for this week.
This week is crunch time around here. As happens every fall, we have been busy with computer repairs and web sites, and now I am way behind on my outside work. Looking at the GFS, the weather is going to get ugly next week, so it is time to scamper around madly catching up on pre-winter stuff.
The top of the list is stuff that needs to be done before the ground freezes and stuff that needs to be done before it goes under 50 for a daytime high. There is still dirt to be moved, the roof needs some patching, the truck needs service, and anything that needs paint or calk needs it this week.
Next week looks ugly for weather. The GFS is pretty consistent with returning us to a wet and active pattern. We should see a couple of bigger storms.
We could also see our first accumulating snow of 2010. A few of the storms have moisture and cold enough upper air temperatures that snow next week is likely. One or two have the potential to not just be a dusting on the grass, but actual inches of snow. It won’t last long, the ground is frozen and the sun is still a little too warm. It could get sloppy for outside work though.
The fall color season has no come and gone for the most part. The players most recently are the oaks and the tamaracks. The tamaracks are lighting up the swamps with their gold colors. Other than them, it is the oaks that bring the remaining color. It is pretty typical for late October.
Slug asked last week about my winter predictions. Buckle up. That is my winter prediction. According to the CPC, we will be between colder than normal temps stretching into NW WI, and the wetter than normal weather expected for SE WI and points southeast. On paper anyway, that would put us into the snow zone, with some variability going either way.
Watching recent weather, we have been seeing stretches of wet weather and stretches of warmer than normal and dry weather. I think that might be a good peek at the future.
I am expecting significant precip this winter, but not all of it snow. The path of some of the bigger fall storms would have brought rain, then snow behind it. I would expect to see a good ice base this winter.
We have also seen some wide swings in temperatures, and I’d expect that to continue. It would be nice if the 10-15º above normal stuff came in January, negating the weeks of sub-zero stuff that can make that month unfun. We have been getting away with that the last few winters, so I wouldn’t count on it.
This winter we will have LaNina conditions. LaNina is like ElNino, but the cold phase. We have been in LaNina conditions since early summer when the drought turned around. For comparison, recent LaNina years were 98-99, 2000-2001, early 06, and 2007-2008.
I am expecting a lot of snow and cold. The LaNina flow generally is out of the Northwest for us. That means those bitter cold waves behind storms should be common. While I am not expecting 20″ inches of rain in two months like we had this summer, I do expect that we will break the streak of two winters without a foot or more out of a single snowstorm. We have been seeing storms find their way here with the precip. (finally)
I am also seeing indications in nature that she is ready for a big winter. It has been 8-10 years since we saw really huge spring runoff on area rivers, and I am expecting that to turn around any time now.
Where do I get that? There are saplings growing in the overflow chutes carved out from high water years past. If they could survive, there would be a big tree there. If they get much bigger, they might be big enough to survive the high water and ice flow. History says that they can’t be there, so my projection of that is that we should be having a big river any time now to come and clean them out.
There are also some indications in nature that we might be in for a big winter. It is clearly the year of the mouse. They hae been invading houses and cabins around here in force this year. I have traps, D-Con and a cat, and still have mice coming in to replace the recently deceased ones. I am not alone in this, it is the talk of the neighborhood.
There are a lot of other litle hints in nature that this might not be the winter that we have been getting used to the past few years.
Well, I have to run along. I have a meeting in a few minutes, and need to go.
As I mentioned, I am planning on spending the rest of the week on outside work, so I am not planning on a late week report. I will likely return to put out the mothballs and mouse traps here and direct people over to the Big Snow page. In time I will be there doing daily reports, but until the snowmobile season comes up they will more likely be about weekly.
I am also proud to be hosting no less than 5 area snowmobile clubs’ web sites this year, plus my Big Sow Page. I have my work cut out for me there, and again, it is crunch time getting everything ready for the season. I finally got what I wanted, now it is time to be good at it.
That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Tuesday October 12th, 2010
Greetings and welcome!
It is another spectacular Fall day outside. The sun is shining, and the temp is almost up to 63. This wonderful Fall weather in the 60s and 70s has been great for the past week.
It is easy to forget how ugly that it could be right now, and expect this weather all of the time. I recall the year that I painted up the photo van. I was shooting the top coat still at 10pm on Oct 10th. The 11th brought four or five inches of short lived snow, and the temp never went back above 50 that fall. We have it pretty good this year.
The fall colors are in their late prime. The red oaks are red indeed. The aspens came into golds and yellows this week. Between those, the sumacs, and the color from the underbrush there is still some fall color going on. The woods is getting pretty thin on leaves, but there is still some late stuff. Yesterday I saw that the tamaracks are changing over to gold, and those always add a nice splash of color.
The ferns and field grasses have died back and the waist high green fields of summer are now brown and mostly laying down.
I have not had too many wildlife sightings since the last visit here. Probably the high point was when I spotted what I ID’d as a falcon or kestrel when we were out cutting firewood Saturday.
I will admit that my bird of prey identification, like my tree identification, needs work. I haven’t had a botany class in 20 years, so telling an aspen from a cottonwood (all called popple around here) is not my strong suit. I didn’t even know we had American Kestrels and Peregrine Falcons around here until a few years ago. One of these days I have to sit down and do a little studying.
The big action with the wildlife recently has been inside. This must be the year of the mouse. I am not the only one that has been overrun by them. I have never seen so many. I fixed the hole that they chewed behind the shower drain, I ran a trap line, and it still wasn’t enough. I finally gave up on the traps and went for the D-Con. That worked, and I have been mouse free for a couple of days.
Outside the vermin of the day award probably should go to the gnats. They are hit and miss, but when you hit they are plentiful. There are also some rather aggressive house flies that quickly enter the house when the door opens.
Beyond those minor annoyances, it is a beautiful day in the neighborhood, the weather has been great recently.
This week and last week has brought a lot of inside work. I have a few snowmobile club web sites in process, my glow in the dark store, and I have been really stepping up the computer service/repair and WiFi business.
I am getting pretty nervous about my outside work not getting done, so I am considering turning the computers off for a few days off later this week to tackle pre-winter preparations outside. I might not have a Friday report as a result. History shows that it usually doesn’t work out that way, there is always something for you to be aware of, and I end up doing a report.
It is also getting to be that time of season that I stop updating here and head over to the snowmobiling page. There isn’t snow yet, but there are a lot of events and preparations going on. People are well aware of the pending season and interest is up. I don’t think that this is my last report here for the season, but it is one of them.
An example is this week. I don’t have any local events for this weekend, but the Snowmobile USA show is in Milwaukee this weekend. There is also a Bear Point Sno-Cruiser’s snowmobile club meeting this Saturday too.
Looking at the GFS, we have a little rain expected for tomorrow, then more nice weather until early next week. There are chances for the first snowflakes about 10/24 and a better chance about 10/29.
That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB