2010

Tuesday June 22nd, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The weather forecasts for Friday and Monday didn’t quite work out the way that they were expected to. The Friday storm that was supposed to come our way with potentially severe weather ended up from about Madison south and very strong south of the IL/WI border.

In the case of Monday’s storm it was the opposite. It was expected to stay downstate and miss us, but it didn’t get the memo, and we saw some pretty good rains.

The rain Monday night was heavy in spots. About 10pm I was near High Falls and the roads had huge puddles that pulled the truck around and occasionally splashed over the hood. They saw a lot of rain in a short time. I actually saw lightning flash a few times, something that we haven’t had a lot of so far.

Speaking of predictions that didn’t come true, I missed my river level guess by about 2″ last weekend. The river still came up and was great for rafting, but without Friday’s rain it was lower than I had predicted. No big deal, people had a blast.

Between yesterday’s rain and the rain possible tomorrow I would expect continued good water levels for rafting this weekend.

The insect world is alive and well this second day of summer. The gypsy moths have been chewing a lot of oak trees that I saw in my travels. There are a lot of bare or near bare crowns in the oak forests this week.

I still have not had a big issue with mosquitoes yet this year. The one spot that I walk that is like a Deep Woods Off! commercial isn’t that way this year at all. I am not aware of being victim of a gator bite in the last two weeks. A few horse flies tried buzzing around in my new short cropped hair last weekend, and the wood ticks are still present in force, but it has not been a particularly buggy summer.

As I mentioned above it is the second day of summer. After this it is all downhill for length of day until about the third week in December. For now we get wonderfully long days and for the short term, sunsets north of due west.

Critter sightings were up a little this week. Sunday morning I saw some geese float down the river and get surprised when they were swept into the rapids. They launched from the river right before they went into the big stuff. I can’t say that I have ever seen that before.

Other critter sightings include a badger, the standard deer and turkeys, and a small black bear about 1/4 mile from the house. The big moths have been tripping the motion detector on the flood lights, or more likely it was the bats running sorties on them.

In two weeks on July 5th the State of WI smoking ban goes into place. There will be no more smoking in bars, restaurants, or workplaces. It is a topic of great emotion on both sides so I am going to avoid it other than letting you know about it. Personally I will be trying the E version. I tried a disposable one from the casino smoke shop. It wasn’t good, but it showed enough promise that I ordered a better one.

Today was a hot one. We had to be in the 90s or close to it. There is also some humidity with dew points in the uncomfortable range of the low 60s. Between the two yoiu would think that we would get some T-storms. We will eventually, but today the atmosphere was too stable to get thunderheads brewing.

Later tonight and into tomorrow we will indeed see some rain. There is a lot of discussion on if the storm will swing south like Friday did or nail us like Monday’s storms. There are all of the ingredients for some strong storms, so someone will see heavy rain, T-storms, and maybe some severe weather. Right now it looks pretty statewide, it might not be an either/or situation.

Late Wednesday and Thursday look a little cooler and with less chances for rain. Friday brings the beginning of what could be a wet weekend. The GFS is showing several waves of rain associated with approaching low pressure hitting over the weekend. QPFs are in the 1-2″‘ range.

Because it is so far out and the models have been struggling lately I am going to suggest watching later forecasts for changes. It might not be all that it is cracked up to be. It could just as easily go south, or come early/ late weekend as hit us. The NWS also advises looking for future updates, and for now offered a 40% chance of rain across the weekend.

There are a few events this weekend. Here is the list so far..

Saturday July 3rd the Dark Horse Band featuring Tommy Greywolf (formerly fidlist for Brooks & Dunn) will be performing here at Rapid’s Resort. The show starts @ 9pm. These guys come very highly recommended by me. Catch this one if you like good country, and especially with Tommy G.

My apologies that I was so late today. It was an unusual day. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday June 18th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

One quick final update..

It looks like the severe stuff should stay mostly  south of us today and tonight. Checking the RUC model, it is showing less and less of a storm threat for us tonight with lower CAPE and helicity numbers than before. The threat level rises as you go south of Green Bay, and south of the IL/WI border, wow.

At the moment not much is going on here. It is a hot humid day with some high clouds. There were a few stray showers in western WI this afternoon, but nothing closer than about Wausau. The focus of the storm seems to be from about mid-state south, and still in western WI.

It is my guess that things will pick up late afternoon between about 4pm and sunset. That would be our highest risk window. Behind that the TV forecast animation only shows stray showers after 10pm, and clearing skies by midnight. There is a line of clouds on the satellite showing that we could still see a line of storms later this afternoon and early evening.

I am not saying that we are off of the hook, but the severe weather chances and rain chances look less ominous than they did yesterday.

It looks like my Peshtigo River prediction might fall an inch short. Kosir’s is reporting a +4″ level right now, I predicted +6″ for tomorrow noon. I needed an inch bump up from Tuesday’s rain and only saw 0.3″ so far. The other inch coming from the storm could very well still come. It doesn’t really matter, the rivers are both big fun this weekend at current levels. The late week 2″ boost was just a bonus. It could still come.

Have a good weekend!

RJB

Thursday June 17th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It looks like things are shaping up about the way that I expected for the weeekend. The Peshtigo River is running at a very fun +4.5″ right now, and will rise for the weekend. Slug sent in a comment that the Menominee River is up 3 1/2 feet by him.

The weekend ahead looks nice too with the exception of Friday/Friday night. Tonight and into Friday we are expecting some showers and thunderstorms as a warm front comes into the area. Not too far behind it is a cold front, and that one could bring severe weather.

The cold front is expected to get to us Friday afternoon or night. The models show it coming through with 0.5″ of rain in the NAM. The GFS is showing what I would think is convective feedback, and has QPFs in the 2″ range.

More important, the cold front will bring the ingredients for severe weather. The NWS forecast discussion mentioned CAPE values in the 3500 j/kg range. That is very unstable air. Between that, the shear, jet stream support and other ingredients, Friday could get ugly. From the NWS forecast discussion..

THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO EDGE INTO WSTRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON… WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT ADVECTING A VERY WARM…MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS (USING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S) SHOW STG INSTABILITY…WITH CAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER NC/C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON…AIDED BY THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK…AND INCREASING SFC/850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS…SO SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY. A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EVENT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR GRB CWA ON FRI AFT/EVG.

Sounds ominous.

Behind the cold front it looks like we are in for a great weekend. Look for a sunny day in the upper 70s Saturday, and more of the same on Sunday but with some increasing clouds. Lows in the 50s will make comfortable sleeping and campfire weather.

The whitewater rafting is going to be huge fun this weekend. Both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are running at really fun levels. The Peshtigo is actually over it’s median flow, and the Menominee did it yesterday. The menom is between 2,000 and 2,500cfs, and the Peshtigo 452cfs (+4.5″).

I will stick to my prediction that the Pesh will rise tomorrow and beyond from Tuesday’s rain, and bring 6+ inches for the weekend. If the T-storms tomorrow add up according to predictions, it will end up (maybe much)  higher. The Menom should be in between 2000 and 2500, again a huge fun level.

I don’t have any new events, but here is my update list..

There is a car show at Lakewood Pavillion

The Crandon Racetrack is having a fan appreciation weekend

The Dark Horse Band will be at the Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend.

and Chris’ original list..

Next weekend is huge for events. The Dark Horse band will be at Rapids, and they  are bringing Tommy Graywolf, a really excellent fiddler. The band is great and TG is amazing. (The Dark Horse guys will be playing Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend too.)

Well, that is my story and I’m sticking to it. Come rafting this weekend, the rivers are bigger than they have been all year. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday June 16th, 2010

Paddler’s Alert- Heavy rain yesterday will bring the Peshtigo River to above normal levels for the weekend, and the Menominee River too..

The rain yesterday was very generous. We saw a lot here, but nothing like the northern and western Peshtigo River watershed saw. They had productive rain all day, and enough to clearly lift the river for late week and the weekend. At the end of the storm this big blob of yellow, orange, and red on the radar camped right over the watershed for a couple of hours. WOW.

The Menominee River watershed was in play as well, and they saw at least an inch of rain, and more likely two.

If you are even remotely interested in whitewater rafting/paddling, clear the calendar for the weekend and call Kosir’s. There is already enough rain down to make the river(s) great this weekend, and more rain is on tap for Thursday and Friday.

The weekend looks warm with temps in the 80s and a minor (30%) chance of rain Sunday.

—

Ok, Im back..

Here is a bad screen shot of the radar returns this morning along with a rough outline of the Peshtigo River watershed.

It is hard to make out, but the yellow is 1.5-2″ of rain and the orange is 2-3″. Those same returns showed us in the half inch band, and no way. The USGS gauge at Kosir’s showed about 2/3″ and that is usually half of my bucket.

Let’s settle out of court for we saw a lot of rain, and the far reaches of the Peshtigo River watershed saw a lot of heavy rain. That will bring the river up in 2-3 days and keep it there for 3-5. That is perfectly timed for the weekend.

Thursday night to Friday there are thunderstorms expected that will give it a last minute boost. Those are forecast to clear out in time for Saturday morning. Sunday there is a minor chance of showers (30%) as the next storm approaches.

At this point since it is hard to quantify the rainfall beyond heavy, it is hard to pin down a number.  I am very comfortable with predicting a +6″ or better for Saturday’s noon Peshtigo River rafting trip with Kosir’s, and probably more.

Likewise the Menominee River watershed saw some action yesterday. The gauge up there shows an inch, and I know from watching the radar that their watershed definitely saw some rain. That river too will be prime for the weekend.

The storm didn’t look like much on the models, and I was looking at the prospect of the rivers falling from last weekend’s levels. That is not going to happen. This weekend should be even better than last weekend.

Chris made mention that people would want to know that if the water comes up as I expect it to that they will be running rafts as well as the funyaks on the river. I leave those decisions up to Kosir’s, but usually above about +4″ you can do a raft. We are probably at +5 now and it will rise before the weekend.

The whitewater stretches are not the only places that benefitted from the rain. I checked a few trout streams yesterday and they are running good. Likewise my drive-by observation of Waubee Lake levels saw that it was significantly recovered. It isn’t back to normal, but it is clearly up.

I did come up with a few more events. I will keep working on it. In addition to the list in yesterday’s report..

There is a car show at Lakewood Pavillion

The Crandon Racetrack is having a fan appreciation weekend

The Dark Horse Band will be at the Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend.

Well, today looks like one of two nice days this week so I am off to go and play outside. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB