2010

Tuesday June 15th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

Wow what a weekend! If you weren’t here you probably should have been. The weather turned out pretty good. It was a cloudy and cool weekend where it only rained a little at night.

The whitewater rivers were huge fun last weekend. With levels quickly rising the Peshtigo was a blast for a lot of people. A rising river is pushier and bigger, and that is what we got. I predicted +2″ and well over 300cfs for the Saturday noon rafting trip. That is one prediction that came home right on the mark. There were a lot of people very happy about that.

But wait.. It wasn’t over yet. The river continued to rise, and Sunday saw levels go past +4″ and close to 450cfs. It probably peaked at about +5″ about midnight Monday morning.

The fun was in full swing on the Menominee River. The Menom came up a full two feet between last Tuesday and last Saturday, and went from 96 year record lows (5-600cfs) to very close to it’s median flow. People fortunate enough to raft that last weekend found water levels over 2,200cfs. I don’t have pictures yet, but years around that river tell me that there were big waves and crashes, and that a lot of people had a lot of fun.

We also saw a few kayakers this weekend. In a very unusual scenario, the Wolf River did not share in our rising water bounty. Usually the Wolf is a good crystal ball for the Pesh. The Wolf rises about a day faster, and the rivers have adjoining watersheds and similar rainfall. For some reason the Pesh peaked out at about 440cfs yesterday, and the Wolf is peaking at 250 today. That is a pretty uncommon scenario, but it was real, and as a result I got to see some of my hardboating friends last weekend.

There were quite a few web site visitors around last weekend. Thank you to all of the people that said hello. Greatly appreciated were the two web site visitors that slipped me a fiver as a tip for what I do here. The suggestion of ‘have a beer on us’ was taken to heart, thank you.

Overall it was a heck of a fun weekend. I am sure that I am not the only one that really filled it up or that ended up pretty worn out.

If you weren’t here, don’t worry about it, it looks like we are in for another great weekend next weekend. The forecast is for a wet week early and late, with Wednesday, Thursday, and the weekend dry.

Yesterday we had some scattered showers, and it picked up this morning. As I type this a 7am there is a big blob of rain and thunderstorms heading for our region, and it looks like it will go off and on until early Wednesday. Again Friday we are expecting rain, and then the GFS has it clear in time for a nice weekend.

As far as the rivers and the rafting go, we should still be in good shape. The rain today could get heavy at times, and the late week rain should boost the river about the time the early week rain starts peaking the river Thursday and Friday. Right now the HPC has the week’s rainfall predicted at 1.25-1.5″, but we could see most of that today.

The Friday storm is not shown as a huge rain producer, but with temps in the mid-80s forecast, I’d deduce that there might be some thunderstorms and possible heavy rain. At the moment the jet stream forecast and GFS would put us in the focal point of that.

This coming weekend is prime time for events.

I am pretty sure that there will be additions to that list as the week progresses.

The turnaround on the drought has been nothing short of miraculous. Two weeks ago I was talking about a 100 year drought, and D-3 and D-4 extreme drought conditions. Today the rivers are pretty normal, the ground is good and wet, and there were actually big puddles for the ATV, mud truck, and enduro bike guys to enjoy last weekend.  The green world is flourishing and vigorously growing as a result of the rain. I will be checking out Waubee Lake levels later today when I go that way, but I expect some recovery.

I expect to be back tomorrow with another update. I will likely find events for Lakewood and Townsend and points west when I go that way today. The forecast will have updates, and I will work on some pictures too.

In the meantime have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday June 11th, 2010

Storm to clear out faster than expected, nice weekend ahead!

Greetings and welcome!

The weather picture is a lot clearer this morning. The models and forecasts have come into pretty good agreement on things, and it is very favorable for the weekend.

The storm is what some forecasters refer to as a double barrel low pressure. There are two associated storms in a row. Earlier forecasts had the first one hitting today, and the second hitting Saturday into Sunday.

Yesterday one of the models started flirting with the idea of the second storm going well south of us and leaving us with a good weekend. Today the rest are on board with that.

The HPC is probably the most aggressive with the rain, showing <0.25″ between Saturday at 6am and noon. After Saturday noon there is only a minor chance of rain throughout the models.

The first wave of the storm has passed through and it was wet. As of 11am the big wave is here. There is ongoing rain, thunder, and it is as dark out as if it were 9pm at night. The rainfall is probbly in the 1.5-2″ per hour range, it is really hammering out there. We have seen a lot of rain, and there is a lot more coming in the near future.

The Peshtigo did come up this morning as I predicted. Even Chris doubted it, but I said no, there is another push coming from the mid-week heavy rain in the far reaches of the watershed. It just takes 3 days to get here. It showed a rise this morning finally.

As of this morning the Pesh is higher than it has been since April 10th. (click the graph)

Those weekends were in the 270-280CFS range, and we are running 239 as of 8am. That will continue to rise from the Tuesday/Wednesday rain, plus it is a total deluge outside. That will raise it too. I am going big here and predicting in excess of 300cfs and over +2″ for Saturday’s noon rafting trip on the Pesh.

The other thing here is that a rising river is just plain more fun. The pushier water makes the waves bigger, and the splashes more fun. This will be a rising river with some force behind it. There are going to be some great times on the river this weekend.

People running the Menominee River are in for a treat too. Based on current flow and water to come, that should hit 2,000cfs this weekend. That river is so much fun when it gets big.

I know a lot of you don’t raft or care about it. This is a big deal for me. Between the drought and people deciding that my pictures would be a good place to save a buck in a bad economy, I was down to about 16% of my normal earnings last quarter. Yes I am pretty excited that the drought turned around in such an amazing way.

I also want to point out that this drought busting wet stretch was the one that I was looking for early in spring when the El Nino started fading. I was kind of hoping for it in March so that we could snowmobile on it and then raft on it in spring, but it came much later.

Well the radar is showing the back of the big storm already to Wausau, and not much of anything behind it. It looks like the weekend will turn out ok for weather and great for rafting.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

June 10, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

By all accounts we could see a couple of inches of rain over the next 3 or 4 days. The HPC offered this impressive graphic this morning. It is the rainfall forecast from 6am Wed to 6am Monday, showing 2.5-3″.  (Time stamp is GMT, we are GMT -6 hours)

They also offer one with reduced totals, with them dialed back to 1.75-2″. Either way it looks like rain ahead.

Here are my various sources..

NAM model- Rain Friday &  Sunday, but not Saturday, 1.25-1.75″ total rain.

GFS model-1.0-1.25″ of rain Friday, Saturday only minor rain with 6 hour rainfall totals of 0.01-0.1″, rain Saturday night, Sunday no rain.

HPC- Rain Friday, Friday night and Saturday, clears out for Sunday, 2.5-3″ by Sunday 6am,  6am Sunday-6am Tuesday 0.1-0.25″ rain.

NWS- The NWS did not list precip forecasts, just percentages, 60% tonight, 90% Friday, 60% Friday night, 70% Saturday, 50% Saturday night, 30% Sunday.

So the NAM and GFS say we will have a decent Saturday, the NWS and HPC are going for Sunday. All agree that Friday will get wet with an inch or more of rain.

Looking through all of this I was reminded of some of the more hyped snow storms that never came. Southern storm, multiple ideas in the forecasts, and excitement about the possibility of precip all are familiar elements in the story. Sometimes it works out, often it ends up less that the excitement merited.

Both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are up. The Menom was struggling to hit 600cfs and is now running a foot and a half higher, at the mean flow for today, of 1,800cfs. That is a bet for rafting.

The Peshtigo is up from a rocky 120cfs to a very runnable 214. That brought it from below -6 to about -1 or -2.  In my opinion anything over 200 or -2 is great on the Pesh, and more is better. By my prediction we will see it rise a bit yet, and yes, well above zero for the weekend, unless we get skunked Friday.

I believe that will rise more this week from Tuesday’s rain in the far reaches of the watershed, but the 100 year drought things throws a new dynamic into it. It is not clear yet if it will just suck into the dry swamps or come down the river for us to play in. We should know tomorrow.

Either way both rivers are good to go for paddling this weekend, and heavy rains Friday should boost them more.

The whitewater rivers are not the only beneficiaries of our recent rain. The Menominee River is up a foot and a half in some flat water ares. Area lakes should rise as well, and the green world is very happy about the rain. I am not sure how long it will take to perc down into wells, but it has to help those too.

Late yesterday afternoon I went for a get out of the house ride. On the way to the gas station there was a double rainbow as the emerging sun passed through the last of the rain off to our east. It was big and vivid, a real dandy rainbow.

Sunset over the flowage was spectacular as the last clouds masked and reflected the sun’s last rays in amazing ways. I was somewhere between really relaxed and doing back flips over forgetting the camera between the sunset and the rainbow.

As dusk came I headed over to a secret spot in the Nicolet to watch and listen to the night come. The tree frogs were out in force with choruses that responded like waves. The whippoorwills were out in force in quite a few spots, and most insistent with their calls. On the way there and back I must have swerved the truck at least 10 times to dodge the woodcocks in the road.

On the way out I spotted a really big owl, with a wingspan of about half or two  thirds of mine. I didn’t get a real good look, but it was big and flew like an owl on the hunt, swooping down out of a tree and gliding after some unseen prey.

It was a good night and crawling back into the woods and being quiet came with many rewards.

In events this weekend..

I will update again tomorrow. I think things will be a little clearer then with the weather.

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday June 8th, 2010-9pm update

9pm

It has rained almost all day. My planter shows 7/8″ as of 9pm and it is still coming.

According to the radar returns the rain spanked both the Peshtigo and Menominee River watersheds in a grand way. Key areas of the Peshtigo watershed saw an estimated 2-3″ of rainfall, though the Accuweather radar estimate is closer to 4-6″. That might be a little high.

Either way the result is the same, rafting will be the best that it has been so far this summer this coming week and weekend. The recent past has been amazing with all of the rain, and it has been hitting just right in the key section of the Pesh watershed.

The creeks in the upper watershed of the Peshtigo are like a series of small capillaries. When we get a lot of rain up that way, the river takes 2-3 days to come up, and it stays there for a few (2-5) days.  We are seeing the rise from the Saturday storm yesterday and today, and the rain today is adding to that. The last three storms really bulls eyed the upper reaches of the watershed.

The last four weeks of low water really humbled the Peshtigo, and right in prime season when a lot of people come rafting. For it to turn around this fast is pretty amazing.

We will have some wild times on the rivers this weekend. A rising river is always extra fun, and they will be rising with some gusto from the rain that is already down. With the prospect of more rain tomorrow and another inch or two Friday, I am pumped up like a 6 year old on his third Red Bull.

RJB

Early afternoon

Greetings and welcome!

There is the sweet sound of rain on the roof this afternoon.

The forecast changed a little since yesterday, and the rain came earlier and stronger than predicted. We could see 0.5-1.0″ of rain today. It is hitting the Peshtigo and Menominee River watersheds very nicely with wave after wave of yellow and orange on the radar. There is also a chance of more rain tomorrow, mostly north of Green Bay and in the UP.

It is a little early to call, but I would expect the whitewater rafting to be making a huge comeback this weekend. Both rivers are up already from past rains, and if you look at the HPC QPF for the week, we are looking at 2″ of rain for the week by Saturday morning, and it could go up, the next higher band is close. If we have 2″ of rain this week, those rivers will come up big and offer great rafting this weekend, possibly the best of 2010 so far.

The weekend storm looks to be on track. Friday and Early Saturday morning should be wet, but Saturday should only bring a minor chance of rain(QPF=<0.1″/6 hours). Sunday brings a better chance of rain and again a chance of measurable precip. That is what the models show today anyway. Between a decent weekend possible and 2″ of rain between now and then, I am pretty excited about it.

See yesterday’s update for more.

RJB