2010

March 17th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

Happy St. Patrick’s Day.

It is a nice one indeed. It is sunny and 55, and it looks pretty inviting out there..

Yesterday we saw a high of 67.3 at Athelstane Weather. That is a pretty nice day. I didn’t get to play, I was a good boy and I worked a double yesterday so that I could play outside today. I did not know that it was 67..

I told you yesterday that it wouldn’t snow 15 or 20 inches for the weekend. The last three model runs agree. Now the storm is shown pivoting south of us and we would be lucky to see 1-3. LOL  But wait… It runs again at noon..

One thing that has been pretty consistant in the models is the breakdown of the big high pressure system that shielded us from storm after storm this winter. We could actually see stuff like Alberta Clippers, real southern storms, and some variability in our upcoming weather. It is actually a pretty stormy outlook, and it is not all nice. Some could get a little cold.

You guys really didn’t think it went from snowmobiling to sunny & 65 in 2 weeks didja? This was our spring tease. The NWS says 30s early next week heading for the 40s later. Our normal hi/lo in Rhinelander right now is 38/16. Fifty five or sixty is a nice day, but not the norm yet.

Well I am off to go and get some outside work done, and maybe dig up my obnoxious Irish shirt for later.

Have a good St Paddy’s Day and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday March 16th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It is another spectacular spring day outside. Our high of 59 is now 64 and rising, and our cloudy day with isolated showers is really a spectacular sunny day.

The new critter of the day yesterday was a flock of turkeys. They seem to like this area in spring, and they are back. I will see what else there is too see soon when I bail on work and go to stretch my legs a little.

We are looking at a nice week ahead right up to the weekend. From about Saturday on there will be a storm affecting the region.

Earlier model runs were showing us getting as much as 4-8 Sunday, but the in the midnight run they have pushed the snow part of the storm south. Our friends along the state line would enjoy similar totals if it held up, with us getting a little less, maybe 3-6.

The 6am model run looks very different. That one is not showing much rain for us. That shows snow starting Saturday morning and going until late Sunday night. The path of the low would be a bull’s eye for putting us in a lot of snow. The QPF on the storm is conservatively in the 1-1.75″ range with 1/4″ more possible. That is rainfall equivalent. Use about a 12:1 to figure snow depth.

It is just a forecast, and it will change again. Six hours ago it was a 2-4 maybe 3-6 event with some rain in the front. No I don’t believe that we are in for 12-18″ of snow, maybe going to 15-20. It is just what it shows now.

The GFS in particular is prone to convective feedback and overstating storms in general. At that point until it gets closer, shows some consistency, and is verifiable with other models, it is for entertainment only. I do expect some precip for the weekend, and it might get interesting. At the moment I am eying any dramatic totals with skepticism.

The one constant in the models is us getting some wind behind the storm.

The events for the weekend have not changed. We have the poker run with the Firelane Bar and the chicken dinner with the Stephenson VFD, both on Saturday.

Well I am off to get back to work so that I can escape before sunset and enjoy a little of the nice day.

Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Pi Day

Greetings and welcome!

Yes it is Pi Day- 3.14. I told Chris to come back in 5 years and I would be impressed, 3.14.15 @ 9:26 and 53 seconds. (3.141592653)

It is a blue ribbon Pi day indeed. The dreariness from last week has gone away. The rain, fog, wind and all of that stuff has been replaced by a sunny & 62 T-shirt day.

We are going to see a good bit of that this week, with today, Wednesday and Thursday holding promise of more of the same. Thursday could actually threaten 70 if everything lines up right.

Tuesday is the outlier, when higher pressure than we have now moves in, creating a minor disturbance. My maps are showing the sprinkles/light rain mostly in western WI, but the NWS is still predicting a chance of isolated showers and a cloudy day for us. Wednesday won’t be quite as warm, but it will be ramping back up for Thursday.

For the weekend we are looking at a gen-U-ine southern storm. This one could get interesting. When I looked last night the GFS was showing a path that would be favorable for good bit of rain, followed by a chance of 4-8″ of snow about Sunday with more possible Monday. I have my doubts, but that is what it is showing me.

We have some events this week. Monday brings the Crivitz Recreation Association banquet. That is a little like the Iron Snowshoe banquet with lots of raffles and nice prizes, dinner & happy hour.

Wednesday brings the wearin’ O the green for St Patties Day. Apparently it is also Glenn at Curve Inn’s birthday, and they will be having a party Wednesday afternoon and night with free corned beef & cabbage from 4pm till it is gone, and a DJ karaoke guy from 7pm on.

This weekend we have..

Something has come up, and I will have to finish my update later. In the meantime enjoy the nice weather and have a good Sunday.

________________________

Pi Day V2

Sorry, I had to go.

In the meantime, Jabber E-mailed in with another event. I thought it was the weekend of the 27th, it is this weekend.

The event in mind is the March Humm Drumm Poker Run with the Firelane Bar this Saturday the 20th. They will be Meeting at Firelane, Leaving at 11:00. Rapids Resort is the first stop, yes I will be working. Then it is off to Eagle Creek, Brown Jug, I Dont Knows in Middle Inlet, The Chippewa, then back to Firelane.

In other news, the day today was a nice one. Athelstane Weather showed 63.9 for a high. I saw the car gadget get as high as 65 in sunny areas and down to the upper 50s in secluded areas that were shaded and still held snow.

The warm weather has eaten a lot of snow, but there is still some in sheltered areas. The driveway and other gravel roads are soft in spots but firm in many areas. It again depends on how sheltered it is. It has not been a bad mud year, but you can find it easily enough.

The Peshtigo opened up by Kosir’s, but remains frozen upstream. The water is starting to run on top of the ice, usually the beginning of the end for the ice. The water is gathering in the low spots, and while they aren’t flooded, there is water there. Right now all that it will take is a little rain and some warm days to get it all rolling. It is running about+6″ right now, maybe a touch higher. It is just getting started.

The latest GFS model run has backed away from snow for late weekend. We are still expecting a weekend rain storm, but the latest version cheats us out of our 4-8″ follow through. It could easily change again.

The biggest change in the great outdoors was that the chippies came out over the past few days and are rather frisky. I could hear them calling back and forth in the yard and they were zooming back and forth rather energetically. Obviously they are happy about spring.

I have seen my first gnat, but only one. There were a few of those first white moths out the other night too. Even though it is a drab time of year, it is a wondrous one, as each day brings another bug, critter, or plant emerging for spring. It is a cool progression, and it peaks with the great greening of the land in May and June. That is an amazing transformation.

That is about it for today. Have a good Monday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday March 12th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It has been a foogy few days, and right now we still have a pretty good fog layer. I can just barely make out the outline of the trees by the creek about 600′ behind the house. The noon news reported anywhere from near zero visibility up to about 1/2 mile in the region.

The fog is expected to continue into tonight and possibly tomorrow. The increasing winds behind the storm are expected to break it up overnight or Saturday morning. In the meantime, there is a dense fog advisory, so be careful.

The heavier waves of the storm have passed. It looks like there will be a declining chance of scattered showers as the weekend progresses. We did see a couple of decent waves of rain out of our storms this week, but I would guess the rainfall between a half inch and an inch.

Over the weekend look for overcast days, some wind, and temps in the mid to upper 40s.

In events this weekend we have Bucket Golf at Dockside Saturday, along with a meat and prize raffle.Here is Chris’s list..

One other event this weekend, we spring ahead Saturday night at 2am and go to daylight savings time.

I recall seeing an ad for the 20th with the Town of Stephenson VFD having a fundraiser at the Woods with a fried chicken dinner, free beer and a band for $10. I heard that it was a very popular event last year.

Beyond that there isn’t much going on. It is a quiet time of year for a few weeks between the snowmobiling and whitewater rafting seasons.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB