2010

Thursday August 19th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

What a week for weather! Temperatures have been mostly in the 70s this week, and very pleasant. Sign me up for about 9 months a year of that.

Last night we had another episode of ‘heat lightning’. The sky was flashing with distant lightning while we had stars shining and no rain. I would say that the show lasted at least 4 hours.

We did finally see one area of rain come in the wee hours and really pound on the roof for a few minutes. I got up and checked the radar, and it was a tiny little blob, but it rained with good enthusiasm.

As it turned out, there was a line of storms to our north that was the source of the sky show. The line went through Forest and Florence Counties in a mostly east to west direction.

Much like last Saturday’s sky show, the ‘heat lightning’ was really an over the horizon storm. It always is. Heat lightning is a bit of a misnomer.

In a storm the cloud tops can go to 30-40,000 feet. The lightning in those tops can project up to about 100 miles. We get no sound or rain, but the sky flashes.  In the case of last Saturday night we were seeing lightning off of a storm near Crandon, last night it was up in Forest & Florence Counties.

It is possible to have a dry thunderstorm, where the rain hits a dry layer in the atmosphere and evaporates before it hits the ground, or convection alone triggers the lightning. Generally we don’t see those conditions, that is more out west or in unusual conditions like updrafts in forest fires.

In our neighborhood ‘heat lightning’ is an over the horizon thunderstorm. If there is enough convection to produce lightning, generally somewhere not to far away is getting wet. Like I said before, lightning can project a flash up to 100 miles away.

I recall a storm a few years back when a line of really strong storms did the train track thing, tracking one after the next about 40 miles north of here. The near constant lightning off of the storm was so bright that I could walk around the yard like it was daytime. They ended up with 9″ of rain in one night, we got nil, but it was a heck of a show.

It looks like we have a great weekend in weather ahead. Once the rain clears out Saturday morning we should see nice weather with temps in the upper 70s and low 80s.

In between now and Saturday morning there could be some active weather. We are expecting showers and thunderstorms tonight, Friday and into Friday night. Only one model shows us in the lowest band for rainfall after 6am Saturday morning, otherwise they all show us dry for the duration of the weekend.

I am not completely sold on the amount and placement of the rainfall. The models are showing a good bit to our north and south, anywhere from 0.75-2.75″, while we are in the 0.5-0.75″ band pretty consistently. I am not sold that it is that cut n dry. Predicting that we will get 0.89″ while a place 50 miles away will get 2.68″ seems a little exact for the very inexact art of predicting thunderstorm placement.

At any rate, it is expected to get wet over the next 36 hours or so, and clear out in time for a nice Saturday and Sunday. That is a good thing, because we have some great events this weekend.

On the top of the list last time was the modified garden tractor pulls at Curve Inn this Saturday. I went to one of those, and it is pretty cool. Sure there are Gilson and John Deere tractors, but the gear heads are well represented too. Some of those  ‘tractors’ can sport a 350 or 400hp v8. It is a good show. I will see if I can find some pictures later.

Other events..

August 21 Stephenson Town Hall
Hwy X Twin Bridge Rescue Squad Annual Rummage/Bake Sale
8 am – 2 pm

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August 21 Village of Pound Park
Parkview Ln & Cty Q CCBA POUND THE PAVEMENT Walk/Run
7:00 am
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August 22 McCauslin Brook Golf Course
Lakewood 3rd Annual Nicolet Clinic Golf Outing
Registration 10am – Shotgun start 11am – Includes Lunch, Dinner & Awards
Raffles & Contests throughout the day

I don’t have a lot to report in the wildlife area, the last couple of days have been kept pretty full with work.

I did spot a pretty nice buck last night a few miles north of the ranch. He had decent size and nice headgear. He decided to run out in front of the truck at full ramming speed at the last second. Thanks to his speed and my reaction time, the only evidence of our encounter are some skid marks, and that buck still walks.

It was really really close. If it was a gravel road I’d be eating backstraps for lunch and wishing that I had finished welding up my brush guard. As it stands there is a pretty nice buck roaming the neighborhood.

Well  the TV is showing me temps outside in the 68-74 degree range at surrounding stations, so I am off to go outside and tackle some projects. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday August 17th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

What a change in the weather!

Saturday worked out ok for weather. It was a little warm and humid, but it was not a wet one. Later Saturay night we did have a line of storms come through that put on a pretty good sky show, but we were between cells and it did not rain here. There was yellow and orange on the radar so it rained pretty good in surrounding areas.

I recalled seeing the distant lightning flashes Saturday night, but there was no rain. A friend e-mailed to ask about it, and I looked at archived radar loops and sure enough there was a fast moving storm Saturday night. The flashes that they & I were seeing at about 10:30pm were actually lightning from the storm while it was near Crandon. With a strong storm you get high cloud tops and the lightning projects a long way.

The storm did wonders for the weather. It was like opening the door to another season when I walked out of the door Sunday morning. It was nice out but not hot or humid. It was almost cold, something very welcome after our recent spell of heat & humidity.

The week ahead looks a lot cooler than last week. It is still summer, so we will see temps get into the 80s, but not the 90s. There is a chance of rain about Wednesday and again late week. Both storms show 0.5″ or better QPFs. The late week storm bears watching in that the models have it clearing out of our area early Saturday morning. There is a slight chance of rain lingering into Saturday, otherwise the weekend looked ok from here. We will want to keep an eye on the timing of the late week storm.

Events this weekend..

August 21 Curve Inn Resort
N9464 Parkway Rd Modified Garden Tractor Pull
2-5pm
August 21 Stephenson Town Hall
Hwy X Twin Bridge Rescue Squad Annual Rummage/Bake Sale
8 am – 2 pm
August 21 Village of Pound Park
Parkview Ln & Cty Q CCBA POUND THE PAVEMENT Walk/Run
7:00 am
August 22 McCauslin Brook Golf Course
Lakewood 3rd Annual Nicolet Clinic Golf Outing
Registration 10am – Shotgun start 11am – Includes Lunch, Dinner & Awards
Raffles & Contests throughout the day

Well the weather outside is too nice to pass up. Right now Waubeno and Shawano are showing temps under 70, and Athelstane Weather just crossed to 70. After last week I appreciate a cool work day and I am going outside to tackle some projects.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Saturday August 13th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

Saturday morning 5am

The weather outlook has improved significantly. The storm last night faded after sunset and brought tenths of an inch of rain rather than inches. Right now the radar looks clear all of the way back to South Dakota.

The forecast models have backed off on precip chances over the weekend. The HPC and NAM now show us dry for the next 60 hours. The GFS leaves us in the 0.01-0.1″ band.

The atmosphere is still humid, and we are expecting a warm day. I’d be inclined to leave a chance of a typical summer shower or storm brewing up Saturday afternoon and night.

There is no organized system, but the ingredients are there with the heat and humidity. Watch the clouds. If they start building big high tops, pay attention.

Sunday looks very nice, with lower temps and humidity.

I wouldn’t sit out the weekend for the weather forecast. There are a lot of great events, and I expect that they will have a good day for it.

RJB

Friday Morning

I had a few additions to post and I didn’t want to push Wednesday’s event calendar into the abyss, so I am updating Thursday’s post.

Item one- Crivitz.. Apparently the new stoplight in Crivitz is temporary. It is to help people take the detour while they do construction on Hwy A where it goes through town. They zig-zag you through town and get you where you need to go.

Personally unless I have business on the west side of Crivitz, I keep going north to Hwy X or Moonshine Hill Rd, and then go west to A missing the whole construction mess.

Item two..  I saw a poster in a bar about adult full contact downhill big wheel races this weekend somewhere called Blueberry Hill. I can only imagine how that one got started.. but it certainly sounds entertaining.

Item three-weather..

The rain came early today, and started up about 9am. It is a little ahead of schedule, but unfortunately not the only wave. There are still a variety of opinions on how the weekend will go.

The NAM is showing a lot of rain tonight a little northwest of here, several inches. We are in the periphery of the heavy stuff on that model, and if it plays out it will be a wet night. They have backed off a little on the Saturday night rain, showing us in the 0.01-0.1″ band instead of inches of rain.

The GFS leaves us in the lowest band for rain through Saturday after showing a wet night tonight. Tonight’s QPF from the GFS is less than an inch.

The HPC is showing 1-1.25″ tonight and then we are in the 0.01-0.1″ band for Saturday.

The NWS keeps a chance of rain in the forecast throuugh Saturday night. Their chances are at 70% today, 90% tonight, 50% Saturday, and 30% Saturday night.

My opinion? Rain tonight, clearing out late morning. With that rain is a cold front, and it should stabilize the atmosphere for Saturday. I would leave a chance of rain redeveloping Saturday late day or Saturday night in the forecast, and a nice Sunday.

It would be nice if the system cleared out ahead of schedule. Behind it we get to trade hot and tropical weather for low humidity and temps in the 70s and 80s.

Have a good weekend and thanks for visiting!

RJB

Thursday

Update time already? It seems like I just did that yesterday..

The first order of business is the weather. It is hot and humid today with the heat index in the upper 90s. I can tell you first hand that it is a warm one. The dew points are in the 70s, representing tropical humidity.

We have more of that on tap for the next few days. Friday we are looking at another warm and humid day with temps in the upper 80s or into the 90s. There is a chance of a thunderstorm later in the day.

The chances for T-storms or showers goes up for Friday night into Saturday morning. With a lot of humidity there is plenty of water available to fall as rain. The QPF for Friday night’s storm looks to be in the 1-1.75″ range, but exactly where that will fall remains a question.

The majority of the forecasts and models move the showers clearing out Saturday morning and leaving the weekend clear. Saturday is still expected to be a little humid and in the 80s, Sunday looks a little cooler.

The outlier in the forecasts is the usually somewhat reserved NAM model. The NAM is bringing another set of showers and storms across the state Saturday night, and again, totals possible over an inch. The concensus isn’t going that way, but it is a possibility.

We have a lot of area events coming up this weekend. The top of the list starts with the Silver Cliff Parade & Picnic. The parade starts at 10am at Boat Landing 11 Road & Hwy C and goes east on C to the picnic grounds. The picnic runs from 11-6.

Next up is the tug of war across the Peshtigo River between Dockside Bar and the Peshtigo River Resort. That was a fun one last year, and yes some people got wet.

A little farther down the road is the Jumpin Jimmy’s Car Show at the Curve Inn and Resort. Last year attendance was down a little and they still had almost 100 really nice cars. They also raffle off a lot of Craftsman tools and a new washer & dryer set. Add in a burnout pit, food, and music, and it is a pretty big show.

A little west of there in Crooked Lake they are having their 2nd annual Family Fun Fest at the Crooked Lake Sportsman’s Grounds. They have free corn, plus brats, booyah, beer, kids games, and live music.

There are more events, check yesterday’s report for the full list.

Whitewater rafting should be good this weekend. We are still riding the wave from last weekend’s heavy rain. The Peshtigo is normally about 178cfs today, and is currently running 338cfs. Yee-Ha. Likewise the Menominee River is usually at about 1,220CFS, ant it is peaking between 1,210 and 2,100cfs. Again, great water for August.

The higher water also made tubing more fun, and the waterfalls should be better than usual too.

I don’t know what to tell you about the gators. One day I was getting chewed up, the last two days I have not even used Repel. I guess like anything else around here, be ready for anything.

In the maybe maybe not department.. the Perseid Meteor shower peaks tonight. The best viewing should be after about 10pm when the moon sets and darkens the skies. The maybe maybe not part comes with the could cover and haze. There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, so we could get clouds or fog, or maybe a good show. Those same clouds and moisture might make a nice sunset tonight too.

Well, I am off to go and fill up another day.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday August 11th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

My apologies for being a day late. It has been a busy week and weekend, and here we go again.

The weekend rain was a real soaker. No one that I was aware of was predicting 1-4″ of rain Saturday night. It made some really huge puddles and made the rivers run big.

In the case of the Peshtigo it was running about -4 last Saturday. For this time of year that isn’t bad. It rained Saturday night and it raised it to +2 for Sunday and +6 for Monday and Tuesday. That is a record high for those days.

That put me back to work on the river, and it has been a fun week so far. A lot of people that paddle got the heads up and took off to come and play. The rivers have not been disappointing anyone, people are having a  ball. Tubing and rafting are a great way to address a humid day in the high 80s.

We have a little rain in the area this morning, but the majority of it has gone south. It was not the heavy rain that was predicted earlier in the week.

We have a hot and humid week ahead that will feel a lot like August. While it isn’t in the forecast beyond tonight, don’t rule out a chance of a shower or storm popping up.

Friday night into Saturday there is another chance of rain. Right now the models are fairly consistent with a QPF of 0.1-0.25″, and the rain clearing out by about noon Saturday. Hopefully that works out, we have a lot of events for Saturday..

Hats off to Chris for doing a great job on our events calendar!

As far as rafting & tubing for the weekend, go for it. The rivers should still be above normal. The Peshtigo River is starting to drop off, but it is still 10 or 11 inches above normal and in record territory. Even if it drops an inch or an inch and a half a day, it will still be above normal for the weekend. The Menominee has been consistently great and should continue to be.

For those that stay out of the water, check out some waterfalls. Those are running much bigger than normal for mid-August too.

That is truly amazing considering that we started the summer in a D-3 or a D-4 drought.

Well, all of this water and rafting and stuff has me a busy boy. I am about to go and dive into another full day and try to squeeze every minute I can out of it. Summer ends far too soon.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

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