2010

Thursday July 29th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The rain storm a few nights ago was a good one. We didn’t have any damage around here, but we did see an inch to an inch and a half of rain.

To the north and east of the Peshtigo River watershed they got pounded. Rainfall estimates that I have seen were in the 2-5″ range for far northern Forest County and Florence County and nearby places to the north and east of there in the U.P.

Both rivers should be on the rise for the weekend. The Menominee is the highly recommended pick for whitewater rafting this weekend. It was running at 3,000cfs the last time that the gauge updated, which was yesterday afternoon. I suspect that it will be there or more likely higher for the weekend. That river is so cool when it gets big, burying 12 man rafts in huge waves and holes, and really getting the adrenaline rat fed.

The weather this weekend looks mediocre. I checked 4 different sources and came away with 4 different ideas on what will happen. My best guess is that it will work out ok. There will be a chance of rain Friday afternoon and again Friday night and Saturday morning. That rain should not be too heavy according to the forecast models, which put he QPF at 0.01-0.1″ per six hour frame. The NWS, NAM, and HPC have the rain leaving by noon, the GFS keeps the chance of <0.1″ in the forecast right through Sunday.

The heaviest part of the storm is expected to be in the UP and near Lake Superior, with light and scattered stuff coming to our area. That could also change, having a storm work out 200 miles one way or the other of the prediction isn’t that big of a variance on the grand scale.  None of the forecasts have it straying south at the moment.

The bottom line is that if the forecast stays on track we could have light and scattered rain Friday afternoon, Friday night, and Saturday morning. Other than that it looks pretty comfortable with temps in the upper 70s or low 80s.

We have some great events in the area this weekend. The big ones on my list are the car show at Eagle Creek Pub and the grand opening party at Fisher’s Camp Resort. There s also a ride for the Crivitz Rescue Squad, the Wagner VFD picnic, and a 100th anniversary party for the High Falls dam by where the snowmobile radar runs and the water ski shows are held by Boat Landing #3 on High Falls Flowage.

Yesterday brought some enlightenment as to why my berry bushes are under performing. I went out to check what was a bumper crop of black raspberries, only to find every ripe berry stripped from the branches. As we were out there guessing at what at all of those berries, a chippy showed us. Apparently he ran up the cane, bent it down, and stripped the berries.

That explains a lot. About 3 weeks ago the yard was just infested with chippies. They are fine until they start getting into the house and stuff like that. About the time that I was ready to do something about it, they were suddenly scarce. Now I know why. They are all down in my berry patch.

Other than that there isn’t much to report.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday July 27th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The weekend weather worked out ok for the most part. Saturday morning brought rain, but it cleared up about 1pm. Late afternoon we had about a 10 or 15 minute downpour, and then the skies parted.

The afternoon downpour was a dandy. I was out chopping wood for the grill when it came. I was hot anyway, and being the stubborn one, I kept chopping wood. The rain just kept coming with increasing intensity until it was really hammering. Finally I was driven into the woodshed, and by that time it was funny. The previously seasoned oak that I split up took a lot of camper’s helper to get started in the grills.

Sunday and Monday were nice days but on the hot side. You will have that in late July, that is what beaches and rivers are for.

Today is another warm one, and there is a little extra humidity too. There will be a lot of extra humidity when the storm that is hitting Rhinelander now hits us.

The rain for today and tonight looks like it will be heavy somewhere. A variety of sources brought a variety of opinions on where. They all agree that it will rain, but they vary in how much could fall here. The HPC has it staying north, and us getting 0.75-1.25″. The GFS had similar numbers with1.0-1.5″, and the normally conservative NAM had us getting hit good and weighed in with a possible 1.5-3″. These are QPF numbers for the next 60 hours.

Looking at the US radar animation, the NAM might be onto something.

We are in a fairly typical summer pattern where a dome of hot humid air tries to push north into the region. As it encounters the cooler air to the north, the line between the two sets up quite a battleground for the formation of storms.

Often the storms follow distinct paths illustrating the line between the two air masses. Sometimes waves of the storm come one after another like train cars on a rail right down that line. That is where we get stuff like the horrible flooding in Milwaukee, recent flooding in the Fox Valley, the flooding in the Dells a few summers ago,  and the 9″ of rain in one night in the Peshtigo River watershed a few summers ago.

Right now the radar looks like it is going to train on the Pesh watershed. I say bring it. Yes we have had almost 14″ of rain since June 1, but we only had something like 2.54″ between Jan1 and June 1, and 6 years of drought before that. It is coming around nicely, but 6 years of drought is a big deficit to recover from.

I recall a discussion over the weekend about the gators (mosquitoes). I hardly ever used Repel in May and most of June was pretty good. The last few weekends have found them back to normal. The good news is that I haven’t seen a tick in 6 weeks.

I have been seeing a lot of deer moving around the past few days. I am not sure what draws ’em up to the road, but there have been a lot. Maybe it is the full moon.

Also in the critter department I spotted a couple of different birds along the Peshtigo this weekend. There was an osprey that I have seen and taken pictures of before, but this time he kept some canopy between him and I. I tried, but he was faster.

This guy was a big bird. I saw him coming and got off a couple of frames as he came by. This is the best one.

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We have some pretty fun events this weekend..

The weekend weather looks pretty good 4 days out. The NWS has us for a nice weekend with comfortable temps in the upper 70s or low 80s. A couple of the forecast models introduced some scattered rain, but it was all random spots in the 0.01-0.1″ per 6 hour range. I will keep an eye on it, but right now the weekend weather looks nice.

That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday July 23rd, 2010 Late Update

Greetings and welcome!

5PM Update

The latest runs of the forecast models are pretty unanimous that the rain will be to the south of us. The TV and the HPC are showing a little rain in the morning and only scattered showers in the afternoon. The NAM and GFS don’t even think much of that idea, skipping the morning rain completely and leaving the chance of a scattered shower in the afternoon.

Here is the important part.. None of them showed a QPF of over a quarter inch. Most (3/4) plots showed us in the 0.01-0.1″ band.

It isn’t carved in stone, but it sounds good to me.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Am Update

Here we are at the Friday of Hog Wrestling weekend at the Caldron Falls Bar. I drove past there yesterday and they were well along in the set up of the tents and stuff. It is a big deal, not just for the Caldron Falls Bar, but for every one around here.

There is also usually a big law enforcement push in this area over the weekend. Have a great time, but use designated drivers, use a shuttle, or stay put when happy hour starts. Whatever, just don’t play the OWI game.

We had a little more rain Thursday. It started about 11am and was pretty steady. I recalled not having to change the intermittent wipers all of the way to town and back, thinking now THAT is a steady rain. I am not sure what is in the bucket, but I emptied it Wednesday, so it should be an accurate total for the storm. I will guess at an inch r so, but the bucket will tell in a couple of hours when the sun comes up.

The TV said that some areas by Milwaukee saw as much as 8″ of rain out of that storm. Wow. It pushed them, Green Bay and probably some of the Fox Valley stations into all time record rainfall for July.

The rain is expected to stop for a while today before redeveloping for Friday night and Saturday morning. The forecast now is for rain/T-storms up to about noon and then only scattered stuff as the storm whisks off to the east.

That is going to be hard to call. If the storm follows the path of the last two with the heavy stuff downstate and us only in the northern reaches of the rain,  it will work out. If the heavy stuff pushes a little farther north we could see more and longer rain. Both scenarios exist in the models.

I am leaning toward it following the last couple of storms, and the heaviest stuff going south of us. The battleground seems to have moved 100 miles south, and chances are that is where the next storm will hit the most.

My guess is that it will rain until about noon Saturday, maybe a little later, and then give way to a nice weekend. Sunday is supposed to be sunny & 80.

Along that same line the rain Tuesday and Thursday did not impact the Peshtigo River watershed as much as it hit here or downstate. No big deal, it is still running above normal and should be for the weekend. The Menominee has consistently peaked over 2,000cfs this week, again great water for this time of year. Whitewater rafting remains good and the rivers should go up with Thursday and Friday night’s rain.

I almost forgot to mention that this weekend is the Town of Doty VFD picnic. See Tuesday’s report for details on that and hog wrestling. Be aware that here is also a big grand opening party coming up next weekend at Fisher’s camp.

Well I am going to run along. I will return with any thing that I missed. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday July 20th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

I have been having trouble making my deadline lately, so today I am starting the day with my update before anything else. I try to post Tuesday and Thursday at 1pm. Lately I have been as much as a day and a half late, and that is not acceptable.

This coming weekend is arguably the biggest event weekend of the summer around here. It is Hog Wrestling weekend at the Caldron Falls Bar. Hog wrestling weekend is always big. This is nothing but a wild guess, but I’d guess at about 5,000-8,000 people that come to see the spectacle annually.

The premise is simple. Start with a pig in a ring full of mud, and add people that try to catch it and set it on a barrel in less time than the other teams. The hogs are clearly at the advantage with the mud and all, and it ends up pretty wild.

The event is huge, with live music, vendors, food & drink, and tons and tons of people. It is a really wild time and really fun, but is not family rated.

Along with the masses of people this weekend there is always a very significant law enforcement presence to keep the order. It is not just arond high Falls Flowage, but the whole area.

As always I am going to urge you to use designated drivers, shuttle buses, or to stay put once you start with the happy hour. If you are driving within 30 miles of the place and have even a minor infraction you will probably get pulled over. Use some common sense while having a good time and it isn’t a problem. It is always a very fun weekend with all of the people around, but don’t go getting an OWI about it.

Beyond the Hog Wrestling we have the Doty Firefighter’s Picnic Saturday 7-24 Doty Town Hall ( T & Star Lake Rd 1 mile north of 64). If my memory serves me it is just north of 64 and just west of 32.

The hot topic recently has been the rain. We are a good bit above normal for the last 6 weeks. In July alone Rhinelander saw a little over 4″ (4.11″), about double normal. Crivitz came in a little higher at 4.84″.

Green Bay since June 1 has tallied 12.76″, 7.34″ above normal. I am going to guess that we are a little ahead of that, I recall June bringing us over 9″ of rain according to the NWS. The TV just showed Rhinelander with 15.5″ of precip since January 1, and Green Bay with, get this, 21+ inches.

We needed it, it was a D-3 heading into D-4 drought, and it was a 6 year spell. Swamps that never got dry were sedge meadows. I have willows growing where the pond used to be 3-4′ deep. Personally I don’t think that we are all of the way back yet, though 12 or 14″ of rain in 6 weeks is a fine start.

Looking ahead, I am seeing flashbacks of the Silver Cliff Split.. That is where it rains everywhere but here and Forest County. Yesterday’s rain pounded north, south, east and formed right over us, sparing us and Forest Co the heavy rains that other nearby areas saw. We did get some, just not the inch or two that came with some of the bigger cells.

Looking at the NAM and GFS there will be rain in the area this week, but a lot of it somewhere else. As the various waves come, they have it shown north or south, around us, but not here. I am not sure if the models learned from the last 6 years and it’s a habit, if the Silver Cliff Split is back, maybe I’m just paranoid about it returning, or  (D) All of the above…

Anyway there is rain possible almost daily this week, except Wednesday night, which might be partly cloudy. The weekend looks great with partly cloudy skies and highs around 80 and maybe just a touch above.

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Something that has come up lately is the area code thing. They are running out of 715 phone numbers so they are doing an area code overlay. Now when you dial for example, Rapids Resort, you need to dial 715-757-3358, and with a 1 first only if you are out of the area code.

Here is the interesting part… Those unfortunate enough to still be on dial-up will need to change their access number so that it dials the 715 number first. We have had a few calls about that from our computer service customers.

I received my wide angle 18-55mm camera lens this week, and usually there is a tradition of breaking them in on a sunset or wildlife tour. We might have a slow loading page in a few days with some new pictures.

–OT__

E-cigs.. I have been pretty excited about my e-cigs the past few weeks. The number one reason? They have my smoking in half and declining fast. This isn’t about going through the hell of quitting for the 100th time, it is about looking up and going wow, I haven’t had a cig in 4 hours. That doesn’t happen! Yes, now it does.

The cigarettes are killin me slow, and to get off of ’em I’d give a toe up. This is the only thing that works so far. It is better, cheaper, and healthier, so I’m pretty excited about ’em. I even bought a treadmill and use it regularly.

Go read the comments on the petition here or here. If that is not compelling, check the obits for your name.

So I got this wild hair that since I spent a lot of time and money researching what works the best,  and that they save lives, I am going to make these e-cigs and the juice for them available up here. I am still sorting through just how that is going to happen.

In the meantime be aware that I can get them. As far as juice,  I have 9  flavors in stock and when my flavorings come later this week, there will be something like another 15 in development.  At some point I plan on a tasting where people can check them out.  I switch between two, and today’s flavors are apple pie with a touch of caramel, and orange cream. It sure beats Winston.

This is way way off topic, and I have a lot to share,  so I am going to set up a different page for it. Look for it where the Ubuntu Linux page was.

Well, I had better scamper on. I skipped cutting grass last week and now it is halfway to my knees. The raspberries are starting to come in, and I’d like to see what is up with those too. If I work real hard today I can do that and a sunset too. First the work, or it will never get done.

Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB