April 2011

Tuesday April 19th, 2011

10pm

Greetings and welcome!

The storm did not hit here like it did 50 or 100 miles south. As of 10pm I have about 1-2″ down and it is pretty much over for now.

A lot of the snow fell on radar but not on the ground, and quite a bit melted on contact. It finally started snowing a little before sunset, and at last light I had an inch or so down.

Farther south they got nailed. Green Bay saw 8.7″, the most in a 24 hour period this late in the year. Apparently there are some big power lines down on I-43 on the west side by Atkinson Dr that has shut down the highway until morning.

From Green Bay south and west saw about 6-8″. There was a lot of lightning with this storm, so some had thundersnow.

The storm supporting this is a doozy. There are watches or warnings from Dallas, TX to Columbus, OH and on up to Sault St Marie. The radar shows a lot of red and orange, and some ugly hook echos too. Usually they mean supercells and tornadoes.

Anyway, the storm didn’t add up to much around here. Farther south they got spanked.

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!

RJB

2pm

Greetings and welcome!

So far the storm has been staying to our south. It looks like the area between Green Bay and Sheboygan are winning the contest at the moment. I have not seen precip here yet, but it feels like it is ready.

I still expect to see part of the storm make it this far north, but the higher end of the 5-8 or 6-12 predictions are not quite as likely. I am looking more for 2-4 or 3-6, but you never know.

I did my Lakewood-Townsend run this morning. Waubee Lake was still frozen except right by the Beach Club and one spot right across the lake. The Chain bay right north of Lakewood was tight and so was Townsend Flowage where you could see it from the road. There was some melting in spots and along edges, but it is not quite ready to float a boat.

Townsend Shell has good no-ethanol premium 93 gas, and it was $4.19, regular was $3.84. Thank Wall St speculators. We have a surplus of gas & oil, but thanks to speculation the market price has decoupled from the market conditions. ABC News last night had it pegged for a 30 cent a gallon cost, I’d put it closer to $1.50. We are not short on oil, it is more of a glut. I read yesterday that OPEC actually cut production slightly because there is plenty available. Grrr.

I forgot to do the wildlife update, so let’s do it now. The deer are out playing by the roadsides. With their coloring against the dead brown foliage they are really tough to spot until they move. Do beware.

Sunday I was down by the Tommy Thompson Park with some friends when we ran into a Tom turkey and his harem, and he was more than happy to display and strut for us. It was cool to see.

The frogs in the pond have been pretty quiet the past few days, even as the water in the pond rose. I haven’t seen the barred owl since a few days after I posted the picture. That time I got an idea where he roosts and where his nest is.

Last night the cat was yowling to go outside while I was making dinner. That stopped abruptly when the coyotes started making a big ruckus down by the pond. It was pretty loud even inside. I am not sure if they found a meal, love was in the air, or if they were calling here kitty kitty, but they were enthusiastic about it. The cat was considerably less so.

That is about it for now. I am off to deal with firewood before the snow starts. According to the radar I had better get on it.

RJB

 

 

 

 

 

7am

Greetings and welcome!

We are under a winter storm warning this morning. Right now it looks like the storm is going to hit the hardest between here and Green Bay, but we will likely still get a taste.

Checking the various regular sources and the RUC too, it looks like the models have the low going about 80 miles south of where yesterday’s scenario had it.

The NWS warning has us for a possible 5-8, and the TV weather channel is on board with that. In my opinion that might be a little strong, but we will see.

We are looking at between 0.5-1.0″ of rainfall equivalent, normally 6-12″ of snow. Between the heavier density snow, some possibly being a mix, and the first layers melting on the ground, it might add up to something more like 3-6 or 4-8.

I will also hold out the possibility that this might be a colder storm than expected. It is only in the mid-20ss right now, and there is more snow than expected on radar where the storm is hitting southern WI right now. Being on the northern part of it we might dodge the wet heavy snow thing.

As predicted, between the rain mix and heavier snow there is a chance that it will stick to tree branches and power lines and the gusty wind could take some down.

It looks like my day will be headlined by storm prep. There is firewood to work on, cover, and bring in. I will grab an extra couple of gallons of gas for the generator (or snowmobile?) and a few supplies in town. I’d already be at it, but it is only about 25 outside, so I am going to stall for an hour.

Someone asked about the ice going out on the flowages last week. They were pretty tight last week. They have come a long way since then. The landing by X & Parkway is still about half iced up. There was open water outside of the bay and by the bridge, but some ice yet. Caldron was clear of ice by Landing 11, but there was still ice downstream on the lake. I would expect that the wind from the storm will help break some of that up.

As of right now you could get onto the river end of Caldron. I would guess that you might be able to get into High Falls by 6 & 7, but might not get far. By X & Parkway was still too iced in.

I will get a look at Waubee Lake and Townsend Flowage later this morning according to the plan.

The snow is expected to start around here between about noon and 3pm and continue overnight. The Channel 11 Weather  just showed us in the 6-9 band with the 9-11 band starting a few miles south of here.

RJB

 

 

 

Monday 4-18-2011

Greetings and welcome!

It was a wild weekend around Kosir’s. The weather wasn’t very nice at times and it added to the adventure. The river was running big though and a lot of people got great a run through the rapids.

For what it was, Saturday wasn’t too bad of a day. It was around 40 and overcast with some snow. There wasn’t too much wind, and that helped a lot. The snow kept coming, and Sunday found us with a inch or two by afternoon.

Sunday morning the wind kicked up and the snow was blowing around. At times it was intense, other times the clouds would part, the wind would calm, and it was petty nice out. Then the next big blue cloud would blow in and bring more gusting winds and snow. With temps in the upper 30s and a sharp wind, it wasn’t nice out for a lot of the day.

There were a lot of people rafting this weekend in spite of the less than ideal weather. We had the DPoD group, a large group that has been coming rafting in April for many years, a scout group, and others too.

The weather wasn’t nice but the river was, and people stuck it out and ran the rapids. They were rewarded with the Peshtigo running between 16-18″. There were quite a few flips and swims, and some epic burials and wipeouts.

I brought home a lot of nice pictures and had a lot of fun with the slow motion replays in the videos. I will look into getting some video posted later in the week. In the meantime here is a photo gallery that I posted yesterday.

Michelle from Firelane was funny when she posted this on her Facebook page..

INSTALLING SPRING…

???????????????????????????????? 44% DONE.
Install delayed….please wait.
Installation failed. Please try again. 404 error: Season not found. Season “Spring” cannot be located. The season you are looking for might have been removed, had its name changed, or is temporarily unavailable. Please try again……!!!

You don’t know how true that is..

We are under a Winter storm watch at the moment. It looks like another southern storm is heading our way for Tuesday night and Wednesday. It could be a nasty one for us.

There are a variety of scenarios being offered by the models and forecasts. The North American Model is showing us seeing 1-1.5″ of rainfall equivalent, and yes most would be snow. The GFS and HPC are pushing the storm south and showing it a little less intense, dropping the QPF to the .5-1″ range.

The TV weather channel is showing us in the area between 6.5-9″ of wet heavy snow and is running warnings about power outages and broken tree limbs.

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch and is expecting about 6-10″ of wet heavy snow. They are uncertain of the storm path at the moment, but the best scenario has it hitting north and west of Green Bay.

The TV weather channel just updated their forecast at 5 pm. Now they have us in the 4-7 band and areas between here and Lake Winnebago in the 6-10 band. It looks like they have the storm going south more and bringing us a little less snow.

Not to worry, there are several more big storms on the 16 day outlook, include one possible for late week.

That is about it for today. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Saturday April 16th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

That was an interesting way to start a storm. Last night just after dark the precip started. It was a mix of sleet and rain that added up to an icy layer on anything that was cold enough to hold it. Thankfully that didn’t include most roads, but the porch was 1/2″ thick with ice by the door where the wind blew it in.

The biggest first wave of the storm has passed, now we still have the precip right around the low pressure area to look forward to. Chances are that it will mostly be a mix or snow. I’m guessing that we will be out of it by mid afternoon.

I told Chris yesterday afternoon that the day in advance of the storm felt more like a snow storm than a rain storm. It was the warm sector of the storm, and still had a big chill to it. For a while I thought that my earlier prediction of 3-6 would come in.

There is still some storm ahead, and based on last night I’m not sure what to expect.

Last night brought weather advisories came on TV. There was a high wind advisory for southern Marinette Co, which starts a mile south of here. There were winter weather advisories for snow for Forest Co, which starts on the other side of McCaslin Mountain Campground 4-5 miles west of here. I was thinking that it’s a good thing that I moved where I did or the weather would be pretty nasty.

It looks like the river fell a few inches, and the rain being frozen on the ground didn’t help much. Folks are still in for a wild ride with the Peshtigo at about +21.

It looks like a very interesting day ahead, so I am off to dive into it. The first raft trip goes out at 9am, and I’ll be there with the cameras. Will it rain? Will it snow? Sleet? Nothing? Driving rain? Only time will tell.

Have a good Saturday and thank you for visiting!
RJB

 

Friday April 15th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

The weather outlook is a little better than yesterday’s. Right now my best guess is that the heavier rain will come overnight and mostly by early afternoon. After that there is still a chance of rain and the NWS has it changing to snow before it diminishes. They are looking at an inch of snow in the afternoon. It will still be windy and cold, so be ready for it.

Someone asked about ice on the flowages. The landing by X and Parkway still had ice except along the very edges yesterday. When I saw Waubee, Townsend Flowage, and lakes by Athelstane this week they all still had ice and were only melted by the very edge. They dropped levels on Caldron this year but High Falls looked normal.

The whitewater rafting at Kosir’s will be big this weekend. The river is off of it’s high of +25 by an inch or two, but if we get an inch of rain tonight it will be in fast rise mode and quickly bounce back and beyond. Weather and water wise Sunday looks like the better of the two days, but either day will bring a heck of a ride on the river.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB