May 2011

Tuesday May 17th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

It is a beautiful May day outside. There is a nice blue sky, not too much wind, and it is up to 70 degrees.

On my trip to town this morning there was evidence to the spring springing all over the place. The cherries are getting their blossoms, the aspen leaves are out, the marsh marigolds are in bloom in a plentiful way, and there were even people out cutting grass for the first time. Everywhere you look there is a new sprout, bud, or flower. Cool stuff.

On the downside of it, Sunday brought the first gnats, and I got the first wood tick that the cat hadn’t worn in and brought to me. Neither are very bad and they are still localized.

They probably didn’t like it much when it went down to 28 degrees last night. What the heck.. last night I was burning oak in the wood stove to stay warm, to day it is 70 and sunny. Blame it on La Nina and clear skies.

The weekend was about as expected. Saturday was a drizzly day. It added up about as expected, but it stayed drizzly longer that I thought it would. The wind added to the chill, and so did the cold nights.

People that rafting by Kosir’s had a blast. The river was running at about 16, and there were some classic smashes, wipeouts, and swims. It was a fun place to be around with everyone in such a good mood after a great day on the river.

Anyone up for some more good news? I have been watching the NYMEX like I always do when the speculators run up the gas and oil markets. What goes up must come down, and now it is time. At the peak of the run-up, gas on the NYMEX hit $3.43 on May 1st. Today the same NYMEX RBOB* gas is selling a 2.93, a full 50 cents lower. Most of that came in the last 6 trading sessions.(*click on the Charts link next to the month)

That happened mostly because a report released last week showed big weakness in demand and a glut of on-shore oil and gas. That prompted a lot of selling and profit taking.

So far gas has come down 17 cents locally, but there is continued downward pressure on prices. Crivitz is under $4 now, and here in Silver Cliff it is $3.99.

Based on the Nymex price plus a 75 cent spread for taxes, distribution and retailing, gas should eventually hit $3.70. As you go farther out in months prices fall farther. Maybe we won’t have $5 or $6 gas ruining everyone’s Memorial Day weekend after all.

I haven’t been to Crivitz in quite a while, mostly because of high gas prices. A lot has changed. The little place across from Mc D’s is now a nice little hot dog and ice cream place called Phat Daddy’s. They have the Vienna Beef dogs and Italian Beef, ice cream, and all sorts of stuff. It is fixed up very nice, and they even have a deck outside with picnic tables for visitors.  It is a sharp little place and I hope that they do well.

The old Crivitz Bakery is now a tavern called Cold Stone Pub ( or something like that). I don’t have a lot of details because I only caught it out of the corner of my eye as I was heading north from the stoplight.

If you are not fishing today you probably should be. The high pressure over us isn’t favorable, but other things are. Last week when I went to Wausaukee the 40 mile round trip brought 4 swerves to miss snapping turtles crossing the road to lay eggs.  That is one of my secret signals that the bass and panfishing should be prime. It is all about the water temperature.

Today is also a full moon. That brings the peak prime time for the solunar cycle, and I am a believer. The one that convinced me was a morning that I went out expecting a major peak at about 9:30am. From 7-9:30 I didn’t catch boo. Same bait, same spot, same everything, yielded 4 or 5 nice bass in the next hour, including a couple of huge ones that got marks carved in the floor of the Jon boat where the record fish get marked. It was like someone flipped a switch. It hasn’t always been that cut and dried since, but I do try to fish the majors and peak times.

Now I am looking at this mountain of work in front of me, both inside and out, looking at what I just wrote, and let the angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other shoulder giving advice bit off of cartoons begin… (Devil- Whaddya a chump? Go fishin’! The fish are snappin’ and it’s 70 degrees  out..) (Angel- I have to work)

It looks like  decent week in weather ahead, but..

Tomorrow should hit 60 and bring a slight chance for a sprinkle. That chance continues until Thursday night. Thursday should get close to 70. Friday the clouds part and low 70s should make it a bluebird day.

Saturday and the weekend we have a storm headed this way. The GFS shows it as a moderate strength storm (1,000mb), but never shows us getting more than a tenth of an inch per 6 hour frame, except Saturday night, when it shows up to 1/4 inch between midnight and 6am.

The NWS forecast has us for a cloudy and upper 60s day for Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday they are looking for showers and storms with a 40 and 50% chance.

Rafting will be great this weekend with warm temperatures and high water. The Peshtigo was at about +17″ when it peaked over the weekend. It is falling, but not very fast. It is down to +14″, and the slope of the graph is pretty gradual, so the water should still be great for the weekend. A guess? Between +8 and +12 for Saturday.

Well I am going to go climb that mountain of work before the devil voice wins and I go fishing. Maybe tomorrow.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday May 12th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

It has been a wet week as expected. Most of the area has seen about 2″ of rain, some local totals will go higher. Yesterday when I was out and about there were some pretty good sized puddles in low spots.

There was also hail snow. Hail snow? Yesterday’s hail added up, and as the continuing rain moved it around, it gathered up in spots and made piles. Driving by it looked like the last patches of snow in ditches, along roads and along buildings. I was thinking, hey wait a minute, those snow piles all went away weeks ago. It was hail gathered up. Most of it was marble or jumbo marble sized, so bunched up it survived for a while.

Hail in itself is a bit of a marvel. When there is enough of a cold updraft in the storm to recirculate and hold up the rain drops turned ice pellets so long that they don’t fall until they are that big across, that is a serious updraft and a strong storm.  Thankfully it was not severe other than the hail.

We are not quite done with the rain yet, but the weekend looks promising. We still have some waves of rain expected later today, tonight, and into Friday. The very latest from the NAM model has the rain clearing out late Friday afternoon and not much for the weekend.

The GFS is still showing us with a chance of rain Friday and Saturday, but we are in the lowest band for accumulation, 0.01-0.1″ per 6 hour time frame. That still isn’t bad.

The HPC and NWS are a little less optimistic. The HPC QPF is still showing us in the 0.5-0.75″ band for 6am Saturday to 6am Sunday. The good news is that the forecast is two model runs old and more recent models have been pushing the rain out sooner. The NWS is holding on their 40% chance of of rain showers Friday night and 50% Saturday.

The bone of contention is a little blob of rain showing up on the backside of the storm as high pressure overtakes the area from the northwest. It is not unreasonable to expect a little scattered stuff out of it, but the back of the storm is always hard to predict. Often times the cooler dry air mixes in and stabilizes the atmosphere, but sometimes it brings one last splash to the storm.

I am going to lean toward the dry side and predict minimal showers for Saturday but leave a chance in the forecast. I’d put it at 30-40% with chances decreasing as the day progresses. If the models continue to trend toward an early finish for the rain, 30-40% might be high.

The best that I can tell the area saw about 2″ of rain or more. My bucket, the USGS gauge by Kosir’s, and Athelstane Weather all measured about 2″. There are areas less than 10 miles from here that saw that much just out of yesterday morning’s storm with the hail, and I have seen another inch and a half since then. Radar returns are showing a 2-4″ range, and that is pretty reasonable. There isn’t much question that the ground will be a little soggy this weekend and there might be a little mud.

The rain will be a huge boost for the Peshtigo River and the whitewater rafting and paddling  that goes on there. The initial rise in the river has taken it from about +7 to over +12, but remember that the long narrow watershed puts a 2-3 day fuse on the river. I’d expect it to level off today a little and then get a boost for Friday and the weekend. My best guess is that it will be at a pushy 16-18 for Saturday’s noon rafting trip. It could even be a little higher.  This is going to be an epic weekend for whitewater on the Peshtigo River.

Last year the Pesh was running a dreadful 202cfs, today it is at 859 and I’d expect to see numbers in the 1,000-1,200+ range for the weekend.

In the early days of my time rafting at Kosir’s I noticed that some trips at a certain level brought a lot pushier river that others. Both trips measured +6″, but one was a lot more exciting. Looking closer, I figured out that a rising river is a lot pushier than a falling river. The waves and holes were bigger even though the water level was the same.

Also figuring into this was how fast the river was coming up. In a case like we have here with a lot of water hitting the river at once, it was rising quickly and had a lot more pressure to it. Again it all got a little bigger. All of that is lining up to make it a great weekend for rafting. Can you tell I’m a little excited about it?

Kosir’s had planned on opening up the rafting trips on the Menominee River this weekend. According to their Facebook page this morning, that is off. The Menom gets too nuts to raft over about 5,000cfs. It hit that mark already this morning. That watershed shared in the bounty, and with almost 2,500 square miles of heavy rain draining off,  it probably will not be runnable for the weekend.

The green explosion is upon us. The land is loosing it’s drab brown and gray and trading it in for a brilliant new green growth. We are running late this year because of the weather, but now it is moving really fast. Every day brings many new plants sprouting, trees budding, and a new bug or two as well. My back field has changed significantly in the last two days. The delayed start and all of this rain should really set it off next week.

Fishermen and women reported mixed results for openeing weekend last weekend. The weather wasn’t really in their favor, and it was the low point in the solunar cycle. This weekend should be a little better. The high pressure behind the storm isn’t usually favorable, but the rain washing food into the rivers and lakes is. Next Tuesday is the full moon, putting the weekend into prime time for the solunar tables.

ATV riders will have NO problem with dust this weekend. You might want to trade in the bandanna for rain gear though. There will be plenty of mud and some huge puddles. Can I get a YEEE HA! ?

Campers will want to bring a tarp for the ground and maybe the rain fly for Friday night. Also be ready for some chilly nights. The NWS is looking for lows around 40 Friday night and in the mid-30s Saturday night. Sunday night and Monday night we are looking at low 30s.

Saturday should bring an overcast day with some wind (NE10-20mph) and highs in the low to mid-50s. Sunday should bring a few less clouds, still some wind, and again mid-50s.

It won’t be a bluebird sunny and 75 weekend, but if you are ready for it, it’s not as bad as it sounds.

That is about it for me, so I am going to bluebird on out of here and jump into what looks like another full day in the Northwoods. I will be back tomorrow if the weather outlook changes significantly, otherwise have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday May 11th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

We had a hearty little thunderstorm come through the area right about dawn. I was up early and saw a flash out of the window. I quickly looked it up on the TV weather channel and the Internet. There was a strong line of red and orange coming right this way out of the northwest.

Watching the radar I saw that the lobe about to hit me suddenly detoured a few miles north. As it passed east it re-expanded and stretched all of the way south to Oconto.

The storm definitely had some power to it. The lightning was a pretty steady show. I also had large marble sized hail..

The wave that went around my house cheated me out of some of the rain. The USGS gauge by Kosir’s and my rain bucket agree pretty well on about 1/2″. I have unofficial reports of 1.5 and 2.5″ from places about 10 miles east of here. The Peshtigo River watershed saw a 0.5-1″ drink from it according to radar returns.

Beyond the hail the storm did not show any damage or severe winds that I know about yet.

RJB

Tuesday May 10th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

We have a cloudy day in the mid-50s unfolding outside today. It is still a little damp out there from last night’s thunderstorms, but I have plans to go out and do some yard work anyway.

The thunderstorms last night were a hearty little line of storms. It wasn’t big in size, but it was slow moving and fairly intense. We had a good light show, the usual fitful downpours, and there must have been some wind too, the ground is covered with the little red maple flowers this morning.

The storm was strong here, showing up on the radar with a band of yellow, orange and a splash of red. As it moved east it slowed down and the red area got bigger. Points east and south of 141 and Wausaukee probably saw a pretty good storm, but there were no reports of damage on the AM news.

The forecast ahead is as easy as it is hard. We can start out with cloudy and a chance of showers and be safe through Saturday. We can add a chance of thunderstorms and be safe until Friday night. We are looking at high temperatures around 70 Wednesday through Friday too.

The challenging part is the timing. It isn’t going to rain all day or every day, but the chance is there to varying degrees daily.

The scenario that we have is a slow moving trough of low pressure in the central US that will be pushing warm moist air up out of the Gulf of Mexico and off of the Atlantic. That heat and moisture will prime the atmosphere, and any disturbances that come along will have fuel to turn into a storm. Timing those disturbances with any degree of certainty is difficult at best.

It has been my observation over the years that frequently about May 10th we see a low pressure area that gets cut off and it sits over us and rains off and on for a week or so.  The slow steady rain fuels the greening of the land and good water for fishermen and the whitewater folks.

We missed out on it last year, but this year it is here, and it looks like it will have decent moisture support. It is hard to say if we will see one inch of rain or six until we see it shaping up. Right now it looks like Wednesday and Thursday will be the focal point for some of the heavier rains, though there is more possible for late week.

The weekend forecast is a guess. Personally I think that it will clear up and leave us with a decent Saturday and a nice Sunday. Some models agree, the GFS is showing a good Saturday and one last wave of storms Sunday. A straight answer for 5 days out in this scenario is a little like nailing Jello to the wall.

Spring has been a little slow to unfold thanks to the colder than normal weather from the LaNina. The grass is greening up and there are new buds emerging on trees and underbrush everywhere. We are still on the ‘before’ picture as far as the green explosion, but there are a lot of signs.

I haven’t had my first mosquito yet, but others have seen them.  I did get a wood tick the other night courtesy of my cat. She brings ’em in and then they head for me when her fur is too thick. Considering the amount of time that I spend outside, I am surprised. I am expecting a few today when I go clean up outside.

Last weekend was great around Kosir’s Whitewater Rafting. We had a lot of fun people and the river was issuing lessons to those that let it. It was at a level that was good for either rafts or the one man funyaks and a lot of people had a lot of fun. We even had a marriage proposal on the river! I have a gallery of pictures on the Kosir’s Facebook page.

This weekend a lot of stuff changes around Kosir’s. First of all the price of a Peshtigo River trip drops from $45 to $25 since it is considered summer rafting. The wetsuit isn’t included and several other things change with the trips.

The rafting on the Menominee River starts this weekend too. They used to not raft it until Memorial Day because often the water was way too high. This year it has finished it’s big Spring peak and is back to levels that can be rafted. It is still higher than normal, and will be a good ride for the people that get in on it this weekend.

With the ground firming up construction has started on Parkway Rd (Hwy I) north of Hwy C. Right now they are clearing the ground next to the road and dealing with moving utilities. Eventually they will probably begin the road work. From what I can tell the first phase of it goes as far as Wolfe Ln.

There were not many 4 wheelers around last weekend considering that it was opening day on the trails. It was also the opening of fishing, Mother’s Day weekend, and very nice weather. Last on that list I’d blame the $4+ gas prices.

Prices last weekend were at $4.17 for regular, but yesterday it was down to $4.04. Don’t expect it to last.

Last week an unemployment report came out that showed terrible numbers, supposedly the worst in 3 years. The price of gas on the NYMEX fell from it’s peak of $3.43 May 1, to a low of $3 May 5th. The speculators have been running it back up and it is up to $3.34. When the price fell 43 cents it went down 17 cents at the pump 3 days later. Watch it go back up the full 34 cents from the past few days at the pump.

BTW, when I talk about the NYMEX price, you will want to add a spread of 65-75 cents to cover transportation, taxes and retailing to get the pump price.

I have a tale of two gas pumps to tell. Until I can save up enough money to get a high MPG beater car, I am stuck with my 4×4 Chevy truck for transportation. That has been a rough ride. It has almost 230,000 miles on it, and it costs me $25 to go to Crivitz and back for groceries.  Usually I get about 10mpg on ethanol gas and 13 on premium with no ethanol, so I burn a lot of premium.

Last week I put in a $20 of the 93 no ethanol and actually got 15.1mpg (71 miles). Over the weekend I put in $30 worth of  87 regular with ethanol and got 79 miles, 10MPG. There were some minor differences in terrain and using overdrive, but not a lot.  The best part was, not only did my truck go 50% farther, the premium hadn’t spiked in price yet and it was $4.24 vs the regular at $4.17.

If you are looking to save a buck on gas, my top pick is Shell 93 no ethanol. It more than pays for the spread in price in my truck. Usually it is <10% more cost and I consistently see 30% better mileage, and last week an astonishing 50%.

Ethanol.. In my can coozie sure, in my truck, not if I can help it.

That is about it for today. I will come back with an update when the weekend weather picture gets a little clearer.  Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB