June 2011

Tuesday June 28th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

It was a heck of a weekend for the folks around Kosir’s. The rivers were running at historically high levels for this time of year and people that came rafting had a great ride. There were a lot less wipeouts than I had expected, but there was still some carnage. The weekend itself was fantastic for weather too. There are quite a few pictures and a video on the Riversport Digital and Kosir’s Rafting Facebook pages.

Yesterday we had a line of storms come and split around us for a while. It didn’t last though, and an hour or so before sunset we had a line of thunderstorms come through. It featured quite a few lightning cracks and a good steady downpour.

About sunset I was driving east in the forest and could see a big black cloud in the rear view mirror. We really dodged a bullet on that one. The atmosphere was really loaded with ready to evaporate mist in the trees and above the ground. Had the sun been up to stir that up we probably would have seen severe weather out of it. As it stood the sun set just in time and evaporative  cooling cooled the surface air down enough to stop the convection.

The whitewater rafting continues to be great. The river dropped from it’s peak of +28 last Friday night at midnight to about +16 today. My best guess for the weekend is for the Peshtigo to be in the +4-6 range and a good chance of it being above 6. It takes some time to drain enough water to make it run that high, and it should not be too rocky this weekend.

The weather this week and weekend looks clear and seasonal according to the NWS outlook. Friday looks like  hot one, getting close to 90. Saturday looks like mid-80s and Sunday looks a little cooler. Monday looks like more of the same for the 4th.

The GFS was showing the weekend rain staying to our south. The QPF map showed a line at about Hwy 64 where north of that we would see 1/4″ or less for the weekend. The same map quickly ramps up precip amounts as you go south, with parts of the state seeing an inch or so of rain. So far the outlook here is a good one with only a minor chance of showers about Sunday, with the 6 hour QPF in the lowest 0.01-0.1″ band.

I would add Repel to the shopping and packing list for the weekend. The bugs have been hit and miss in my travels. In one spot I can stand untouched and a hundred steps away there is a cloud of gnats and mosquitoes. When you miss it is nice, when you hit it is nice to have Repel.

Also in the bug report.. it is the time of year where we start seeing some of the more spectacular moth species. I have seen a Spinx moth as well as a cecropia already. The luna moths should be along shortly.

I also spotted a black pine sawyer last weekend, and he went with a satisfying crunch.  They are like a giant beetle with big long antennae. They can take as much as 5-8 years in the larval stage before emerging as an adult. Since this occurs in pine trees, they are very destructive.

There are a wide variety of wildflowers this week including hawkeye, white daisy, and the yellow ones that look like tall firm stemmed dandelions. Add in a little purple from clover and it is a good show along road sides.

There have been quite a few deer spotted with fawns this week, and some with twins.

According to the solunar tables, Thursday is a new moon. That puts Friday and Saturday as peak fishing days, and Sunday just past the peak days. It is nice when that lines up on a holiday weekend.

This year the 4th of July lands on a Monday. That essentially gives a lot of people a three day weekend. As a result there are a lot of events to gather up for the weekend.

Friday July 1

Goodman Firemans 4th of July Street Dance music by Cest La Vie (a very good band)

Saturday July 2

Twin Bridge Ski Team Fireworks and ski show at Boat Landing #3 on High Falls Flowage

Wausaukee 4th of July Celebration and Firecraker 5K walk Run. The walk/run starts at 8am. Parade at 1pm on 141, followed by events at the fairgrounds and in the alley behind Bank North. Fireworks at dusk. Live music, crafts , kids games, more.

Mountain Fireworks Celebration- Live bands, fireworks at dark, craft sale, kids trout tank and bounce houses, horse shoes and softball tournament, bucket brigade competition and raffles, starts with a breakfast at 7:30am

Sunday July 3

Curve Inn Resort and Campground– Live music with Brothers & More Band from 9pm to 2am Fireworks at 10:30 PM

Marty Cooper Memorial Celebration at Bear Point Yacht Club– Join Marty’s family and friends as we celebrate Marty’s life.

Crivitz softball tournament and fireworks at the high school at dusk

Crooked Lake Sportsman’s Club Annual Picnic at 11am

Boat Parade On the Townsend Flowage 8:30 P.M.

Monday July 4th

Crivitz parade at 11am followed by a flag raising and a flea market, live music and fireman’s challenge.

Townend Family Fun on the 4th at the fire department garage 10-4pm- Music, food, and raffles, Fireworks Extravaganza at dusk, at the ballpark. Floats, bands and prizes. Parade at noon. Kids games 5:00 P.M. at the ball park (ages 12 and under). Food and refreshments served on the grounds. Arts and Crafts Fair sponsored by the Townsend Festival Committee at Townsend Fire Garage 10:00 A.M. to 4:00 P.M. Food and beer tents sponsored by the Townsend Fire Department.

Got all of that?

Next weekend we have some big events too..

The last thing on my outline today is to report on the bluster over the forgotten road. Highway C for about 6 miles east of the Forest County line has been under construction and pretty rough for a while. Now there is a petition at the Silver Cliff BP asking them to step it up. Along the road there apparently is a sign too. As seen on Jeff Deebo’s Facebook page..

Well I think that my damage is done here and it is time to move along. Thank you to the people that came rafting last weekend and stopped by to say hello.

Thank you all for visiting and have a good week!

RJB

Thursday June 23, 2011 Paddler’s Alert!

Greetings and welcome!

This week the hot topic is the rain. My bucket as of 2:14pm has 3 5/8″ in it for this week’s storm total. That bucket was emptied Tuesday morning, and the first few drops of rain fell on me as I set it back up.

That is just a local measurement. Some areas got less, some more. The Wolf River, Menominee River and Peshtigo River watersheds all got slammed. Rumor has it that they shut the Wolf down due to high water levels. That isn’t going to happen on the Peshtigo unless it gets a lot higher, the Menominee River is getting close.

People that get to go rafting Friday or this weekend are in for an epic adventure. The Peshtigo is running at +25″, just huge! Likewise the Menominee is running over 6,000CFS, again just huge. If you are looking to feed the adreneline rat or want to be able to brag about how big it was when you ran it, get on the phone with Kosir’s. This is it.

It is very unusual to have water this high at this time of year. Usually if you want water in the 20+ inch range on the Peshtigo you are talking about the second or third weekend in April, when the water is under 40 degrees and the day might be too. To have this and a weekend in the mid-70s and sunny is very very unusual.

The folks around Kosir’s are really pumped up, and you can count me in that number (obviously). It is going to really be a big weekend around here. Next weekend will still be good too, this much water can’t drain off that fast, but if you want peak flow and adventure, don’t hesitate.

The rain pretty much kept me inside most of the week, so I don’t have much to offer beyond the rafting stuff, except for this one little tidbit..

Gas prices are going down again. The Nymex is down another dime to 2.86, off of the peak of 3.43 May 1st. The 2.90 level was an important barrier, hopefully that triggers some selling and more lowered prices. It has been as low as 2.78 today. At the pump add 65-75 cents to those numbers.

So far oil is down 4-5% today, and I hope it gets out of hand and goes down 40 or 50%.

Well it is a very full day, so forward I must madly dance. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday June 22, 2011 Paddler’s Alert!!

Go rafting this weekend if at all possible!

The 5 gallon bucket that I put outside yesterday morning as the first raindrops fell now has 3.5″ of rain in it.

The rivers are rising really fast, and the Peshtigo River cleared the +18″ mark this morning. If we don’t see another drop of rain the Pesh should see low 20s or higher for the weekend since the watershed saw more rain than we did, and it will take a couple of days to all get here.

That assumes that it won’t rain any more. The HPC and I agree that most of the storm has passed as far as quantity of rain. They are calling for another 1/2-3/4″ for rainfall by Friday morning. That looks pretty reasonable to me. The TV weather channel 2-2 out of green Bay is still showing us seeing another 2″ of rain possible in the same time frame.

The Peshtigo is rising almost as fast as I have seen it rise. At about 11pm last night it broke the 12″ mark, and by 9am it broke through the 18″ mark. The last reading that I have is from about an hour ago, showing it up over 19″ according to the USGS/NWS readings.

Go rafting this weekend if at all possible!

The water levels are like good levels for spring rafting, and this is the kind of water that the river is world famous for. The best part is that you get spring rafting water levels without the 38 degree water and cold days, plus the price is cheap, only $25.

It is very unusual to see this much rain or this high of a river at this time of year. Pounce on it, these ARE the good old days.

We have been spreading the word on our Facebook pages and in our personal networks, call Kosir’s asap to get the best trip times and to make your reservations for the weekend.

YEEEEEE HAAAA!

Tuesday June 21st, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

We are about to get a wet start to the day today, and there is more on the way. If you are inclined to go whitewater rafting or paddling, this coming weekend should be BIG.

The river will be going up already this week from last Sunday’s rain. When I was out early afternoon Sunday the rain was falling at a steady moderate pace. It added up fast, filling the two lane rut road across except for the very middle, and it was softening up gravel roads. Local rain gauges show about 1/3 of an inch, but having been out in it and seeing how it added up I would insist that it was 1/2-3/4″ plus.

That was around here. To our northwest the Peshtigo River watershed was getting pounded. The storm was doing the railroad track thing where wave after wave of the storm hit the same spots, and it was squared off on the Peshtigo River watershed. We watched the radar showed wave after wave of the storm heading north like they were on a rail. Radar returns showed 1.5-2.5″ across the watershed.

That water started hitting the whitewater stretch yesterday, and the river is already up to almost +5 from about zero or minus one.

That is just the Hors d’œuvre.. As anyone that has been watching the weather or news recently knows, we are in for a wet week. To use my favorite line from the movie Twister, “It’s not coming, it’s already here…”. Right now (9am) it is as dark out as it would be at dawn, and it is coming down pretty good. The TV and lights flickering tell me that some lightning may be around too, oops there was a rumble.. and down went the lights.

So how much rain are we expecting this week? Right now the estimate is 2-3″ around here. Here is a HPC QPF for the next 5 days. Click it to make it bigger.

The NWS Hydrological Outlook mentions high end possibilities in the 3-4″ range in some areas.

The story is that we have a very strong storm that is expected to slowly track east along the MN/IA border and continue east across WI. It is a slow moving storm that will probably take until Thursday or Friday to clear out. In the meantime it will sit and spin off wave after wave of precipitation. It does have a Gulf of Mexico moisture tap and eventually will tap the Atlantic too.

Here is a link to the GFS 850/MSLP/6 hour QPF animation that shows how slowly the storm will be moving.

Sunday Chicago Mike asked me for a high end prediction for the Peshtigo River next weekend. I raised a few eyebrows when my guess was +14 or +15. That assumes that the rain in the forecast actually hits the ground.

With what is down now a guess of +4 to +6 is pretty reasonable, and with a couple of inches more hitting the already soggy watershed, seeing it blow through the 12″ mark running isn’t out of the question at all. My guess might be  little low, but sometimes forecasts get a little carried away on the QPF numbers, so I tempered it a little.

So, if you are inclined to go whitewater rafting, make plans to be around here this weekend. The river should be big and fun, and people will have a ball.

In spite of having a wet week in the forecast all week, the weekend looks great. Saturday is expected to be mostly sunny and in the mid-70s, and Sunday only adds a few clouds to make it partly cloudy.

Gas prices have been kicking our butts this summer and they finally are on the way down. The NYMEX RBOB price is down about a dime from last week. Locally the pump price was at $3.68 along 32 in Lakewood Townsend and Carter. I didn’t move on it, hoping for further downward movement today.

I am not happy about 3.68 gas, but I do like the direction. It beats the peak price of $4.17 earlier in the year.

Looking up on WI gas prices, they are showing a station in Kenosha selling 87 at $3.35. It is still a dollar too high, but a fine start.

Steve from Athelstane Weather sent in a few pictures of the northern lights from June 4th on Friday. Here are a couple of them.

The display that night wasn’t as strong as we had hoped for, but there should be more to come. Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be a weak one, but we are ramping up toward it’s peak and will likely see more displays. Thanks for sharing the pictures Steve!

Here are some local events for this weekend.

I want to give you a heads up that there are a lot of events coming for the 4th of July weekend ( A 3 day’er with the 4th on Monday!)

Also up front is a heads up on the Super Dave Memorial Ride, Swap Meet and Poker Run July 7-8-9. There are about 10 bars and campgrounds involved with it up here and it is a very big event. I will have more info on it directly.

The great outdoors report starts with the bugs. It has been a strange year for our pesky insect population. Last week I worked outside a couple of days and never saw a mosquito and came away with one tick. There were spots not to far away where the mosquitoes and gnats were a cloud. I am not sure why it is so hit n miss this year or why they are gathered up like that.

Apparently one of the local deer had a fawn not too far from here, and the little wobbly legged baby has been spotted a few times. So far it has eluded my lens, but both Chris and I have seen it on separate occasions.

I am going to be working on a web site this week for a guy that sells a neat little fishing gadget. It looks like a quality ball point pen, but when you click it a wire loop comes out that when released will firmly hold your hook while you put a line through it, sharpen it or twist up the line to make your knot. It is a cool gadget soon to be on sale on a new web site.

That is about it from here today. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB