July 2011

Friday July 15th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

As of my 1pm check, the line of rain for today looks pretty minor. It is a cloudy cool day and it will hard for a storm to get rolling.

The main focus of the rain looks like it is going south. There is a narrow band of green on the radar going through about Vilas Co, and the bulk of the rain will be to the south of us other than that band. If it is just that one line on the radar, it could end up radar rain or a couple of tenths. We could see another weak line like that overnight, opinions vary on that one.

The latest HPC and North American Model updates are showing a chance of a storm catching us tomorrow, and are showing QPFs in the 0.5-0.75″ range. It isn’t expected to be an all day thing, but rather a line of storms.

There is some disagreement on timing, morning or  afternoon. If we have a partly cloudy day with some sun to get convection going, and a wet atmosphere, I could see an afternoon storm and a good downpour.

Once the area of rain is past tomorrow we should be done with rain for the weekend. There is no mention of rain Saturday night or Sunday.

I think my path here is to be aware of the possibility of rain tomorrow and be ready for it, but not worry about it too much.

It isn’t an organized storm bearing down on us. It is more that conditions are right, and a little energy in the atmosphere or afternoon convection could trigger some showers or a storm. Recent storm paths, including today’s, have pushed the bulk of the rain south, and I am not sold on the idea that it will suddenly change tomorrow.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday July 14th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

We have an unusually cool cloudy day today. Instead of our normal high of about 80, we are a very comfortable 70 degrees this afternoon. There is a good overcast and some rain showers scattered in the area. So far I have only had a few drops on the windshield.

The 70 and cloudy day has me thinking that I should push my mountain of inside work back 6 hours and tackle outside work while it is so nice out. It is a prefect day for cutting grass, weeds, firewood, working on cars and lawnmowers or other outside chores.

The devil on the left shoulder thinks that I should go fishing instead. With unsettled weather and a full moon it certainly is a prime day for it.

As I was riding home from my early afternoon appointment wondering what I should write about today the obvious answer was the wildflowers. The fields and roadsides are alive with color right now. The new player is the black centered daisies, but there are a lot more different plants in bloom.

The weather outlook for the weekend is pretty typical of summer. Friday and Saturday should be in the 80-85 range, and Sunday in the low 90s. There will be some humidity around to make the heat more effective. Rain chances peak Friday night at 50%, with today and Saturday at 40% and Friday at 30%.

The rain doesn’t look like anything organized, it is typical summer showers that go along with the heat and humidity.

Next week looks hot and juicy. The forecast holds a lot of humidity and days in the low or mid-90s. That is the product of a clockwise flow from a huge high pressure system. As it approached it gave us great days in the 70s this week as it brought the weather out of the north.  Next week as it passes and the warm humid air comes up from the south, we get more summer like weather.

I have not encountered any new events since the last update, but I will give you a heads up that Hog Wrestle 2011 is coming up at the Caldron Falls Bar July 23. That is not this Saturday, but the one after.

I was there last week and they had a few new beers on tap. They have always been a good stop for us premium beer lovers. Now they have Nitro Stout, Stella, Spotted Cow, and Blue Moon on tap in addition to the six more domestic offerings.

A hot weekend is a good time to get wet. At Kosir’s this week the infamous Totally Tubular Jay has been busy shuttling tubers riding down the calm stretch of the Peshtigo River. It has become very popular.

The Peshtigo River is at -1.5 according to the morning update, which is a little rocky but runnable. The Menominee is a better choice for rafting with it’s dam controlled flows running much higher.

That is about it for today. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday July 13th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

Last weekend went a lot better than expected for rain. We had a nice weekend until Sunday, when it tried to rain, but could only produce a few drops. It was a classic case of radar rain where it was raining a couple of thousand feet up, but it wasn’t making it to the ground. It was also a great example of why you shouldn’t let a little rain in the forecast cancel weekend plans.

Saturday night’s sunset was amazing. There were big backlit clouds that the sun was poking beams through. With the high humidity, the beams showed up really well. The back lighting brought pinks and oranges and a really dramatic display.

We are having a very pleasant week as high pressure brings us cool air from the north. Today and tomorrow should bring delightful high temperatures in the low 70s.

There is usually a price to pay for that though, and this week is no different. As the big high pressure system drifts to the east the return flow from the clockwise circulation will begin to pump warmer more humid air up from the south. Temperatures are forecast to start climbing as the weekend comes. Friday and Saturday we are looking at low 80s. By Sunday the NWS has us for low 90s.

The warmer moist air will bring some instability and fuel for rain and storms. Right now our best chances look like Thursday and Thursday night (50%). Friday and Saturday the NWS has us for a 30% chance, and no mention of rain in Sunday’s forecast.

Looking at the GFS it doesn’t show any organized storms, but rather random chances for instability showers or storms. Most of that is shown staying to our west, leaving us with a total rainfall forecast of 0.1-0.25″ for the weekend.

Fishing should be good this weekend. Friday is a full moon, putting much of this week as well as the weekend in peak days according to the solunar tables. Having unsettled weather to our west should help too, both with cloudy days and with a down trend on the barometer.

Here are some events for the weekend..

There are a couple of more that I found..

Pine Ridge Raceway is having a car show and swap meet Saturday.

There is a benefit for the victims of the Crivitz apartment building fire on May 25th. Most of the 19 displaced residents were elderly or disabled. The benefit is Sunday at the Gateway Bar in Crivitz.

The same place that hosts the Porterfield Country Music Festival is having their Cruisin’ Oldies Festival and car show. Look for a lot of classic 50s cars and do-wop and oldies bands.

My apologies for again being late with my early week update. I am one busy guy right now. That is a great thing, but sometimes it is a little overwhelming and cuts into the stuff that I like to do like updating here. I will do my best to keep the updates coming in a timely fashion.

That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday July 8th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

My apologies on not having an early week update. It was a bad week around here with the short week making it more concentrated. Like many of you I will be looking forward to putting that behind me and getting some weekend in.

The weekend weather looks interesting. I checked 4 sources and got 4 different ideas. We have a weak cold front expected to be over us today and as the heat an humidity build it could bring some showers and storms later in the day.

The NWS has the front moving north into the UP, but it could head south again tomorrow again bringing the chance of rain.

The North American Model (NAM) is showing a storm coming in from the west about Saturday night as a line of thunderstorms. It could bring some heavy rain if it actually unfolds that way.

The GFS is also showing a line of storms, but they are a little slower with it, bringing it through early Sunday morning.

The TV weather channel is the best looking one, with a chance of storms today and again Sunday afternoon or night.

It is a challenging weekend to forecast. The atmosphere will be hot and humid, there is cold air just to the north, and all it takes is a trigger to set off the instability. In our case the triggers are the warm/cold air boundary today, and a jet steak area of energy that is predicted to pass over Northern WI for anywhere from Saturday to Sunday night.

The atmosphere will have some energy available as we see hot and humid air building in as the weekend progresses.  My best bet is that we will be ok Saturday until at least late afternoon, and the chance for rain goes up Sunday as that day progresses. With highs around 90 and plenty of humidity, I think that is the one to watch.

I always hated physics in college and tech school, but now watching the weather it is fascinating. It is amazing how much energy it takes to evaporate water, and it doesn’t give anything off. That energy is stored in a humid atmosphere in immense amounts, just waiting for a trigger.

One metric that I watch is CAPE, Conductive Available Potential Energy. To oversimplify it, it represents the potential of the atmosphere to produce rapidly building storms and severe weather.

In the case of the storm for this afternoon the CAPE is estimated at about 1,200 J/kg, and Sunday afternoon they are in the 1,500-2,000 J/kg range. That tells me that both will bring the chance of a thunderstorm, and Sunday’s 2,000 high end could mean some pretty good ones.  When you get over about 2,500 watch out, that is a very unstable atmosphere.

So anyway bottom line on the weather- It looks like a hot July weekend. There is the best chance for showers or T-storms today and Sunday afternoon, but a minor chance all weekend.

We have some big events this weekend.

At the top of the list is the 3rd annual Northeast Poker Run and Super Dave Memorial Party. It is a big poker run that benefits the Crivitz Food Pantry. It involves 10 local bars and campgrounds. Super Dave was a great guy and bike mechanic that offered free road service to broken down bikers on the poker run. He passed away the day after the poker run a few years ago and is very much missed by a lot of people. Anyway, here is a poster.

Saturday is also the Athelstane Volunteer Fire Department Annual Parade & Picnic.  The parade lines up at 10:30 am at town hall (On Hwy A just north of C) proceeding to Fireman’s Park. Activities include men, women and kids’ water fight competitions, games, grab bags, silent auction, Rafflemania and refreshments including home made french fries.
Music in the evening will be provided by Force of Habit.

It will be a hot weekend so a good one to get wet floating down the Menominee River on a Bear Point Yacht Club Float Trip Saturday. They get together in the morning and do shuttles and then the float trip starts at 11. They float down the river in anything from an inner tube to a pontoon boat and end at the Bear Point for more fun.

We will be at Kosir’s as always, and it should be a good weekend. We only had a little rain this week, but the rivers are doing ok. The Peshtigo is at about a +1, and 335cfs. It doesn’t seem to be going down any, so we should have an above normal weekend. The median flow for today over the last 12 years is 205cfs, and we are at 335.

With the hot weather expected it would be a good weekend to take to the river in a funyak or tube, or take a sit on top kayak out on the flowage. Kosir’s.

That is about it for me. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB