Saturday October 13th, 2012
Greetings and welcome!
My apologies that I and so late with this update, I have had a very busy week.
Anyway, we have a wet weekend ahead. If it were two months from now I’d be very excited about the pending storm. Considering the timing of it in prime bow season, the weekend of my friend Dale’s softball benefit tournament, and with the other events, I have a little less enthusiasm for it.
I just did quite a bit of research on the storm and it is a fairly unusual storm for this time of year. The NWS forecast discussion points out that the storm will bring precipitable moisture levels in the atmosphere up to around 1.5″, something like two standard deviations above normal for this time of year. The atmosphere will be loaded with moisture, bringing the possibility of some good downpours.
They said that CAPE values would be in the 500-1,000 J/kg range. Above 1,000 you are getting into a moderately unstable atmosphere, so there is a chance of some thunderstorms.
There is a big high pressure system centered over about Pennsylvania with a large clockwise circulation. To our west around Montana there is a large low pressure system rotating counterclockwise. Between the two of them they act like a pump and pump up warm moist air from the south.
Upper air temperatures will increase something like 15ºC over the next day, and as I mentioned above, there will be some moisture. With the track of the low pressure it is a classic southern storm like we hope for in the winter.
Like a lot of them, it looks like it will start out with the focus of the moisture downstate, and then we catch up. The QPFs that I am getting as of 2am Saturday are showing us getting between 0.25-0.5″ of rain for Saturday, and then Saturday night and Sunday bringing the total up to 1.0-1.25″ by late Sunday.
As with any storm there will probably be waves of more and less rain.
On the other side of this Thursday night/Friday morning brought a cold night. Athelstane Weather marked a low of 24.6 for Friday morning. It was a clear and starry night, and definitely a hard freeze. There were ice crystals on things like the porch rail, and the steps were a little slick. It wasn’t quite cold enough to worry about water systems, but it was getting close.
Deer sightings this week have been occasional. Wednesday night I spotted a couple of fair sized bucks when I came around the corner and surprised them in the road. I didn’t get to see them sparring, but I’d guess that is why they were together. I didn’t see any Thursday night, and Friday night brought a single doe.
In events this weekend..
I mentioned a benefit softball tournament for a friend Dale. Dale is family over at Kosir’s and a great guy. He is one of those guys that it is always fun to be around. He had a bad car accident a few weeks ago an has spent the last couple of weeks in the ICU. There is a benefit softball tournament in Crivitz this weekend, and a raffle fundraiser January 19th.
I am pretty sure that there is a fishing tournament on High falls this weekend, that is what one of the guys at work mentioned.
Otherwise here is Chris’ event calendar..
Food & Beverages – Extraction Demos – Everyone Welcome |
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2-7 PM |
Beyond that I have been pulling some really long work hours recently, so I am not quite as up to date as I would like to be. Again my apologies.
Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB