2013

Thursday June 20th, 2013

Dude Where’s My Ark?

Greetings and welcome!

It has been an interesting week for weather, and it looks like the next week or so will be too.

We had a couple of nights this week that got down to 37 and 38 degrees in the early morning hours. That was thanks to a cool air mass over us and some clear skies allowing radiational cooling. The days with it were pretty nice, with upper 60s Monday, low 70s Tuesday and upper 70s yesterday.

Yesterday was one of those unique northern WI days that started out with a small fire in the wood burner to take the chill off in the morning, and a brief running of the AC in the afternoon to bring the house back under 80.

The weather ahead is the focus of my attention this morning. We have a warm, moist unstable air mass moving our way, and it will put a chance of rain into the forecast pretty much daily for the next week, along with some 80+ temperatures.

Some of the atmospheric dynamics shown for over the weekend are pretty impressive. There will be plenty of moisture for the storms to work with, and a highly unstable atmosphere. The NWS forecast discussion mentions precipitable moisture values at 150-200% of normal, and CAPE values in the 2,500-3,500 J/KG range.

The CAPE values have my attention. According to the Tornado Chaser’s site, 2500-3500 is a very unstable atmosphere and 3,500+ is extremely unstable. With an atmosphere that unstable we can expect a chance at torrential rains, strong winds, and big hail.

Usually when I see CAPE values over about 2,000 I start worrying about severe weather. My memory is a fickle servant, but I am thinking that the CAPEs were in the low 2,000 range when the Riverview tornado came through. I am not sure why we are not seeing discussion of severe storms when CAPEs are considerably higher than that. There is a good chance that it will come as the heavy weather gets closer.

Anyway, we are looking at a wet weekend.

I am not expecting all day every day rain, but more like afternoon thunderstorms as the atmosphere gets whipped up by the sun, and the resulting storms lasting into the night.

In a scenario like this with a wet and very unstable atmosphere, it is almost impossible to say when or where it will rain. It could be one of those weekends where south of 64 they get pounded and we get away with a mostly dry weekend, or it could go the other way. All that I can say for sure is that somewhere in the upper Midwest is going to get a lot of rain and some big storms.

The moisture values in the wet atmosphere are pretty impressive. Right now the 5 day HPC QPF has us in the 2-2.5″ of rain range between 6am today and 6am Tuesday. The Hydrology section of the NWS forecast discussion is as follows..

.HYDROLOGY… ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 SEVERAL COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ARE EXPECTED…LEADING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF TORRENTIAL RAINS AND POTENTIAL FOR URBAN FLOODING DUE TO THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. ANY TRAINING OR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 5 INCHES IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME REGION ON SEVERAL DAYS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. &&

So, it might be a wet weekend.

About the only event that I am seeing right now is a Saturday fundraiser at Randall’s Resort for the Mountain Ambulance Service. It runs from 10am-10pm with food, music and raffles, and is obviously for a good cause.

Unfortunately I don’t have a lot more on my outline to talk about today. It was another busy week with work. I can tell you that last night’s sunset was exceptional, but unfortunately I didn’t get to spend time watching it or take any pictures.

I did have a chance before one of the rafting trips last weekend to play with a little trick photography down by the river. It was cloudy at the time, and with a little manipulation of the camera settings I came away with a new desktop background. This is the image straight out of the camera, with no Photoshop or adjustment at all. I’ll share it in its full size, so you can have it too. Click it and when the big image loads, right click it and pick either save as.. or set as desktop background.

That is news from here. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday June 14th, 2013

Greetings and welcome!

My apologies that I haven’t been updating the past few weeks. No I didn’t fall off of the side of the planet or get carried away by mosquitoes.  Work has been overwhelming lately, and life has been mostly about work or sleep. I haven’t gone fishing, had a campfire, or even finished cutting the grass yet this year, so it is pretty out of control. I usually avoid updating when I am cranky which is most of the time now. I figure if my friends want to hear some overtired old guy complain about work they probably know where to find that on their own.

We have been enjoying some pleasant weather lately. A lot of days have been beautiful and in the 70s. There was a warm one Tuesday when the bank clock in Wausaukee said 87 in the sun, but mostly it has been really nice out.

The great greening of the land has made huge progress since my last update. The understory of the forest has filled in, and the late spring variety of green shades has been spectacular. It all seems like it is a week or two behind normal this year. The ferns are up and growing, but they are not the waist deep bounty that they usually are by mid-June.

The usual assortment of bugs is present and accounted for. The wood ticks have been about normal, but the gators were late to the party this year. Those have been hit and miss. I have been to places with plentiful populations, and places that are normally bountiful with mosquitoes that I haven’t seen any.  I am way behind in my Repel usage this summer, with most of it going below the knee to keep the ticks at bay.

From what I have seen the fishing has been good this year. I have seen a lot of friends with some great bass and panfish catches. Tourism has been waaaay way down this summer, so other than Memorial Day weekend, the lakes and landings have been fairly quiet. Not only is that more relaxing for the fishermen, the fish are less wary than in a busy year. I am hoping to get in on a little of that myself very soon.

We have been having a spectacular spring for whitewater rafting water levels. This weekend looks like the first time in 2013 that we will have normal flows on the whitewater rivers, until now it has been above normal all year.

We have had colder than normal water temperatures thanks to the late thaw. Now it is getting to be about time to get wet. A visit to the new beach at Boat Landing #9 is probably in order, and some tubing and sit on top kayaking with Kosir’s on Caldron Falls flowage sounds fun too. I did both the tubing and kayaking last year and had a great time.

New this year they have pontoon boat cruises on Caldron Falls. They have a really nice new 27′ pontoon boat that they take people out on. You can get something like 10 people on it, and they are up for stuff like wine and sunset cruises, general tours, and maybe even some fishing. I was supposed to go out a week ago Tuesday, but rain squelched our plan. I do expect to get out there soon and will definitely bring the camera along to catch all of the scenery and stuff like eagle pictures.

There are a couple of events coming up this weekend. The local paper has a car, truck and bike show in Lakewood at the Pavilion Grounds Saturday from about 9-4.  The Cro9ked Lake/Mountain Lions Club is having a pancake and porkie breakfast Saturday from 8-11 at Mulligan’s Sports Bar on the south end of Lakewood. That is a benefit for the Christian Food Pantry in Townsend.

Saturday from 11-5 there is a fundraiser for the Forest Co ATV and LMT Trails snowmobile club at the Wabeno fairgrounds. There will be raffles, food and drink, and recreational equipment vendors on site. That is a benefit for trail maintenance and improvements.

This is also the weekend of the Porterfield Country Music Festival, a pretty big deal with some big name acts.

I am sure that there are more events for this weekend, but I haven’t been to town in a while, so I haven’t had a chance to scour posters.

The OWI Task Force has been hammering the Twin Bridge area most busy weekends this year. In the past they would put up a sign to increase awareness. Rumor has it that they are going to ditch the signs and just patrol the area on weekends all summer. You can still go there and go out and have fun, but make sure that you have your seat belt on, your vehicle in order, and if you plan to cocktail, use a designated driver or use the Safe Ride program to get home. Don’t feed the bears.

It looks like we have a nice weekend coming up. We are looking at 70s Saturday and 80s Sunday with only a minor chance of a passing shower. No complaints about that.

That is about it for today. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting.

RJB

Wednesday May 29th, 2013

Greetings and welcome!

It looks like it was a busy weekend last weekend. There were plenty of people out and enjoying the fun things that we do around here.

Yesterday on the way to Lakewood the damp day and the mist in the trees really showed off the colors of spring. The trees are always more vivid on damp overcast days, but combined with all of the various shades of the new leaves, it was a show as good or better than fall. A lot of the fruit trees, flowering crabs, and lilacs are in bloom, and that added to the show.

It looks like a wet few days between now and the weekend. There is a storm to our west that is kind of camping there and giving us an occasional wave of rain. It is a slow moving system, and it could keep a chance of showers lingering into Saturday and leave Sunday nice. My hunch is that it will clear out a little ahead of time  and bring us a nice weekend.

This weekend the state gives us a freebee. You can fish without a license, ride unregistered and out of state ATVs/UTVs on the trails, and the state parks are open for admission without a fee.

ATV riders in the neighborhood should stop by the Dun-Good Clubhouse in Dunbar for an open house sort of thing with dealer displays/demos and coupons from local businesses.

In years past Marinette Co has opened up their parks for free this weekend too, but I haven’t seen anything on it yet and a net search produced no leads.

This coming Sunday at 2pm there is music in the park at Evergreen Park in Wausaukee featuring Fossil and Tom St John. I have know Tom since high school and have seen him play many times. They play 70s rock with acoustic guitars and are very good at it. Stop by if you get the chance.

The whitewater rafting remains very good. Last weekend found above normal water levels and people had a blast. The water has gone down to normal (median flow is 399cfs and we are at 404),  but with the rain this week I don’t expect it to go down much. I consider anything above 300cfs the fun zone, and it is runnable down to 200 if you are dedicated. Four hundred plus sounds good to me.

If I had a little extra time I would probably be fishing today. It should be about prime time for bass and bluegills right now. Hopefully I can get out later this week.

That is about it for today. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday May 24th, 2013

Greetings and welcome!

It has been a very busy week so I only have a few things to offer for my last minute update.

First up is the weather..

It looks like we won’t see too much rain, but there will be some cold nights.

Friday- Sunny with a high of 62 and a low of 37

Saturday- Sunny 62/36

Sunday- Sunny 68/40

Monday- Partly cloudy 69/45

Some of those low temperatures could get stretched a little on clear nights. The air mass over us is fairly cool and clear skies always bring brisk nights. It is very nice out right now, but bring an extra blanket and sweatshirts for around the campfire and after sunset.

Last night we had a big full moon lighting up the landscape. That will make star gazing a little less ideal, but it is bright enough to walk around at night. Usually a full moon means prime fishing time too.

I didn’t make it back to town this week to cement event details. About the only thing that I have  to add is the Twin Bridge Rescue rummage sale Saturday the 25th from 8-1pm. There are a lot of other rummage sale signs popping up around town, as Chris pointed out, Memorial Day weekend is big for rummage sales.

There is a sign in Crivitz by the post office that says that the OWI Task Force will be in the area again this weekend. Drive sober or use designated drivers. A lot of bars/resorts/restaurants will come and pick you up and give you a round trip, give your favorite places a call and see what they can do.

Thanks to a lot of rain this week the whitewater rafting this weekend will be excellent. The Peshtigo is running about +8″, pretty much a fun level for anyone. The Menominee River trips with Kosir’s start this weekend, and that river is running big too.

If your thing isn’t whitewater, they offer lazy river tubing trips, sit on top kayaks for touring Caldron Falls Flowage, and now they have pontoon boat tours on Caldron Falls Flowage on a really nice new pontoon boat.  As always I will be there taking pictures of the rafting action and editing up the movies.

Cabin owners will want to bring along the lawn mower. It is time to cut grass.

So far the ticks have been the biggest bug issue, and they haven’t been bad the past few days. I’d be surprised if the rain didn’t bring out some gators, but it hasn’t been my experience yet.

That rain also dropped fire danger down quite a bit. You will still want to be careful, but an inch plus of rain this week really helped.

That is pretty much it from here. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB