2015

Sunday 7-19-15

Greetings and welcome!

We really dodged a bullet yesterday. The forecast was for a hot muggy day with and extremely unstable atmosphere, and a cold front coming in the afternoon when there would be maximum heating. Usually that is the recipe for severe weather.

The CAPE values really got my attention. If I see them over about 2,000 j/Kg I expect thunderstorms and possible severe weather. Yesterday the models had them in the 3-4,000 range. I don’t remember the number but I am pretty sure that we were under 3,000 when the Riverview tornado came.

Anyway, the line of storms came through at about 6am, the time of day with the least heating from the sun. There couldn’t have been a better outcome. Even so there were some severe weather warnings south of Green Bay. I haven’t seen the news to see how that turned out. At any rate we went from a worst case scenario to a best case scenario.

We ended up with very nice weather. It turned out to be a hot sunny 86 degree day. There were a few wind gusts in the afternoon but nothing of consequence.

Hog Wrestling was fun at the Caldron Falls Bar Saturday. A lot of people came and it was a nice day for it. Reports had the OWI task force out doing their thing later on. There were a couple of taxis and a couple of shuttle buses, so there were safe rides home to be had.

The weather for the week ahead looks nice. For the most part it looks like upper 70s and low 80s with clear weather. There is a chance of a thunderstorm later in the week.

I will be back Tuesday night with the latest and some events too. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday night 7-17-15

Greetings and welcome!

It is the eve of the World Championship Hog Wrestle at the Caldron Falls Bar. Thousands will come to join the fun, and I will be one of them. The hog wrestling action starts at noon till about 5, and the fun and goes on into the night with live music. It is rain or shine, and as always you will want to bring your safe ride home/designated driver.

The weather for tomorrow has me a little nervous. It will be hot and muggy with temps in the 85-90ºF range. The NWS has the rain chances at 50%, with the best chance between 1-7pm.

The setup with the hot humid air and a cold front coming though in the afternoon is impressive. We will have a very unstable atmosphere and a cold front for a trigger. It should bring a line of strong storms at some point, and possibly even severe weather.

When I see CAPE values over 2,000 I expect that a thunderstorm is likely. Tomorrow’s maps are showing CAPE values in the 3-4,000 j/Kg range. That is impressive and kinda scary. Between the humidity and unstable air we could see some strong storms and heavy downpours.

A big factor is how much sun we get. If it stays cloudy the chances of strong storms goes down. A sunny day will bring a better chance of big storms.

Don’t let it change your day, but keep an eye on the sky and take shelter if it gets big.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday july 14th, 2015

Greetings and welcome!

Last weekend turned out pretty good considering the chances of rain late Saturday and Sunday. As it turned out we didn’t get rain until late Sunday night.

About 3am I woke up and checked the radar. There was an enormous blob of red and yellow and a pretty rowdy looking initial line of storms about two counties away and heading in this direction. I went around unplugging stuff in case of a lightning strike, and even emptied the 5 gallon pail that I use as a rain gauge. As it turned out the storm pretty much evaporated about 40 miles west of here and wasn’t much when it got here. It might have been a half inch of rain at best.

The atmosphere remained hot and juicy and Monday evening it all came together. There were many reports of wind damage south of Green Bay and in the Fox Valley and northwest. Around here it was mostly heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder.

On the way home after work I stopped to get a phone pic of this cloud about a mile east of the house. You should have seen it from the side. It was enormous.

The septic guy (Hardings) met me at the house. Before he got started and I checked the radar, and there were a couple of minor green spots to the immediate west. We tried to get ‘er done before the rain came, but it ended up with us in a heavy downpour. Apparently the storm formed right over us.

Here is a wider view of the storm. The one arrow shows my location, about a mile north of the top step of western Marinette County, and close to the edge.

The other lines show that the areas of heavier rain followed a fairly pronounced line one after another like train cars on a track. In the end my rain bucket showed about 2″ for Sunday night and Monday’s rain.

Today was much cooler and pretty windy. Tonight will be a chilly one with the cold air mass and a clear sky.

This coming weekend is a big one for events. The top of the list is Hog Wrestling at Caldron Falls Bar. This a huge event with thousands of people having a wild time.

You will want to bring your designated driver this weekend. It is always a big weekend for the OWI Task Force, the State Patrol etc. looking for drunk drivers.

Also on the event list are the Cruisin’ Oldies show at the Porterfield Country Music Festival site, and in Lakewood there is the Mardi Gras. That has live music Friday & Saturday night and Sunday afternoon There is a parade Sat morning too. There are carnival rides too. The church on the north end of town is having a big Fleazar flea market.

I am not sure, but I think that the Town of Wagner FVD picnic is this weekend, and the Town of Doty VFD picnic is this Saturday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night, and then we are expecting a big warm-up for the weekend. I am expecting mid-80s Friday and Saturday (Green Bay weather says 88 Sat) and then mid-80s again, Sunday with an increasing chance of a t-storm later Saturday night and Sunday. Must be July.

That is it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday July 8th, 2015

Greetings and welcome!

The 4th of July weekend was pretty busy around here. The roads were already busy Thursday, and were still busy Monday. It is good to see the area busy with people having fun.

The weather wasn’t quite as nice as I expected, but it wasn’t too bad. One thing that stood out was the hazy sky. By now your news buddies have probably told you about the big fires up in Canada. Saturday was pretty hazy and had a ring around the sun. When I was in Antigo Saturday afternoon I swear that I could smell smoke above and beyond the occasional campfire. It is still hazy tonight.

Monday we had some rain as a storm moved through. I don’t have an honest total but I’d guess it for at least an inch. It left runoff tracks in the driveway and the wood cart filled up pretty good.

Farther to our south there were 4(?) EF0 and EF1 tornadoes. Those hit a few scattered spots near Shawano, Pella, and Gillett. A friend of a FaceBook friend posted a picture from Peshtigo that looked a lot like a funnel. Here in Silver Cliff it got a little windy and rained a lot, but that is about it.

This coming weekend brings two events so far. One is the Athelstane VFD Picnic on Saturday the 11th. I haven’t made it there in a few years, but I remember winning a bunch of beer in the raffles and having a good time. I am always in for a good time for a good cause.

The other event for the weekend is the Bear Point Yacht Club Menominee River Float Trip. I have always had a good time at Bear Point and this sounds like a fun one. It is hard to beat floating down a lazy river on a summer afternoon.

This coming weekend looks to be in the low to mid-80s and a little humid. As that humidity builds we could see some of those summer thunderstorms pop up late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, and the chances go up a little for Sunday. Until later Sunday it doesn’t look like anything organized, mostly warm air in advance of some low pressure and rain Sunday night into Monday.

That is news for now. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB