April 2018

Saturday 4-14-18

Greetings and welcome!

This is one crazy snowstorm.

Last night the radar looked impressive. I woke up quite surprised that we only had about an inch and a half of new snow. I expected much more. Going to Lakewood on Hwy F, starting at about Wheeler Lake, they had about 4″ on the ground. The TV said that Shawano had 15″ and they are what, about 60 miles away? Crazy.

Today the radar again was quite impressive. It snowed all day and into the night. Looking out of the front door at 8pm I have just a little accumulation on my windshield wipers. If I went by only looking at the radar I would expect 6″  just from today alone, but my storm grand total so far is less than 2″.

At that point I think that the word of the day should be virga. That is where precip falls but evaporates before it gets to the ground.

The NWS is still predicting 5″ tonight, 9″ tomorrow, and 2″ Sunday night. If you add that to what they got in  Shawano last night some of the crazy 24-34″ totals are not that far out of line.

Today was not a pleasant day. There were strong winds blowing last night’s snow across fields, out of trees, and off of rooftops. There were occasional flurries where snow pellets actually made it to the ground. Late afternoon my car said that it was 27 degrees out. The only thing missing was the snow. It looks like it is still coming.

One element of this storm that has my attention is the wind. The ground is soft from the frost coming out of it, so in theory the trees don’t have their usual anchor. My guess is that if we have heavy snow and strong winds as predicted we could see some come down and possibly hit power lines. We didn’t have any of that today that I saw, but the heavy snow was missing. I am hoping for the best for tomorrow.

The first whitewater rafting trips of the year running the Peshtigo River with Kosir’s went out this weekend. We had groups of the hearty go out both Friday and Saturday. The weather wasn’t balmy, but it was a lot warmer than last weekend. The water level varied from +6 to +8.

RJB

Friday April 13th, 2018

Greetings and welcome!

As expected the forecast has calmed down a little. The peak snow total that I saw predicted was 34″. Now we are more level headed with  8-14 inches of snow . We will see round one today, then a break, then the main event tonight into Sunday.

It wouldn’t surprise me to still see significant snow totals, the forecast models still have us in the 1-2 inch rainfall equivalent bands. Right now the models that I looked at all have us in at about 14″.

I still have concerns about wet heavy snow and the wind combining with the soft muddy ground to take down some trees, so I am expecting some power outages.

It still looks like a significant storm with 12+ inches of snow and a lot of wind.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

April 12, 2018

Greetings and welcome!

Thursday afternoon

Here is a pinpoint prediction of new snow near my house over the next 5 days from the European model. That same model had Crivitz closer to two feet. The snow is expected to come a little at a time, with about a foot by Saturday night and the rest by Monday.

Something that will be a concern is the wind. The forecasts include wind gusts in the 30-40mph range. With some heavy snow on the trees and the soft ground from the frost coming out of it, there is a chance of some trees coming down. At that point I am not just getting the plow truck and firewood squared away, I am preparing for some time with the power out.

I am skeptical of this forecast. A lot of well advertised big storms don’t work out as expected. I said that last time and the 11″ of snow really came. Can we believe this one? I am not sure but the Boy Scout in me demands that I be prepared so I am off to go get ready.

RJB

PS- I just saw that the latest GFS model is backing off on the snow, and has us only in for about a foot.

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Thursday am

I have been watching our weekend storm closely. The models have been very consistent with a strong storm slowly moving over the area between Friday and Sunday night or possibly into Monday.

The guidance that I use has been showing the potential for 2-4″.. of rainfall equivalent. Usually I use a 10-12″ to the inch of rain to convert that to snowfall. Because it will start as rain, turn to a mix and then snow I am inclined to use about an 8:1 ratio. That still puts us in for a tremendous storm.

Right now the NWS is being very reserved and is not starting to predict totals. This was on the morning news on WBAY Channel 2 out of Green Bay this morning. My guidance supports these total. Buckle up for this one!

RJB

Sunday 4-8-18

Greetings and welcome!

I think that our spring is broken…

We had one crazy week last week in weather. If you count the Saturday night/Easter Sunday snow, we had over 1.5 feet of snow last week. The sun ate it where it could reach, but a lot remains in shaded areas.

We also had a much colder than normal week last week. Our normal high/low temperature is about 45/30. Friday and Saturday night were the coldest. Friday night/Saturday morning we went down to a low of 8 degrees. By 10am when the first raft trip of the year would have gone out it was up to 14.

Saturday night Sunday morning was colder. The low locally was 4 degrees in Wabeno and 8 in Crivitz. Antigo, about an hour west, set a new record with -8. Green Bay missed the all time record for coldest temp in April by three degrees.

Kosir’s delayed opening weekend of whitewater rafting on the river last weekend for a variety of reasons, mostly safety. With the snow and much below normal cold weather I had concerns about the river refreezing overnight and potentially causing a trip cancellation due to safety issues. I am not even remotely in charge of that decision, but next weekend it is!

It is just a shame that the snow and cold didn’t come during the snowmobile season. Now it is just a nuisance. It was crazy moving 12-15″ of snow in unplowed areas and seeing south facing hillsides bare the next day from the warm April sun.

The cold weather is expected to continue this week. The warm days look like Wednesday and Thursday when we could get up to around 50 degrees. Between now and then we are in for high temps around 40.

There is another storm showing up in the forecast models for Friday-Saturday night. It is a long ways off, but it looks a lot like last week’s storms. At five days out it is hardly a sure thing but we should watch the forecast. Right now high temps look to be in the 35-40 degree range.

The recent cold has me wondering about May. Will the world turn green as is typical about the second week in May? Will the lakes melt off in time for fishing season to open? What about the ATV trails? How are the maple syrup folks faring-will they still be tapping in May?

You just never know around here. In two weeks we could be in the 70s with big thunderstorms, or just as easily digging out of another foot of snow.

One nice side effect of this crazy weather.. no bugs yet.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB