Greetings and welcome!
It has been a heck of a winter this year and we are in for some incredible whitewater this spring. That is what this post mostly deals with.
We had a wet fall with a lot of rain after Labor Day, but we started off the winter slowly with little frost in the ground and almost no ice on the lakes in mid-December. We had a couple of good storms that got us onto the snowmobile trails in time for Christmas but there was still very little frost in the ground.
After the holidays the snow melted down, and we had a really cold spell for a couple of weeks. That gave us a good frost in the ground and a lid on the lakes.
The snow came back and was ample, and then a big rain storm hit with an inch plus of rain (more like 2″). That all soaked into the snow and froze like a brick. We got more snow on top of that, and it all happened again. And again. We have a heck of an ice base and a lot of water being held in it between the ice and snow.
We had a wet fall, and had 8″ of rain between September 1 and November 7th when they shut down the USGS gauge for the winter. The ground was pretty soggy going into winter, and the wetlands were pretty well full of water.
There are four elements to the Peshtigo River’s big spring flows. One is the base flow from the little spring creeks that is always there. That flow varies with the groundwater aquifer, and is a long term variation. It takes a while for the water that soaks into the ground to raise the aquifer level and show up in the creeks.
The upstream wetlands are a big part of the Peshtigo’s flow, and the flow from those again varies, depending on rain. Those are like a shock absorber, and are intermediate term base flow producers.
Short term runoff is the snow melt, the rain, and the snow that makes it to the river in a week or less.
The fourth element is the catalyst, the frost in the ground. That makes the snow melt water and rain flow directly to the river instead of soaking into the ground, collecting in wetlands, or being absorbed by trees and plants. That frost in the ground is what makes the river get really big in spring.
The way that I see it the coming spring rafting season is pretty close to ideal on all four elements. The wet fall both charged the aquifer for the spring creeks and filled the wetlands. The base flow of the Pesh hasn’t gone under zero since mid-October with two exceptions, and those were probably when it was freezing up.
We should have a good base flow to start with, and as I mentioned that is a long term element. Even if we had no snow melt, no rain, and no frost in the ground we would probably see above zero to +6″ water into May just from base flow.
We have an ample snow pack with a good amount of ice layered into it. I see that as plentiful runoff. After a couple of warm days or some rain water from it will probably hit the river fast running off across an icy base. The ice will also slow the thawing of the ground, so we will probably have the frozen ground fast runoff catalyst for a while too.
The only way that it could get better is if it rains a lot this spring. We have had a decent amount of precip over the winter, there is no reason for it to stop now.
Winter has been lingering long this year. It is March 27th and I could go ride the snowmobile on decent trails this afternoon. That is very unusual. At that point we haven’t lost any of our snow melt yet to early thawing. The two week forecast is for more of the same.
Right now my best guess is that we will have very good water levels from when the river opens up right into May, and a good chance of some really outstanding weekends.
I just saw on TV last night that they came out with the early summer long term forecast. It was for wetter than normal and warmer than normal. That sounds good to me.
Anyway, I have been watching the Peshtigo River for a really long time. This spring will be a great one for whitewater even in a worst case scenario.
Right now the biggest question in my mind is how soon the river will open up. There isn’t a lot of warm weather on tap over the next week or two. There are a couple of storms that could get it moving in the longer term, but it looks like a slow start right now.
Well that is my pre-season whitewater update. I will be back in a week or two once I wrap things up on the snowmobiling page.
RJB