Greetings and welcome!
Wow what a weekend! There were a lot of people around and they were doing all of the fun things that we do in summer up here. The weather smiled on us with only a few afternoon showers one day. The rest of the weekend was very nice for weather.
The gators were present in my travels last weekend. I told Chris that they must have had friends over for the holiday. Even with my Repel I still got a lump or two. There were also a lot of damsel flies, and some big moths too. A mayfly hatch started near the river Monday night, making them plentiful.
The whitewater rafting was outstanding, and a lot of people took to the river for the abnormally high water levels. It was a blast. There were epic boat emptying flips, crashes, and a few raft burials where they went so deep into the rapid that only a paddle or helmet was sticking up out of the water. The people loved it and it was fun to be around.
With people having a great time and doing crazy fun things I sold a few photo CDs, and that made me happy too. Monday night was kind of the last big party night and we were having fun at the Rapids. Later on I remembered that I had a tube of glow necklaces that I was going to sell earlier in the summer, and it was free double glow necklaces for everyone. We had a blast.
With the holiday falling on Tuesday we are going to do it again in three days. Looking at the TV it says that Saturday and Sunday should be nice and in the low 80s. The NWS version has us in the upper 70s and nice weather both days.
I am going to throw in a chance of a passing shower or storm Saturday night and again Sunday. There is a low pressure area up in Canada that could send a little unstable air our way as it moves toward us for Monday. Right now I wouldn’t put the chances over 20-30%, but the possibility of a passing shower or storm exists. The more significant rain comes Monday afternoon. As long as the timing stays the same we are golden for the weekend. I will keep an eye on it.
We have some interesting weather ahead in the short term. We are expecting to get into the mid-80s today and upper 80s tomorrow. The atmosphere will be hot and juicy with humidity. There is a chance of storms later today and tonight again Thursday and Thursday night.
How this all goes down is a big question. If we have some storms tonight and tomorrow and it takes some of the energy out of the atmosphere we will do ok Thursday evening when the cold front comes through. If the storms in the meantime don’t take some of the pressure off and all of that heat and humidity is still here when the cold front comes through the possibility of severe weather is there.
What I am seeing in some prognostications is a bit of a powder keg for Thursday night if it lines up just right. The NWS hazardous weather outlook includes the wording “Severe thunderstorms with hail over 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts over 75 mph are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.”.
The SPC has us at an enhanced risk for severe weather Thursday and Thursday night. That puts us at a 3 out of 5 and you don’t ever want to see a 4 or 5. I keep saying that, so here is the scale..
3-ENH (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
Like I said, hopefully we never see a 4 or 5.
What has my attention is the potential CAPE values. I am seeing estimations in the 3,000j/kg range. The Bear Paw tornado happened on a day when they were around 2,000. I didn’t think that physics in tech school was much fun, but the physics behind a CAPE value like that is very impressive, and a little scary.
The really fun part is that all of that severe weather potential is based on a great big giant maybe. If the storms tonight and tomorrow take the pressure off, then we should do ok Thursday night. If not we should be weather aware.
Events-
This weekend we have the Athelstane VFD Picnic. I will try to get a snapshot of a sign.
Beyond that the only events that I have for this weekend for Marinette or Oconto Co is the water ski shows.
But– If we go to Forest County, there are a lot of happenings. Here is a link to the site with the various posters.
Wabeno Steam-Up Days is a cool event with all of the old tractors and machinery and hit n miss engines. I only made it once, but the equipment there was really nice.
Laona is having a VFD picnic and parade, and Pickerel is having their Family Fest.
Next weekend is the Lakewood Mardi Gras, and the weekend after is Hog Wrestling.
There is a Town of Silver Cliff special meeting coming up July 10th over the issue of allowing ATVs on Parkway Rd between the south town line and the Red Pine BP. This road is currently closed to ATVs after a landowner threatened to shut down a section of snowmobile trail if ATVs were allowed on the road. The couple of miles of road would be a tremendous benefit to riders in that area who would be able to get to the gas station and to the north trails to Athelstane, Goodman, and Dunbar.
The long weekend has me a little behind in my work, so it is time to run along. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Fun thought of the day.. Sure the early bird gets the worm, but it is the second mouse that gets the cheese. First isn’t always better.