April 12, 2018

Greetings and welcome!

Thursday afternoon

Here is a pinpoint prediction of new snow near my house over the next 5 days from the European model. That same model had Crivitz closer to two feet. The snow is expected to come a little at a time, with about a foot by Saturday night and the rest by Monday.

Something that will be a concern is the wind. The forecasts include wind gusts in the 30-40mph range. With some heavy snow on the trees and the soft ground from the frost coming out of it, there is a chance of some trees coming down. At that point I am not just getting the plow truck and firewood squared away, I am preparing for some time with the power out.

I am skeptical of this forecast. A lot of well advertised big storms don’t work out as expected. I said that last time and the 11″ of snow really came. Can we believe this one? I am not sure but the Boy Scout in me demands that I be prepared so I am off to go get ready.


PS- I just saw that the latest GFS model is backing off on the snow, and has us only in for about a foot.



Thursday am

I have been watching our weekend storm closely. The models have been very consistent with a strong storm slowly moving over the area between Friday and Sunday night or possibly into Monday.

The guidance that I use has been showing the potential for 2-4″.. of rainfall equivalent. Usually I use a 10-12″ to the inch of rain to convert that to snowfall. Because it will start as rain, turn to a mix and then snow I am inclined to use about an 8:1 ratio. That still puts us in for a tremendous storm.

Right now the NWS is being very reserved and is not starting to predict totals. This was on the morning news on WBAY Channel 2 out of Green Bay this morning. My guidance supports these total. Buckle up for this one!


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