June 10, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

By all accounts we could see a couple of inches of rain over the next 3 or 4 days. The HPC offered this impressive graphic this morning. It is the rainfall forecast from 6am Wed to 6am Monday, showing 2.5-3″.  (Time stamp is GMT, we are GMT -6 hours)

They also offer one with reduced totals, with them dialed back to 1.75-2″. Either way it looks like rain ahead.

Here are my various sources..

NAM model- Rain Friday &  Sunday, but not Saturday, 1.25-1.75″ total rain.

GFS model-1.0-1.25″ of rain Friday, Saturday only minor rain with 6 hour rainfall totals of 0.01-0.1″, rain Saturday night, Sunday no rain.

HPC- Rain Friday, Friday night and Saturday, clears out for Sunday, 2.5-3″ by Sunday 6am,  6am Sunday-6am Tuesday 0.1-0.25″ rain.

NWS- The NWS did not list precip forecasts, just percentages, 60% tonight, 90% Friday, 60% Friday night, 70% Saturday, 50% Saturday night, 30% Sunday.

So the NAM and GFS say we will have a decent Saturday, the NWS and HPC are going for Sunday. All agree that Friday will get wet with an inch or more of rain.

Looking through all of this I was reminded of some of the more hyped snow storms that never came. Southern storm, multiple ideas in the forecasts, and excitement about the possibility of precip all are familiar elements in the story. Sometimes it works out, often it ends up less that the excitement merited.

Both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are up. The Menom was struggling to hit 600cfs and is now running a foot and a half higher, at the mean flow for today, of 1,800cfs. That is a bet for rafting.

The Peshtigo is up from a rocky 120cfs to a very runnable 214. That brought it from below -6 to about -1 or -2.  In my opinion anything over 200 or -2 is great on the Pesh, and more is better. By my prediction we will see it rise a bit yet, and yes, well above zero for the weekend, unless we get skunked Friday.

I believe that will rise more this week from Tuesday’s rain in the far reaches of the watershed, but the 100 year drought things throws a new dynamic into it. It is not clear yet if it will just suck into the dry swamps or come down the river for us to play in. We should know tomorrow.

Either way both rivers are good to go for paddling this weekend, and heavy rains Friday should boost them more.

The whitewater rivers are not the only beneficiaries of our recent rain. The Menominee River is up a foot and a half in some flat water ares. Area lakes should rise as well, and the green world is very happy about the rain. I am not sure how long it will take to perc down into wells, but it has to help those too.

Late yesterday afternoon I went for a get out of the house ride. On the way to the gas station there was a double rainbow as the emerging sun passed through the last of the rain off to our east. It was big and vivid, a real dandy rainbow.

Sunset over the flowage was spectacular as the last clouds masked and reflected the sun’s last rays in amazing ways. I was somewhere between really relaxed and doing back flips over forgetting the camera between the sunset and the rainbow.

As dusk came I headed over to a secret spot in the Nicolet to watch and listen to the night come. The tree frogs were out in force with choruses that responded like waves. The whippoorwills were out in force in quite a few spots, and most insistent with their calls. On the way there and back I must have swerved the truck at least 10 times to dodge the woodcocks in the road.

On the way out I spotted a really big owl, with a wingspan of about half or two  thirds of mine. I didn’t get a real good look, but it was big and flew like an owl on the hunt, swooping down out of a tree and gliding after some unseen prey.

It was a good night and crawling back into the woods and being quiet came with many rewards.

In events this weekend..

I will update again tomorrow. I think things will be a little clearer then with the weather.

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!

RJB