Greetings and welcome!
One quick final update..
It looks like the severe stuff should stay mostly south of us today and tonight. Checking the RUC model, it is showing less and less of a storm threat for us tonight with lower CAPE and helicity numbers than before. The threat level rises as you go south of Green Bay, and south of the IL/WI border, wow.
At the moment not much is going on here. It is a hot humid day with some high clouds. There were a few stray showers in western WI this afternoon, but nothing closer than about Wausau. The focus of the storm seems to be from about mid-state south, and still in western WI.
It is my guess that things will pick up late afternoon between about 4pm and sunset. That would be our highest risk window. Behind that the TV forecast animation only shows stray showers after 10pm, and clearing skies by midnight. There is a line of clouds on the satellite showing that we could still see a line of storms later this afternoon and early evening.
I am not saying that we are off of the hook, but the severe weather chances and rain chances look less ominous than they did yesterday.
It looks like my Peshtigo River prediction might fall an inch short. Kosir’s is reporting a +4″ level right now, I predicted +6″ for tomorrow noon. I needed an inch bump up from Tuesday’s rain and only saw 0.3″ so far. The other inch coming from the storm could very well still come. It doesn’t really matter, the rivers are both big fun this weekend at current levels. The late week 2″ boost was just a bonus. It could still come.
Have a good weekend!
RJB