Greetings and welcome!
Saturday morning 5am
The weather outlook has improved significantly. The storm last night faded after sunset and brought tenths of an inch of rain rather than inches. Right now the radar looks clear all of the way back to South Dakota.
The forecast models have backed off on precip chances over the weekend. The HPC and NAM now show us dry for the next 60 hours. The GFS leaves us in the 0.01-0.1″ band.
The atmosphere is still humid, and we are expecting a warm day. I’d be inclined to leave a chance of a typical summer shower or storm brewing up Saturday afternoon and night.
There is no organized system, but the ingredients are there with the heat and humidity. Watch the clouds. If they start building big high tops, pay attention.
Sunday looks very nice, with lower temps and humidity.
I wouldn’t sit out the weekend for the weather forecast. There are a lot of great events, and I expect that they will have a good day for it.
RJB
Friday Morning
I had a few additions to post and I didn’t want to push Wednesday’s event calendar into the abyss, so I am updating Thursday’s post.
Item one- Crivitz.. Apparently the new stoplight in Crivitz is temporary. It is to help people take the detour while they do construction on Hwy A where it goes through town. They zig-zag you through town and get you where you need to go.
Personally unless I have business on the west side of Crivitz, I keep going north to Hwy X or Moonshine Hill Rd, and then go west to A missing the whole construction mess.
Item two.. I saw a poster in a bar about adult full contact downhill big wheel races this weekend somewhere called Blueberry Hill. I can only imagine how that one got started.. but it certainly sounds entertaining.
Item three-weather..
The rain came early today, and started up about 9am. It is a little ahead of schedule, but unfortunately not the only wave. There are still a variety of opinions on how the weekend will go.
The NAM is showing a lot of rain tonight a little northwest of here, several inches. We are in the periphery of the heavy stuff on that model, and if it plays out it will be a wet night. They have backed off a little on the Saturday night rain, showing us in the 0.01-0.1″ band instead of inches of rain.
The GFS leaves us in the lowest band for rain through Saturday after showing a wet night tonight. Tonight’s QPF from the GFS is less than an inch.
The HPC is showing 1-1.25″ tonight and then we are in the 0.01-0.1″ band for Saturday.
The NWS keeps a chance of rain in the forecast throuugh Saturday night. Their chances are at 70% today, 90% tonight, 50% Saturday, and 30% Saturday night.
My opinion? Rain tonight, clearing out late morning. With that rain is a cold front, and it should stabilize the atmosphere for Saturday. I would leave a chance of rain redeveloping Saturday late day or Saturday night in the forecast, and a nice Sunday.
It would be nice if the system cleared out ahead of schedule. Behind it we get to trade hot and tropical weather for low humidity and temps in the 70s and 80s.
Have a good weekend and thanks for visiting!
RJB
Thursday
Update time already? It seems like I just did that yesterday..
The first order of business is the weather. It is hot and humid today with the heat index in the upper 90s. I can tell you first hand that it is a warm one. The dew points are in the 70s, representing tropical humidity.
We have more of that on tap for the next few days. Friday we are looking at another warm and humid day with temps in the upper 80s or into the 90s. There is a chance of a thunderstorm later in the day.
The chances for T-storms or showers goes up for Friday night into Saturday morning. With a lot of humidity there is plenty of water available to fall as rain. The QPF for Friday night’s storm looks to be in the 1-1.75″ range, but exactly where that will fall remains a question.
The majority of the forecasts and models move the showers clearing out Saturday morning and leaving the weekend clear. Saturday is still expected to be a little humid and in the 80s, Sunday looks a little cooler.
The outlier in the forecasts is the usually somewhat reserved NAM model. The NAM is bringing another set of showers and storms across the state Saturday night, and again, totals possible over an inch. The concensus isn’t going that way, but it is a possibility.
We have a lot of area events coming up this weekend. The top of the list starts with the Silver Cliff Parade & Picnic. The parade starts at 10am at Boat Landing 11 Road & Hwy C and goes east on C to the picnic grounds. The picnic runs from 11-6.
Next up is the tug of war across the Peshtigo River between Dockside Bar and the Peshtigo River Resort. That was a fun one last year, and yes some people got wet.
A little farther down the road is the Jumpin Jimmy’s Car Show at the Curve Inn and Resort. Last year attendance was down a little and they still had almost 100 really nice cars. They also raffle off a lot of Craftsman tools and a new washer & dryer set. Add in a burnout pit, food, and music, and it is a pretty big show.
A little west of there in Crooked Lake they are having their 2nd annual Family Fun Fest at the Crooked Lake Sportsman’s Grounds. They have free corn, plus brats, booyah, beer, kids games, and live music.
There are more events, check yesterday’s report for the full list.
Whitewater rafting should be good this weekend. We are still riding the wave from last weekend’s heavy rain. The Peshtigo is normally about 178cfs today, and is currently running 338cfs. Yee-Ha. Likewise the Menominee River is usually at about 1,220CFS, ant it is peaking between 1,210 and 2,100cfs. Again, great water for August.
The higher water also made tubing more fun, and the waterfalls should be better than usual too.
I don’t know what to tell you about the gators. One day I was getting chewed up, the last two days I have not even used Repel. I guess like anything else around here, be ready for anything.
In the maybe maybe not department.. the Perseid Meteor shower peaks tonight. The best viewing should be after about 10pm when the moon sets and darkens the skies. The maybe maybe not part comes with the could cover and haze. There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, so we could get clouds or fog, or maybe a good show. Those same clouds and moisture might make a nice sunset tonight too.
Well, I am off to go and fill up another day.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB