Greetings and welcome!
We have some weather to talk about. The storm for tonight and tomorrow looks like it will bring heavy rain to far northern WI and the UP.
How much? Opinions vary, but the range of 2-4+ inches has been shown consistently in the various models and forecasts.
The HPC QPF is between 2.5 and 3″, with the 3-4″ line pretty much cutting our area in half. Generally those guys aren’t too excitable, so it has my attention. The NAM model is showing a fair bit of rain too.
The GFS model, which sometimes get caught with convective feedback and overstates rainfall estimates, is the most reserved today. It is only showing us in the 1.5-2″ range.
The NWS is looking for 2-4″ of rain and has issued a flood watch.
The overall consensus is that it is going to rain a lot between tonight and Friday.
The area rivers are already running at record highs. The Peshtigo is running 489CFS, breaking the ’02 record of 376cfs. The Menominee River is running at 2,960cfs, breaking the ’97 record of 2,330cfs. Both rivers are on the way down at the moment, with the Pesh peaking at 700cfs last weekend, while the Menominee went just over 5,000cfs.
With the high rivers, soggy ground, and lots of rain on the way, the flood watch is appropriate. The Peshtigo is wild enough that it isn’t much of a threat. The Menominee River could be a different story. Their watershed looks to take the brunt of the storm, and the reservoirs are pretty full. Batten down the hatches Slug.
I guess a paddler’s alert is in order for the whitewater folks too. The rivers stand to get higher than they have been all year this weekend and into next week. If the rain comes as expected, the Pesh could easily exceed +12, and the Menominee well over 5,000cfs.
This is all based on a forecast, and those don’t always work out. Right now we have pretty good agreement from our guidance sources that it will rain a lot. I am a little skeptical of the high totals, just as I would be if this same storm were 3 months from now carrying 2-4 feet of snow. It does merit a heads up though.
At the moment there is pretty good agreement that the storm will time out well for the weekend, with the rain clearing out late Friday and the follow up storm not expected here until Sunday afternoon.
That is about it from here. I am off to enjoy our nice day, and maybe locate the old water wings.
Have a good Wednesday and thank you for visiting!
RJB