Greetings and welcome!
It is another spectacular spring day outside. Our high of 59 is now 64 and rising, and our cloudy day with isolated showers is really a spectacular sunny day.
The new critter of the day yesterday was a flock of turkeys. They seem to like this area in spring, and they are back. I will see what else there is too see soon when I bail on work and go to stretch my legs a little.
We are looking at a nice week ahead right up to the weekend. From about Saturday on there will be a storm affecting the region.
Earlier model runs were showing us getting as much as 4-8 Sunday, but the in the midnight run they have pushed the snow part of the storm south. Our friends along the state line would enjoy similar totals if it held up, with us getting a little less, maybe 3-6.
The 6am model run looks very different. That one is not showing much rain for us. That shows snow starting Saturday morning and going until late Sunday night. The path of the low would be a bull’s eye for putting us in a lot of snow. The QPF on the storm is conservatively in the 1-1.75″ range with 1/4″ more possible. That is rainfall equivalent. Use about a 12:1 to figure snow depth.
It is just a forecast, and it will change again. Six hours ago it was a 2-4 maybe 3-6 event with some rain in the front. No I don’t believe that we are in for 12-18″ of snow, maybe going to 15-20. It is just what it shows now.
The GFS in particular is prone to convective feedback and overstating storms in general. At that point until it gets closer, shows some consistency, and is verifiable with other models, it is for entertainment only. I do expect some precip for the weekend, and it might get interesting. At the moment I am eying any dramatic totals with skepticism.
The one constant in the models is us getting some wind behind the storm.
The events for the weekend have not changed. We have the poker run with the Firelane Bar and the chicken dinner with the Stephenson VFD, both on Saturday.
Well I am off to get back to work so that I can escape before sunset and enjoy a little of the nice day.
Have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!
RJB