Greetings and welcome!
It looks like we have some severe weather headed our way for Monday night-Wednesday.
Forecast models are showing an unusually powerful storm headed our way early this week. The storm is expected to form in the southwest, pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture and energy, and track north over Minnesota into some pretty cold air.
The storm is consistent across the GFS, NAM, and HPC forecasts as being unusually strong. A typical storm around these parts has a central pressure from about 988-992MB on the strong side and weaker ones in the 998 range. This one is showing peak central pressures as low as 960 and 964 across all of the sources. Going into the 970s is a big storm for us, 960s is pretty significant.
The end result will be some rain, a lot of strong winds, a chance of thunderstorms, and I will go out on a limb and say a snowy finish.
The fun should start about Monday night with some rain and a little wind. The first precipitation shield could bring decent rains and thunderstorms. As the storm moves closer it is shown strengthening dramatically. We should see the winds pick up and more rain as the low passes to the NW of us.
The pressure gradient on the storm is showing as being very dramatic. Late Tuesday night at the GFS s showing a central pressure of 960MB over International Falls and a 988Mb here. That is pretty significant.
The NWS has issued a high wind watch. Reading through it they are looking at a possibility of 40mph sustained winds gusting to 55mph. Their forecast is somewhat more reserved than that, with winds Tuesday 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 50 mph.
The after Packers weather guy just was talking about the storm saying that the central pressure on the storm was close to that of a cat 3 hurricane. He said that because of friction from surface features the winds didn’t get quite as high. His wind gusts were showing max peaks in the 50-60mph range.
To make things extra interesting, we just had a decent storm come through with about 1.3″ of rain. That will make the ground soggy and trees easier to tip. In our favor, most of the leaves are down.
This isn’t the end of days, it is just a very strong fall storm. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the power go out and a few trees down. Travel probably won’t be much fun between the wind and rain.
And…
Behind the storm we should see much colder air. With the back of the storm bringing unsettled weather, some wind driven snow is not out of the question. So far I am alone in that forecast, but the upper layers look cold enough and there is precip possible.
I will be spending some of today getting ready. There are tarps to secure, stuff to button down, I’ll have the generator gassed up and running, and a sharp chain and supplies for the chain saw. My new trick is to freeze a few gallons of drinking water, which does double duty as ice blocks in the fridge and freezer if the power goes out. I will draw a 6 gallon jug or two for the flush, and bring in a rack of firewood. Going into the potential of a day or two without power with a fresh shower and laundry done seems like a good idea. I will hit the gas station and do some grocery shopping too.
When it turns out not to be so bad, I still will be way ahead by doing the week’s errands on the nicest day of the week. If it ends up nasty, I’ll be ready.
As always I will report on the storm as it is in progress. As long as the cell towers stay up, I can update with the generator if the power goes out. I will also check on people’s places if I think it is warranted.
The skeptic in me has a hard time believing that it will end up as dramatic as it sounds, but it could. Virtually all of my sources are on board with the same scenario.
It really raised my eyebrows when I saw central pressures in the 960s. Surely it had to be a fluke. Then the TV weather guy said that it was close to as deep as a cat 3 hurricane, and maybe I’m not just being excitable again.
Whatever the case, you should be aware of the possibility of some big weather. I will be on it with updates.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB