Greetings and welcome!
It was almost a great winter for snowmobiling, but not quite. Every time we would get ahead on snow and get good trails a big thaw would come and melt it down. We got about half of the season in.
It looks like today is the first full day of Spring. The Spring Equinox was yesterday at 6:21pm. I doesn’t look like spring, there is snow on the ground and a winter storm watch in effect.
The snow and rain yesterday brought mixed results. Around here I had almost 2″ of sloppy wet snow. As I headed east on C, the amount of snow fell dramatically crossing the Silver Cliff/Athelstane line at Tower Rd,. Where it did snow it was very slippery and a couple of cars found the ditch.
On the way back from getting gas in Athelstane yesterday I took the back roads, IE Eagle River Rd. Initially the road was pretty good. Again as I crossed Tower Rd the snow increased, and soon I was in 4 wheel drive battling the wet heavy slushy snow.
We got a break from the mud from the frost coming out of the ground yesterday when it got colder outside. When the temps were in the 50s a lot of roads and driveways were getting muddy. It was not uncommon to go 6″ deep in the usual spots in the driveway.
For that same reason the road bans are in effect and the snowmobile/ATV trails have closed. The road bans are weight limits that put heavy trucks off of side rods for a month or so while the road base is soft. The Marinette County snowmobile and ATV trails closed as of today. The road bans stay in effect until the towns decide otherwise. Usually the ATV trails reopen the first weekend in May, but it can vary depending on conditions.
Spring rafting at Kosir’s starts in just under 2 weeks. It should be a lot better than last year. Last year we had a rude drought that kept the rains away and had the rivers breaking 93 year record lows.
In late June the storms came, and it rained and rained. Late summer rafting was great, and we even had the river running at +20 in September. When the river froze up it was running at about +6 or +8, indicating that the wetlands and spring creeks that feed it are replenished and flowing good. It is running about +5 right now under the ice.
That bodes well for spring rafting. We would like to see a lot more snow to melt, but we are doing OK in that department too. The Rhinelander NWS shows us at 2.61″ of rainfall equivelent since Jan 1, 0.43″ behind the normal of 3.04″. Between being pretty close to normal for rainfall, the river running good already, and the big storms expected to hit between now and April, I have a pretty positive outlook on the pending rafting season.
If we actually get some rain and snow it should be a great season. The base flow is up, the swamps are full, and the Peshtigo isn’t breaking up early. A Spring storm or two should set it off pretty good.
Speaking of spring storms.. We are under a Winter Storm Watch. The NWS is watching a storm that they say has the potential to bring 8-16″ of wet heavy snow between Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon.
The NAM model is showing us in the 1-1.25″ band for rainfall equivalent, and the GFS is in pretty good agreement. The HPC has a different tale to tell, it is showing us on the line between 1.25-1.5″ and 1.5-1.75″. The just-aired noon news showed us in the 15-20″ band for snow.
Normally I would use about a 12:1 ratio for rain to snow conversion. On this storm the rain/snow line will probably be close, so I would go with an 8 or 10:1 ratio, and probably deduct 20-25% for the stuff that falls as rain or a mix. Using the middle figure of 1.5″ and a 10:1, we are at 15″, and if we deduct 25% for rain, we are looking at a Ray guess of 11.25″ of wet heavy snow.
My rule on storms is I don’t believe it until I can roll in it. Right now all of my model guidance is in good agreement that it will happen and be big.
Here is the winter storm watch..
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WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074-212100- /O.CON.KGRB.WS.A.0003.110322T1800Z-110324T0000Z/ VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE- MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON... TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...CRIVITZ 1049 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * ALTHOUGH SNOW COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SHOULD FALL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED. * THE SNOW COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WET AND HEAVY AND DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL AND PLOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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With the wet heavy snow and possible freezing rain I am going to take some steps today to get ready for the storm. The wet snow from spring storms like this gets sticky and I have seen it accumulate on tree branches and power lines taking them down. At that point I will be getting a gallon or two of generator gas in case the power goes out.
I am still undecided about putting the snowplow onto the truck. If it actually snows, it might stay around a while. Behind the storm we are looking at highs around 30 and lows around 10 right through the weekend. If it looks like a big snowstorm still tomorrow afternoon, I will get it ready.
However it turns out, it looks like a messy week with colder than normal temperatures. Spring can get interesting in Northern Wisconsin, and here we go. I will update on the storm as it unfolds.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB