Greetings and welcome!
It has been a wet week as expected. Most of the area has seen about 2″ of rain, some local totals will go higher. Yesterday when I was out and about there were some pretty good sized puddles in low spots.
There was also hail snow. Hail snow? Yesterday’s hail added up, and as the continuing rain moved it around, it gathered up in spots and made piles. Driving by it looked like the last patches of snow in ditches, along roads and along buildings. I was thinking, hey wait a minute, those snow piles all went away weeks ago. It was hail gathered up. Most of it was marble or jumbo marble sized, so bunched up it survived for a while.
Hail in itself is a bit of a marvel. When there is enough of a cold updraft in the storm to recirculate and hold up the rain drops turned ice pellets so long that they don’t fall until they are that big across, that is a serious updraft and a strong storm. Thankfully it was not severe other than the hail.
We are not quite done with the rain yet, but the weekend looks promising. We still have some waves of rain expected later today, tonight, and into Friday. The very latest from the NAM model has the rain clearing out late Friday afternoon and not much for the weekend.
The GFS is still showing us with a chance of rain Friday and Saturday, but we are in the lowest band for accumulation, 0.01-0.1″ per 6 hour time frame. That still isn’t bad.
The HPC and NWS are a little less optimistic. The HPC QPF is still showing us in the 0.5-0.75″ band for 6am Saturday to 6am Sunday. The good news is that the forecast is two model runs old and more recent models have been pushing the rain out sooner. The NWS is holding on their 40% chance of of rain showers Friday night and 50% Saturday.
The bone of contention is a little blob of rain showing up on the backside of the storm as high pressure overtakes the area from the northwest. It is not unreasonable to expect a little scattered stuff out of it, but the back of the storm is always hard to predict. Often times the cooler dry air mixes in and stabilizes the atmosphere, but sometimes it brings one last splash to the storm.
I am going to lean toward the dry side and predict minimal showers for Saturday but leave a chance in the forecast. I’d put it at 30-40% with chances decreasing as the day progresses. If the models continue to trend toward an early finish for the rain, 30-40% might be high.
The best that I can tell the area saw about 2″ of rain or more. My bucket, the USGS gauge by Kosir’s, and Athelstane Weather all measured about 2″. There are areas less than 10 miles from here that saw that much just out of yesterday morning’s storm with the hail, and I have seen another inch and a half since then. Radar returns are showing a 2-4″ range, and that is pretty reasonable. There isn’t much question that the ground will be a little soggy this weekend and there might be a little mud.
The rain will be a huge boost for the Peshtigo River and the whitewater rafting and paddling that goes on there. The initial rise in the river has taken it from about +7 to over +12, but remember that the long narrow watershed puts a 2-3 day fuse on the river. I’d expect it to level off today a little and then get a boost for Friday and the weekend. My best guess is that it will be at a pushy 16-18 for Saturday’s noon rafting trip. It could even be a little higher. This is going to be an epic weekend for whitewater on the Peshtigo River.
Last year the Pesh was running a dreadful 202cfs, today it is at 859 and I’d expect to see numbers in the 1,000-1,200+ range for the weekend.
In the early days of my time rafting at Kosir’s I noticed that some trips at a certain level brought a lot pushier river that others. Both trips measured +6″, but one was a lot more exciting. Looking closer, I figured out that a rising river is a lot pushier than a falling river. The waves and holes were bigger even though the water level was the same.
Also figuring into this was how fast the river was coming up. In a case like we have here with a lot of water hitting the river at once, it was rising quickly and had a lot more pressure to it. Again it all got a little bigger. All of that is lining up to make it a great weekend for rafting. Can you tell I’m a little excited about it?
Kosir’s had planned on opening up the rafting trips on the Menominee River this weekend. According to their Facebook page this morning, that is off. The Menom gets too nuts to raft over about 5,000cfs. It hit that mark already this morning. That watershed shared in the bounty, and with almost 2,500 square miles of heavy rain draining off, it probably will not be runnable for the weekend.
The green explosion is upon us. The land is loosing it’s drab brown and gray and trading it in for a brilliant new green growth. We are running late this year because of the weather, but now it is moving really fast. Every day brings many new plants sprouting, trees budding, and a new bug or two as well. My back field has changed significantly in the last two days. The delayed start and all of this rain should really set it off next week.
Fishermen and women reported mixed results for openeing weekend last weekend. The weather wasn’t really in their favor, and it was the low point in the solunar cycle. This weekend should be a little better. The high pressure behind the storm isn’t usually favorable, but the rain washing food into the rivers and lakes is. Next Tuesday is the full moon, putting the weekend into prime time for the solunar tables.
ATV riders will have NO problem with dust this weekend. You might want to trade in the bandanna for rain gear though. There will be plenty of mud and some huge puddles. Can I get a YEEE HA! ?
Campers will want to bring a tarp for the ground and maybe the rain fly for Friday night. Also be ready for some chilly nights. The NWS is looking for lows around 40 Friday night and in the mid-30s Saturday night. Sunday night and Monday night we are looking at low 30s.
Saturday should bring an overcast day with some wind (NE10-20mph) and highs in the low to mid-50s. Sunday should bring a few less clouds, still some wind, and again mid-50s.
It won’t be a bluebird sunny and 75 weekend, but if you are ready for it, it’s not as bad as it sounds.
That is about it for me, so I am going to bluebird on out of here and jump into what looks like another full day in the Northwoods. I will be back tomorrow if the weather outlook changes significantly, otherwise have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB