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Friday May 27th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

The holiday weekend is finally here. Hopefully it is a fun and safe one for everyone, and don’t forget why it is a holiday.

The weather outlook for the weekend looks like most of it will be dry, but there is a chance for occasional rain. The timing of it remains a bit of a question mark. The forecast models are the most useful when they agree on a scenario. That isn’t happening at all. The elements for rain will be in place in the region, tracking down when and where is the challenge.

We are not expecting a lot of rain. The two best chances are Friday night and now Sunday night. The part that has my attention is the rainfall amount. The models and forecasts all have us for 1/2″ of rain or less total for the whole weekend from Friday night to Monday. The new NAM is even lower.

I like the NWS approach where they have rain chances at 60% tonight and 40% for the rest of the weekend because the chances will be there and the timing isn’t clear cut. It seems a little dark in the aspect of someone skimming the surface and thinking that it is going to rain for 4 days straight. It just isn’t like that.

If you look at the very latest NAM model and click on the various time frames under  ‘850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn’, you will see that there are a lot of 6 hour frames with no precip or where we are in the 0.01-0.1 band. Hopefully it works out like that and we have  a great weekend.

It did get a little cold last night. We were down to 28. Thankfully the weekend lows will be in the 40s tonight and 50s the rest of the weekend. Highs sould be in the 65-70 range Saturday and Sunday, and upper 70s Monday. That will come along with some humidity and a better chance of storms as a bigger Monday-Tuesday storm system approaches.

Other than that not much has changed. The rivers are still running at excellent levels and we are going to have a great time at Kosir’s. I did forget to mention that they will have a DJ and the Piano Man Bob Heckler there over the weekend, so the nights will be fun too.

Other than that have a fun and safe weekend, and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday May 26th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

Today’s to do list.. fix truck, fix lawn mower, cut grass, bring in firewood. Firewood? Yep. We could see a hard freeze tonight as temperatures could go into the 20s. We are expecting a widespread frost and possible hard freeze in some spots. At least it is happening now and not over the weekend.

A task much harder than my to-do list is figuring out a forecast for the weekend. Looking at the model guidance and various forecasts there are several scenarios, and not a lot of guidance at all. The best guess right now is that we will see some rain overnight Friday night and early Saturday. It should dry out as the morning progresses. That much the models agree on.

The NAM model keeps us in the neighborhood of some rain, but dry the rest of the weekend. ( BUY BUY BUY!) The GFS is showing another round of showers possible again Saturday night and early Sunday morning, and a minor chance Monday too. Both models agree on a mostly dry Saturday and Sunday days.

The NWS puts rain chances in the forecast pretty much the whole weekend as they are not sure how far a warm front will track north or if it will track back or keep going. As I mentioned before, the forecast models are offering a variety of ideas.

My best guess is that we will see the best chances for rain Friday night and early Saturday am, and then a pretty decent weekend.  Saturday and Sunday should be ok. Monday’s forecast gets more interesting since there will be warm humid air coming from the south in advance of a big storm for Tuesday. That will probably bring some instability and maybe one of those summer afternoon showers or storms. The rain for Saturday night is a 50-50 chance.

Unless something changes a lot, the weekend will hardly be a washout or a steady rain.  Most of the models area showing rain totals for the whole weekend under 1/4″ and the worst is up to the 0.25-0.5″ band. The focus of most of that precip is overnight Friday night.

As far as temperatures look for mid 60s Friday-Sunday and mid-70s Monday. Lows should be in the mid-40s Friday night and then the mid to upper 50s the rest of the weekend.

The next item up is gas prices. If you haven’t filled up the tank, you probably should. Prices here and in Crivitz were at ~$3.85 yesterday, but we can expect it to go up  little. The excuse this year is a minor refinery problem in IL tightening regional supplies, so it will cost an extra dime. At the same time the NYMEX is up a dime in the past two days.  The deal of the day yesterday was in Athelstane where I paid $4.04 for no ethanol premium 93, down from $4.29 a week before. Anyway, between the Nymex and the holiday weekend premium, expect prices to nudge up a dime or two.

People coming to play in the whitewater rivers this weekend will have a great time. The water levels on both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are above normal and the best in several years. The wet weather from last fall and again this spring have the wetland areas and the aquifers well charged with water. We won’t be seeing rocky rivers anytime soon, the base flow alone will be enough to keep it fun for weeks.

For this weekend I’d look for the Peshtigo to be running in the +6 or +7 range. It is dropping from the rise caused by last weekend’s rain, but right now it is at about a +10″, and running a little over 700FCS. The median flow for today is about 375.Whatever the case, it should be a really fun weekend for paddlers of the Peshtigo.

The Menominee River shared in the rain bounty this spring, and it too is running above normal levels. I’d look for that in the 2-3,000cfs range, a really fun level for the runs through Peir’s Gorge. Chicago Mike over on the Kosir’s blog is suggesting a Two Rivers Special this weekend, and that is a heck of a good idea. You might want to call ahead to get the best trip times. With the good water levels Kosir’s will be the place to be this weekend.

As I am proofing this I realize that I forgot to mention that Kosir’s is starting with the flat water tubing and sit on top kayak rentals this weekend. The tubing starts right at Kosir’s and goes downriver on the flat water stretch and riffles. The sit on top kayaks are fun for anyone, you go and paddle the wild and beautiful Caldron Falls Flowage. We have done both a few times and had a great time.

Cabin owners will probably want to plan some time for cutting grass over the weekend. It is time. I have been so busy that I haven’t done mine yet and it it getting pretty shaggy.

The spring unfolding is in it’s glory. A lot of the trees have delicate new leaves, and there is something blooming almost everywhere you look. New this week the ferns are starting to come in, and the oak trees are getting into the act. Don’t forget the Repel. The usual players are present, the tick, gators and the gnats. While none are overwhelming they are present. I am kind of surprised that we don’t have more gators (mosquitoes) after the wet spring. Give it time.

As far as events I will refer you back to Tuesday’s list, I have not come across any new ones.

I would expect decent fishing this weekend. With the storms around the region we will not be suffering from the usual cold front lockdown, but rather the changing barometer should be in our favor. Next Wednesday is a new moon, and Monday is a peak day preceding it. Saturday and Sunday should be good too, with afternoon majors between 2-4pm. Solunar table Link.

Northbound travelers will encounter some construction zones, but the DOT has opened as many lanes as possible. People can expect construction zones near the IL state line on 94, and near the airport in MKE.

1. I-94 from Russell Road to the Wisconsin state line, 1 mile. Lane reductions due to construction.
2. I-43/I-894 between Loomis Road and I-43/I-894/I-94 Mitchell Interchange, 1.6 miles and I-94 between College and Howard avenues, 4 miles. The ramp from I-894 eastbound to I-43/I-94 northbound is closed with a detour via Loomis Road and Howard Avenue. Lane restrictions along I-94 between the Mitchell Interchange and College Avenue, both directions.

Taking 43 north there is construction around Sheboygan and Oostburg..

6. I-43 at Oostburg, 2.5 miles and at Sheboygan, 4 miles. Traffic will be limited to one lane in each direction at Oostburg and at Sheboygan.

If you take 45 north look for zones between Oshkosh & Neenah, and again in Green Bay..

8. US 41 from one mile south of WIS 26 to Breezewood Lane, 16 miles. Construction requires 11-foot width restriction and has narrowed shoulders.  Interchanges at 9th Avenue, US 45, and Breezewood Avenue are closed. Detours are posted. Expect delays during peak travel periods.

9. US 41 at the Scheuring Road Interchange at Green Bay, 1 mile. The interchange is closed for reconstruction.

Here is the map in PDF form..

http://www.dot.wisconsin.gov/news/docs/memorialday2011.pdf

and the page that goes with it..

http://www.dot.wisconsin.gov/opencms/export/nr/modules/news/news_2708.html_786229440.html

That is about it from here. Have fun, be safe, and have a great weekend!

RJB

Tuesday May 24th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

Sorry that I am late again, it is a busy time of year for me. We have a big weekend coming up and it holds a lot of promise.

The weather is a big concern, and it wouldn’t be a holiday weekend without a chance of rain. This time it doesn’t look too bad. It is a smaller storm and it is focused on Friday night and early Saturday. There is a chance of showers into Saturday night. None of it looks as steady as the 1.5″ of rain last weekend.

Temperatures look ok, with Friday and Saturday in the low 60s and Sunday and Monday in the 70s. Look for lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

The world aroud me is just going off with new growth. The grass is now out of hand.  A lot of the underbrush is filling in, and most trees have leaves. The bare spots and areas that you can see into the woods are fading fast.

A lot of stuff is blooming right now. The marsh marigolds are in their glory and the cherry trees are in bloom too. Areas that support trillium are littered with the white blooms all over the forest floor. There are a lot of small flowers coming out on the forest floor too.

The spring has not been lost on the bugs. I have had encounters with both ticks and mosquitoes in the pat few days, and actually used my Repel once. They are not abnormal, but they are present.

The rain last weekend boosted the whitewater rivers to above normal levels again. The Peshtigo is about at it’s peak with a +11″ reading right now. Based on recent history, I would expect it to still be in the +5 to+7 range for the weekend, great water levels for the holidays. It is a Goldilocks level, not too rocky, not big and scary, but instead just right.

We have a lot of events this weekend. When I was in Lakewood yesterday I saw posters for events in Lakewood, Mountain, Crooked Lake, and Silver Cliff, and all of the events were on Sunday. I also saw something about the Rustic Inn having a rummage sale either Saturday or Sunday morning. I will try to track that down. Let’s see what Chris has for us..

I think that is going to wrap it up for now. I will be back later in the week with more events and the latest forecast. In the meantime have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday May 19th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

It is another nice 70 degree day outside today, and it has been nice all week. There was a storm trying to back up our way from the east coast, but so far we haven’t seen any rain from it, only clouds.

Tomorrow doesn’t look quite as nice as it did, instead of partly cloudy it will be cloudy. We are still looking for temps around 70.

Saturday and the weekend haven’t changed much in the forecast. There will be a moderately weak storm in the neighborhood keeping a chance for rain in the forecast all weekend. The best chance of rain comes Saturday night when the NWS is expecting showers and storms and a 70% chance, up from the 50% for Saturday and Sunday. Look for temps around 70 and overnight lows in the 50s.

I don’t have any events on the calendar for this weekend, but next weekend there are quite a few.

This weekend will be really big around Kosir’s. There will be a lot of people headed our way to raft, and the rivers will be ready. This weekend is the opening weekend for the Menominee River, the big Class 3 & 4 stuff that they run up by the Michigan border.  Both the Peshtigo and Menom should be running above normal for water levels, with the Peshtigo’s guess at +4 to+6, and the Menominee over 3,000CFS.

It has been a busy week for me so I haven’t had much time outside. but it is obvious that the greening of the land is coming on strong now. Most of the trees have leaves emerging and it is now clearly time to cut the grass for the first time.

Gas prices are holding steady on the NYMEX. They bumped up slightly yesterday and then lost ground. They remain at 2.93, 50 cents off of the peak of 3.43 May 1st. That hasn’t filtered back to the pump price yet, the last that I saw, prices were hovering at about the $4 mark.  That is down less than half of what the market price is down, so there should be more downside to pump prices. Normally the spread between the NYMEX price and the pump price is about 65-75 cents, and we usually get hit for an extra 10-25 cents around Memorial Day.

That is about it from here. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB