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Tuesday March 22nd, 2011 11:51pm Update

Greetings and welcome!

11:51

THUNDERSNOW!!

11pm

WOW!

It is snowing harder than I have seen it snow in a long long time. It is really coming down and there is plenty of wind moving it around.

Looking at the radar this is an impressive storm. There is a lot of yellow and orange on the radar out in western WI and a good bit moving through the center of the state. As this crosses the rain snow line we are getting some seriously heavy snow.

The moisture root line of storms supporting the snow is huge and powerful, and has caused a good bit of severe weather already. Much of SE MN is under flood watches or warnings. As this feeds wave after powerful wave into the cold side of the storm it will really add up fast.

Right now the rain snow goes about from Green Bay to Wausau to the Twin Cities. Just north of that line they are just getting pounded with snow. Some of the heavier waves with yellow, orange and red on the radar have to be causing thunder snow.

One dynamic that was off in my predictions was the wet heavy snow. It is a little wet but it is not sloppy. At that point the inches of snow to inches of water shoots up, I am guessing to maybe 12 or 14:1. With the higher multiplier, the snow will indeed pile up.

With the really fast rate that the snow is falling and the strength of the wind blowing it around, travel has to be just about impossible.

As of 11:15 there are about 2″ down here.

 

10:15pm

It’s snowing now!

It was a long wait, but here we are. It has to be near blizzard conditions out there. We have less than 1/2″ of snow but it is coming pretty fast and flying sideways. Travel would not be fun right now.

5:15pm

The snow has been falling on radar since late morning. It has not been hitting the ground here yet. About 4 I drove through some that was just getting started on the east side of Silver Cliff. A look around outside finds a few flakes down but not many, and nothing falling.

The forecast for a lot of snow tonight still holds with the NWS and TV forecasters. The latest from the TV shows us in for about a foot on channel 2 and 14+ on Channel 11. Fourteen plus!? Yowza.

The NAM model would support that with us in the 1-1.25″ or 1.25-1.5″ band. The GFS is only showing us getting 0.5-0.75″, and the HPC has us in the 1-1.25″ band.

There is a heavy band crossing about the 3 states area where IA, MN and WI borders meet, and another one behind it. The closer one has thunderstorms, and the second line has tornado warnings in IA. Those are expected to come our way, as snow. That is where the heavy stuff was/is expected.

And now we wait. I will check back later.

RJB

 

Late Morning Update

Virtually every bit of guidance that I have says that we are going to get spanked pretty good by this snowstorm. The NWS is loking for 6-10 tonight and another 2-4 tomorrow, and they are warning that it looks like it will be 8-14″ of wet heavy snow. The TV is showing 7.6″ in Atigo, 12.1 around Crivitz and Marinette, and get this, 18″ up by Iron Mountain and northern Marinette Co.

As of 11am the radar shows it snowing here but the ground truth doesn’t match up. So far it is only snowing on radar. The atmosphere will saturate soon enough and the snow will make it to the ground eventually.

It looks pretty likely that it will get here since it is knocking on the door.  You might want to be ready to be not traveling for a day, and the heavy snow will likely take down branches and power lines. While I am not so sure about the 14 and 18″ numbers, power outages and ugly travel could still happen if we see 6-10 and high winds tonight.

More to follow…

RJB

 

3.21.2011 He’s Back!

Greetings and welcome!

It was almost a great winter for snowmobiling, but not quite. Every time we would get ahead on snow and get good trails a big thaw would come and melt it down. We got about half of the season in.

It looks like today is the first full day of Spring. The Spring Equinox was yesterday at 6:21pm. I doesn’t look like spring, there is snow on the ground and a winter storm watch in effect.

The snow and rain yesterday brought mixed results. Around here I had almost 2″ of sloppy wet snow. As I headed east on C,  the amount of snow fell dramatically crossing the Silver Cliff/Athelstane line at Tower Rd,. Where it did snow it was very slippery and a couple of cars found the ditch.

On the way back from getting gas in Athelstane yesterday I took the back roads, IE Eagle River Rd. Initially the road was pretty good. Again as I crossed Tower Rd the snow increased, and soon I was in 4 wheel drive battling the wet heavy slushy snow.

We got a break from the mud from the frost coming out of the ground yesterday when it got colder outside. When the temps were in the 50s a lot of roads and driveways were getting muddy. It was not uncommon to go 6″ deep in the usual spots in the driveway.

For that same reason the road bans are in effect and the snowmobile/ATV trails have closed. The road bans are weight limits that put heavy trucks off of side rods for a month or so while the road base is soft. The Marinette County  snowmobile and ATV trails closed as of today. The road bans stay in effect until the towns decide otherwise. Usually the ATV trails reopen the first weekend in May, but it can vary depending on conditions.

Spring rafting at Kosir’s starts in just under 2 weeks. It should be a lot better than last year. Last year we had a rude drought that kept the rains away and had the rivers breaking 93 year record lows.

In late June the storms came, and it rained and rained. Late summer rafting was great, and we even had the river running at +20 in September. When the river froze up it was running at about +6 or +8, indicating that the wetlands and spring creeks that feed it are replenished and flowing good. It is running about +5 right now under the ice.

That bodes well for spring rafting. We would like to see a lot more snow to melt, but we are doing OK in that department too. The Rhinelander NWS shows us at 2.61″ of rainfall equivelent since Jan 1, 0.43″ behind the normal of 3.04″. Between being pretty close to normal for rainfall, the river running good already,  and the big storms expected to hit between now and April, I have a pretty positive outlook on the pending rafting season.

If we actually get some rain and snow it should be a great season. The base flow is up, the swamps are full, and the Peshtigo isn’t breaking up early. A Spring storm or two should set it off pretty good.

Speaking of spring storms.. We are under a Winter Storm Watch. The NWS is watching a storm that they say has the potential to bring 8-16″ of wet heavy snow between Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon.

The NAM model is showing us in the 1-1.25″ band for rainfall equivalent, and the GFS is in pretty good agreement. The HPC has a different tale to tell, it is showing us on the line between 1.25-1.5″ and 1.5-1.75″. The just-aired noon news showed us in the 15-20″ band for snow.

Normally I would use about a 12:1 ratio for rain to snow conversion. On this storm the rain/snow line will probably be close, so I would go with an 8 or 10:1 ratio, and probably deduct 20-25% for the stuff that falls as rain or a mix. Using the middle figure of 1.5″ and a 10:1, we are at 15″, and if we deduct 25% for rain, we are looking at a Ray guess of 11.25″ of wet heavy snow.

My rule on storms is I don’t believe it until I can roll in it. Right now all of my model guidance is in good agreement that it will happen and be big.

Here is the winter storm watch..

##############

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-073-074-212100-
/O.CON.KGRB.WS.A.0003.110322T1800Z-110324T0000Z/
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...
TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...KESHENA...STURGEON BAY...CRIVITZ
1049 AM CDT MON MAR 21 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* ALTHOUGH SNOW COULD DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING...THE SIGNIFICANT
  SNOWS SHOULD FALL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

* A TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES IS EXPECTED.

* THE SNOW COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
  RESULT IN VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED
  TO BE WET AND HEAVY AND DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL AND PLOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THAT MAY
SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

 

##############

With the wet heavy snow and possible freezing rain I am going to take some steps today to get ready for the storm. The wet snow from spring storms like this gets sticky and I have seen it accumulate on tree branches and power lines taking them down. At that point I will be getting a gallon or two of generator gas in case the power goes out.

I am still undecided about putting the snowplow onto the truck. If it actually snows, it might stay around a while. Behind the storm we are looking at highs around 30 and lows around 10 right through the weekend. If it looks like a big snowstorm still tomorrow afternoon, I will get it ready.

However it turns out, it looks like a messy week with colder than normal temperatures. Spring can get interesting in Northern Wisconsin, and here we go. I will update on the storm as it unfolds.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

November 14th, 2010

Please join us over at the Big Snow Page. It is snowmobiling oriented, but I still do the standard weather and events. I will be back on this page in March in anticipation of the rafting season, and back with regular reports once the snowmobiling stops and the rafting starts.

Speaking of whitewater rafting, I am expecting a really good spring rafting season in 2011. We  have repeatedly had record river levels this fall, including the river going over 20″ in late Sept and over 450cfs again today.  The wetlands that feed the river are storing a lot of water. Unless we have a total drought winter and spring, we should have a great spring rafting season.

Thanks and have a good winter!
RJB