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Saturday August 13th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

Saturday morning 5am

The weather outlook has improved significantly. The storm last night faded after sunset and brought tenths of an inch of rain rather than inches. Right now the radar looks clear all of the way back to South Dakota.

The forecast models have backed off on precip chances over the weekend. The HPC and NAM now show us dry for the next 60 hours. The GFS leaves us in the 0.01-0.1″ band.

The atmosphere is still humid, and we are expecting a warm day. I’d be inclined to leave a chance of a typical summer shower or storm brewing up Saturday afternoon and night.

There is no organized system, but the ingredients are there with the heat and humidity. Watch the clouds. If they start building big high tops, pay attention.

Sunday looks very nice, with lower temps and humidity.

I wouldn’t sit out the weekend for the weather forecast. There are a lot of great events, and I expect that they will have a good day for it.

RJB

Friday Morning

I had a few additions to post and I didn’t want to push Wednesday’s event calendar into the abyss, so I am updating Thursday’s post.

Item one- Crivitz.. Apparently the new stoplight in Crivitz is temporary. It is to help people take the detour while they do construction on Hwy A where it goes through town. They zig-zag you through town and get you where you need to go.

Personally unless I have business on the west side of Crivitz, I keep going north to Hwy X or Moonshine Hill Rd, and then go west to A missing the whole construction mess.

Item two..  I saw a poster in a bar about adult full contact downhill big wheel races this weekend somewhere called Blueberry Hill. I can only imagine how that one got started.. but it certainly sounds entertaining.

Item three-weather..

The rain came early today, and started up about 9am. It is a little ahead of schedule, but unfortunately not the only wave. There are still a variety of opinions on how the weekend will go.

The NAM is showing a lot of rain tonight a little northwest of here, several inches. We are in the periphery of the heavy stuff on that model, and if it plays out it will be a wet night. They have backed off a little on the Saturday night rain, showing us in the 0.01-0.1″ band instead of inches of rain.

The GFS leaves us in the lowest band for rain through Saturday after showing a wet night tonight. Tonight’s QPF from the GFS is less than an inch.

The HPC is showing 1-1.25″ tonight and then we are in the 0.01-0.1″ band for Saturday.

The NWS keeps a chance of rain in the forecast throuugh Saturday night. Their chances are at 70% today, 90% tonight, 50% Saturday, and 30% Saturday night.

My opinion? Rain tonight, clearing out late morning. With that rain is a cold front, and it should stabilize the atmosphere for Saturday. I would leave a chance of rain redeveloping Saturday late day or Saturday night in the forecast, and a nice Sunday.

It would be nice if the system cleared out ahead of schedule. Behind it we get to trade hot and tropical weather for low humidity and temps in the 70s and 80s.

Have a good weekend and thanks for visiting!

RJB

Thursday

Update time already? It seems like I just did that yesterday..

The first order of business is the weather. It is hot and humid today with the heat index in the upper 90s. I can tell you first hand that it is a warm one. The dew points are in the 70s, representing tropical humidity.

We have more of that on tap for the next few days. Friday we are looking at another warm and humid day with temps in the upper 80s or into the 90s. There is a chance of a thunderstorm later in the day.

The chances for T-storms or showers goes up for Friday night into Saturday morning. With a lot of humidity there is plenty of water available to fall as rain. The QPF for Friday night’s storm looks to be in the 1-1.75″ range, but exactly where that will fall remains a question.

The majority of the forecasts and models move the showers clearing out Saturday morning and leaving the weekend clear. Saturday is still expected to be a little humid and in the 80s, Sunday looks a little cooler.

The outlier in the forecasts is the usually somewhat reserved NAM model. The NAM is bringing another set of showers and storms across the state Saturday night, and again, totals possible over an inch. The concensus isn’t going that way, but it is a possibility.

We have a lot of area events coming up this weekend. The top of the list starts with the Silver Cliff Parade & Picnic. The parade starts at 10am at Boat Landing 11 Road & Hwy C and goes east on C to the picnic grounds. The picnic runs from 11-6.

Next up is the tug of war across the Peshtigo River between Dockside Bar and the Peshtigo River Resort. That was a fun one last year, and yes some people got wet.

A little farther down the road is the Jumpin Jimmy’s Car Show at the Curve Inn and Resort. Last year attendance was down a little and they still had almost 100 really nice cars. They also raffle off a lot of Craftsman tools and a new washer & dryer set. Add in a burnout pit, food, and music, and it is a pretty big show.

A little west of there in Crooked Lake they are having their 2nd annual Family Fun Fest at the Crooked Lake Sportsman’s Grounds. They have free corn, plus brats, booyah, beer, kids games, and live music.

There are more events, check yesterday’s report for the full list.

Whitewater rafting should be good this weekend. We are still riding the wave from last weekend’s heavy rain. The Peshtigo is normally about 178cfs today, and is currently running 338cfs. Yee-Ha. Likewise the Menominee River is usually at about 1,220CFS, ant it is peaking between 1,210 and 2,100cfs. Again, great water for August.

The higher water also made tubing more fun, and the waterfalls should be better than usual too.

I don’t know what to tell you about the gators. One day I was getting chewed up, the last two days I have not even used Repel. I guess like anything else around here, be ready for anything.

In the maybe maybe not department.. the Perseid Meteor shower peaks tonight. The best viewing should be after about 10pm when the moon sets and darkens the skies. The maybe maybe not part comes with the could cover and haze. There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, so we could get clouds or fog, or maybe a good show. Those same clouds and moisture might make a nice sunset tonight too.

Well, I am off to go and fill up another day.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday August 11th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

My apologies for being a day late. It has been a busy week and weekend, and here we go again.

The weekend rain was a real soaker. No one that I was aware of was predicting 1-4″ of rain Saturday night. It made some really huge puddles and made the rivers run big.

In the case of the Peshtigo it was running about -4 last Saturday. For this time of year that isn’t bad. It rained Saturday night and it raised it to +2 for Sunday and +6 for Monday and Tuesday. That is a record high for those days.

That put me back to work on the river, and it has been a fun week so far. A lot of people that paddle got the heads up and took off to come and play. The rivers have not been disappointing anyone, people are having a  ball. Tubing and rafting are a great way to address a humid day in the high 80s.

We have a little rain in the area this morning, but the majority of it has gone south. It was not the heavy rain that was predicted earlier in the week.

We have a hot and humid week ahead that will feel a lot like August. While it isn’t in the forecast beyond tonight, don’t rule out a chance of a shower or storm popping up.

Friday night into Saturday there is another chance of rain. Right now the models are fairly consistent with a QPF of 0.1-0.25″, and the rain clearing out by about noon Saturday. Hopefully that works out, we have a lot of events for Saturday..

Hats off to Chris for doing a great job on our events calendar!

As far as rafting & tubing for the weekend, go for it. The rivers should still be above normal. The Peshtigo River is starting to drop off, but it is still 10 or 11 inches above normal and in record territory. Even if it drops an inch or an inch and a half a day, it will still be above normal for the weekend. The Menominee has been consistently great and should continue to be.

For those that stay out of the water, check out some waterfalls. Those are running much bigger than normal for mid-August too.

That is truly amazing considering that we started the summer in a D-3 or a D-4 drought.

Well, all of this water and rafting and stuff has me a busy boy. I am about to go and dive into another full day and try to squeeze every minute I can out of it. Summer ends far too soon.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

..

Paddler’s Alert!

Sunday August 8th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

We had rain Saturday night that really added up. I still need to survey a little, but totals that people told me over the bar went from 1.3″ to around 4″. It really added up fast, and the Peshtigo River got smacked right in the watershed.

The river went from -4″ on Saturday to +2″ Sunday morning. Right now, 11:30 Sunday night,  I am guessing that it is about +5″ and heading for +6 for tomorrow. That is pretty cool stuff for August.

The graph on the net continues to go straight up, making me think that there might be even more water coming. It hasn’t even started to arch over yet to make the typical haystack shape. This is just the rise from the water that landed between here and Goodman Park or so. The majority of the water from the watershed is still a day out.

The Peshtigo has a long narrow watershed. It takes a lot of local rain to raise the river since it is a pretty narrow drainage corridor in our area. Normally a mid-week rain will peak the river for the weekend. There is a 2-3 day lag due to the long narrow watershed.  Usually when local rain raises it this much and the whole watershed got hit, golly, that is pretty epic.

We are setting records for Peshtigo River levels today. The old record from 12 years of documentation was in 2003 when the Peshtigo ran at 385CFS, and as of 10pm Sunday it was running 457CFS.

How about that.. two months ago we were shattering 96 year record lows because of the drought. Now we are setting record highs in August.

If you have ever come rafting and dragged your boat along rocks in low water, find your way to Kosir’s this week and see what it is really about. At plus 5 or 6 they might even start using the donut rafts, which are huge fun. This is one of the times where I use the old cliche, Use Your Sick Days Wisely.

If the whitewater is your cup, things are looking great for the near future. To hit the Peshtigo in August at +5 or +6 is a total treat.

But wait.. that’s not all. If you order now..

It looks like we will have a couple of decent days Monday and Tuesday, but Wednesday or so the GFS is showing a storm with a QPF of 1.75-2″ here and over 2.5″ not too far west of here. It is also showing another heavy band late week with an inch plus.

Sometimes the GFS overstates things a little (convective feedback in the model), so let’s do a wait ‘n see on the heavy rain forecast. Saturday night’s rain was not in the outlook, or you would have known about it. At that point take it for what it is. The possibility certainly exists, we have seen a lot of focused heavy rain in the region this summer.

Saturday night was interesting. The sunset was worthy of painting. There were storms to the north & south of us, but we were being spared. The distant high cloud tops added a lot of majesty to the sunset.

About sunset I walked around the cabin to the truck. I got quite poured on while I got what I needed out of the truck. I walked 100’ back to the picnic table and it was completely dry. Not a drop of rain had fallen.  I walked over and found the line, and it was like someone drew it with chalk. On one side there were plenty of drop marks, on the south side, not one. I even summoned other people to look.  Amazing.

After sunset the rain came. It was steady and plentiful, and it added up fast. Huge puddles formed in low spots, and the typical spots that erode in heavy rains did so. It went on until a few hours before dawn. By early afternoon Sunday the puddles had mostly soaked in, but there were some surprising mud lines showing how enormous the puddles had become.

Another surprise came Sunday when I saw how clear the river was. Normally the river has a deep tannin stain to it that makes it brown. The same stuff that leaves leaf marks on a patio colors the water in our rivers and lakes.

The river is actually very clean, it is just leaf stained because it’s watershed is in the great forests and swamps in the Nicolet National Forest and Marinette County forest.

Anyway, Sunday the water was surprisingly clear and white. Usually you only see that when it is really low and the only water in the river is the base flow that is fed by the spring creeks.

Bottom line, we had a lot of rain. If you are interested in whitewater rafting or paddling, go for it! The river is getting big and fun and summer is going away too fast.

Rafting costs $23.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Thursday August 5th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It has been quite a week for me with working on web sites. I finally caught up a little, and I am getting a head start here today.

First up the weather. There isn’t too much exciting here. We are looking at the low 80s for temps, and clear weather until Sunday when a chance of rain crops up. (40%)

The first part of the week was pretty hot, and I went into my cheapskate AC mode. That is where I get up at 5 or 6 am and crank up the air conditioner to the ‘frost the windows’ setting for a few hours. It cools the house and contents while the cool outside air makes the ac heat exchange work the most efficiently. The thermal inertia keeps the house cool until late afternoon without running the ac at all during the day. Smart n’ frugal.

I was buried in work Tuesday and kind of had to cut the report short.  There is some stuff to catch up with.

First of all, there is a float party on the Menominee River this Saturday with the nice folks from the Bear Point Yacht Club just east of Wausaukee. They start late morning in Wausauke and float down the Menominee River to the Bear Point Yacht Club. There they have a big party with food and friends. They help with shuttles ahead of time, so go early.

Next up… The directions here from the south are no longer go to Crivitz and take a left at the stoplight. That won’t work at all. First of all, they now have TWO stop lights, qualifying them as a major metropolitan area. They put a second one in where the Citgo and the powersports dealer are.

Then there is the issue of turning west onto Hwy A. Not gonna dew it. They are in the process of tearing up the roads in Crivitz from the stoplight by Gateway Bar all of the way to the Post office on A. If you are headed this way from the south, it is best to avoid that stretch. Instead go to the next town and take X west ( very scenic), or go a few miles north of Middle Inlet and take Moonshine Hill Rd,  or continue on to C in Wausaukee.

Also new in Crivitz, the Crivitz Youth Center has added a putting green for the young’uns. They have been adding feature activities like that for the past few years, including a small bowling alley and a skateboard park. Cool beans.

Bring the Repel.. The beginning of summer was really nice with the total absence of mosquitoes. Those days are over, and we are back to normal. Bring Repel, in some spots it will be very handy.

NORTHERN LIGHTS!

We have been in deep solar minimum for the past few years, and we haven’t had much for northern lights. Some of you have even asked about it. Apparently we had a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) yesterday and had some northern lights. They could happen again tonight, and we are expecting pretty clear skies. Get it while you can. While we are on the ramp up phase of solar cycle 24, it so far has indicated that it will be a quiet one. Here is a link.

Work has consumed most of my early week this week, so I don’t have much of a wildlife report. I did spot our fawn crossing the driveway yesterday. You might remember pictures of that one from late May. Apparently she is alive and well and cute as a button.

I have been too busy lately to pay much attention to getting the e-cig business going. I do have several kits in stock though, ranging from disposables @ $16, basic kits @ $35 and really deluxe kits @ $55. I just got my juice affiliate program approved yesterday for the pre-packaged ones. I also make my own e-cig juices. If you are interested in any of that, use the contact tab to the left.

Personally I am still happy with mine. My smoking is down on average over 1/3, and with increasing frequency, cut in half. Monday I was under a pack a day for the first time in a decade or so, and yesterday was close. If I could only claim that level of success on the treadmill, I’d have something..

Well, it is back to work for me. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB