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Thursday June 17th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

It looks like things are shaping up about the way that I expected for the weeekend. The Peshtigo River is running at a very fun +4.5″ right now, and will rise for the weekend. Slug sent in a comment that the Menominee River is up 3 1/2 feet by him.

The weekend ahead looks nice too with the exception of Friday/Friday night. Tonight and into Friday we are expecting some showers and thunderstorms as a warm front comes into the area. Not too far behind it is a cold front, and that one could bring severe weather.

The cold front is expected to get to us Friday afternoon or night. The models show it coming through with 0.5″ of rain in the NAM. The GFS is showing what I would think is convective feedback, and has QPFs in the 2″ range.

More important, the cold front will bring the ingredients for severe weather. The NWS forecast discussion mentioned CAPE values in the 3500 j/kg range. That is very unstable air. Between that, the shear, jet stream support and other ingredients, Friday could get ugly. From the NWS forecast discussion..

THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO EDGE INTO WSTRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON… WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT ADVECTING A VERY WARM…MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS (USING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S) SHOW STG INSTABILITY…WITH CAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER NC/C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON…AIDED BY THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK…AND INCREASING SFC/850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS…SO SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY. A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EVENT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR GRB CWA ON FRI AFT/EVG.

Sounds ominous.

Behind the cold front it looks like we are in for a great weekend. Look for a sunny day in the upper 70s Saturday, and more of the same on Sunday but with some increasing clouds. Lows in the 50s will make comfortable sleeping and campfire weather.

The whitewater rafting is going to be huge fun this weekend. Both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are running at really fun levels. The Peshtigo is actually over it’s median flow, and the Menominee did it yesterday. The menom is between 2,000 and 2,500cfs, and the Peshtigo 452cfs (+4.5″).

I will stick to my prediction that the Pesh will rise tomorrow and beyond from Tuesday’s rain, and bring 6+ inches for the weekend. If the T-storms tomorrow add up according to predictions, it will end up (maybe much)  higher. The Menom should be in between 2000 and 2500, again a huge fun level.

I don’t have any new events, but here is my update list..

There is a car show at Lakewood Pavillion

The Crandon Racetrack is having a fan appreciation weekend

The Dark Horse Band will be at the Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend.

and Chris’ original list..

Next weekend is huge for events. The Dark Horse band will be at Rapids, and they  are bringing Tommy Graywolf, a really excellent fiddler. The band is great and TG is amazing. (The Dark Horse guys will be playing Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend too.)

Well, that is my story and I’m sticking to it. Come rafting this weekend, the rivers are bigger than they have been all year. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Wednesday June 16th, 2010

Paddler’s Alert- Heavy rain yesterday will bring the Peshtigo River to above normal levels for the weekend, and the Menominee River too..

The rain yesterday was very generous. We saw a lot here, but nothing like the northern and western Peshtigo River watershed saw. They had productive rain all day, and enough to clearly lift the river for late week and the weekend. At the end of the storm this big blob of yellow, orange, and red on the radar camped right over the watershed for a couple of hours. WOW.

The Menominee River watershed was in play as well, and they saw at least an inch of rain, and more likely two.

If you are even remotely interested in whitewater rafting/paddling, clear the calendar for the weekend and call Kosir’s. There is already enough rain down to make the river(s) great this weekend, and more rain is on tap for Thursday and Friday.

The weekend looks warm with temps in the 80s and a minor (30%) chance of rain Sunday.

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Ok, Im back..

Here is a bad screen shot of the radar returns this morning along with a rough outline of the Peshtigo River watershed.

It is hard to make out, but the yellow is 1.5-2″ of rain and the orange is 2-3″. Those same returns showed us in the half inch band, and no way. The USGS gauge at Kosir’s showed about 2/3″ and that is usually half of my bucket.

Let’s settle out of court for we saw a lot of rain, and the far reaches of the Peshtigo River watershed saw a lot of heavy rain. That will bring the river up in 2-3 days and keep it there for 3-5. That is perfectly timed for the weekend.

Thursday night to Friday there are thunderstorms expected that will give it a last minute boost. Those are forecast to clear out in time for Saturday morning. Sunday there is a minor chance of showers (30%) as the next storm approaches.

At this point since it is hard to quantify the rainfall beyond heavy, it is hard to pin down a number.  I am very comfortable with predicting a +6″ or better for Saturday’s noon Peshtigo River rafting trip with Kosir’s, and probably more.

Likewise the Menominee River watershed saw some action yesterday. The gauge up there shows an inch, and I know from watching the radar that their watershed definitely saw some rain. That river too will be prime for the weekend.

The storm didn’t look like much on the models, and I was looking at the prospect of the rivers falling from last weekend’s levels. That is not going to happen. This weekend should be even better than last weekend.

Chris made mention that people would want to know that if the water comes up as I expect it to that they will be running rafts as well as the funyaks on the river. I leave those decisions up to Kosir’s, but usually above about +4″ you can do a raft. We are probably at +5 now and it will rise before the weekend.

The whitewater stretches are not the only places that benefitted from the rain. I checked a few trout streams yesterday and they are running good. Likewise my drive-by observation of Waubee Lake levels saw that it was significantly recovered. It isn’t back to normal, but it is clearly up.

I did come up with a few more events. I will keep working on it. In addition to the list in yesterday’s report..

There is a car show at Lakewood Pavillion

The Crandon Racetrack is having a fan appreciation weekend

The Dark Horse Band will be at the Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend.

Well, today looks like one of two nice days this week so I am off to go and play outside. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday June 15th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

Wow what a weekend! If you weren’t here you probably should have been. The weather turned out pretty good. It was a cloudy and cool weekend where it only rained a little at night.

The whitewater rivers were huge fun last weekend. With levels quickly rising the Peshtigo was a blast for a lot of people. A rising river is pushier and bigger, and that is what we got. I predicted +2″ and well over 300cfs for the Saturday noon rafting trip. That is one prediction that came home right on the mark. There were a lot of people very happy about that.

But wait.. It wasn’t over yet. The river continued to rise, and Sunday saw levels go past +4″ and close to 450cfs. It probably peaked at about +5″ about midnight Monday morning.

The fun was in full swing on the Menominee River. The Menom came up a full two feet between last Tuesday and last Saturday, and went from 96 year record lows (5-600cfs) to very close to it’s median flow. People fortunate enough to raft that last weekend found water levels over 2,200cfs. I don’t have pictures yet, but years around that river tell me that there were big waves and crashes, and that a lot of people had a lot of fun.

We also saw a few kayakers this weekend. In a very unusual scenario, the Wolf River did not share in our rising water bounty. Usually the Wolf is a good crystal ball for the Pesh. The Wolf rises about a day faster, and the rivers have adjoining watersheds and similar rainfall. For some reason the Pesh peaked out at about 440cfs yesterday, and the Wolf is peaking at 250 today. That is a pretty uncommon scenario, but it was real, and as a result I got to see some of my hardboating friends last weekend.

There were quite a few web site visitors around last weekend. Thank you to all of the people that said hello. Greatly appreciated were the two web site visitors that slipped me a fiver as a tip for what I do here. The suggestion of ‘have a beer on us’ was taken to heart, thank you.

Overall it was a heck of a fun weekend. I am sure that I am not the only one that really filled it up or that ended up pretty worn out.

If you weren’t here, don’t worry about it, it looks like we are in for another great weekend next weekend. The forecast is for a wet week early and late, with Wednesday, Thursday, and the weekend dry.

Yesterday we had some scattered showers, and it picked up this morning. As I type this a 7am there is a big blob of rain and thunderstorms heading for our region, and it looks like it will go off and on until early Wednesday. Again Friday we are expecting rain, and then the GFS has it clear in time for a nice weekend.

As far as the rivers and the rafting go, we should still be in good shape. The rain today could get heavy at times, and the late week rain should boost the river about the time the early week rain starts peaking the river Thursday and Friday. Right now the HPC has the week’s rainfall predicted at 1.25-1.5″, but we could see most of that today.

The Friday storm is not shown as a huge rain producer, but with temps in the mid-80s forecast, I’d deduce that there might be some thunderstorms and possible heavy rain. At the moment the jet stream forecast and GFS would put us in the focal point of that.

This coming weekend is prime time for events.

I am pretty sure that there will be additions to that list as the week progresses.

The turnaround on the drought has been nothing short of miraculous. Two weeks ago I was talking about a 100 year drought, and D-3 and D-4 extreme drought conditions. Today the rivers are pretty normal, the ground is good and wet, and there were actually big puddles for the ATV, mud truck, and enduro bike guys to enjoy last weekend.  The green world is flourishing and vigorously growing as a result of the rain. I will be checking out Waubee Lake levels later today when I go that way, but I expect some recovery.

I expect to be back tomorrow with another update. I will likely find events for Lakewood and Townsend and points west when I go that way today. The forecast will have updates, and I will work on some pictures too.

In the meantime have a good Tuesday and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday June 11th, 2010

Storm to clear out faster than expected, nice weekend ahead!

Greetings and welcome!

The weather picture is a lot clearer this morning. The models and forecasts have come into pretty good agreement on things, and it is very favorable for the weekend.

The storm is what some forecasters refer to as a double barrel low pressure. There are two associated storms in a row. Earlier forecasts had the first one hitting today, and the second hitting Saturday into Sunday.

Yesterday one of the models started flirting with the idea of the second storm going well south of us and leaving us with a good weekend. Today the rest are on board with that.

The HPC is probably the most aggressive with the rain, showing <0.25″ between Saturday at 6am and noon. After Saturday noon there is only a minor chance of rain throughout the models.

The first wave of the storm has passed through and it was wet. As of 11am the big wave is here. There is ongoing rain, thunder, and it is as dark out as if it were 9pm at night. The rainfall is probbly in the 1.5-2″ per hour range, it is really hammering out there. We have seen a lot of rain, and there is a lot more coming in the near future.

The Peshtigo did come up this morning as I predicted. Even Chris doubted it, but I said no, there is another push coming from the mid-week heavy rain in the far reaches of the watershed. It just takes 3 days to get here. It showed a rise this morning finally.

As of this morning the Pesh is higher than it has been since April 10th. (click the graph)

Those weekends were in the 270-280CFS range, and we are running 239 as of 8am. That will continue to rise from the Tuesday/Wednesday rain, plus it is a total deluge outside. That will raise it too. I am going big here and predicting in excess of 300cfs and over +2″ for Saturday’s noon rafting trip on the Pesh.

The other thing here is that a rising river is just plain more fun. The pushier water makes the waves bigger, and the splashes more fun. This will be a rising river with some force behind it. There are going to be some great times on the river this weekend.

People running the Menominee River are in for a treat too. Based on current flow and water to come, that should hit 2,000cfs this weekend. That river is so much fun when it gets big.

I know a lot of you don’t raft or care about it. This is a big deal for me. Between the drought and people deciding that my pictures would be a good place to save a buck in a bad economy, I was down to about 16% of my normal earnings last quarter. Yes I am pretty excited that the drought turned around in such an amazing way.

I also want to point out that this drought busting wet stretch was the one that I was looking for early in spring when the El Nino started fading. I was kind of hoping for it in March so that we could snowmobile on it and then raft on it in spring, but it came much later.

Well the radar is showing the back of the big storm already to Wausau, and not much of anything behind it. It looks like the weekend will turn out ok for weather and great for rafting.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB