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June 10, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

By all accounts we could see a couple of inches of rain over the next 3 or 4 days. The HPC offered this impressive graphic this morning. It is the rainfall forecast from 6am Wed to 6am Monday, showing 2.5-3″.  (Time stamp is GMT, we are GMT -6 hours)

They also offer one with reduced totals, with them dialed back to 1.75-2″. Either way it looks like rain ahead.

Here are my various sources..

NAM model- Rain Friday &  Sunday, but not Saturday, 1.25-1.75″ total rain.

GFS model-1.0-1.25″ of rain Friday, Saturday only minor rain with 6 hour rainfall totals of 0.01-0.1″, rain Saturday night, Sunday no rain.

HPC- Rain Friday, Friday night and Saturday, clears out for Sunday, 2.5-3″ by Sunday 6am,  6am Sunday-6am Tuesday 0.1-0.25″ rain.

NWS- The NWS did not list precip forecasts, just percentages, 60% tonight, 90% Friday, 60% Friday night, 70% Saturday, 50% Saturday night, 30% Sunday.

So the NAM and GFS say we will have a decent Saturday, the NWS and HPC are going for Sunday. All agree that Friday will get wet with an inch or more of rain.

Looking through all of this I was reminded of some of the more hyped snow storms that never came. Southern storm, multiple ideas in the forecasts, and excitement about the possibility of precip all are familiar elements in the story. Sometimes it works out, often it ends up less that the excitement merited.

Both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are up. The Menom was struggling to hit 600cfs and is now running a foot and a half higher, at the mean flow for today, of 1,800cfs. That is a bet for rafting.

The Peshtigo is up from a rocky 120cfs to a very runnable 214. That brought it from below -6 to about -1 or -2.  In my opinion anything over 200 or -2 is great on the Pesh, and more is better. By my prediction we will see it rise a bit yet, and yes, well above zero for the weekend, unless we get skunked Friday.

I believe that will rise more this week from Tuesday’s rain in the far reaches of the watershed, but the 100 year drought things throws a new dynamic into it. It is not clear yet if it will just suck into the dry swamps or come down the river for us to play in. We should know tomorrow.

Either way both rivers are good to go for paddling this weekend, and heavy rains Friday should boost them more.

The whitewater rivers are not the only beneficiaries of our recent rain. The Menominee River is up a foot and a half in some flat water ares. Area lakes should rise as well, and the green world is very happy about the rain. I am not sure how long it will take to perc down into wells, but it has to help those too.

Late yesterday afternoon I went for a get out of the house ride. On the way to the gas station there was a double rainbow as the emerging sun passed through the last of the rain off to our east. It was big and vivid, a real dandy rainbow.

Sunset over the flowage was spectacular as the last clouds masked and reflected the sun’s last rays in amazing ways. I was somewhere between really relaxed and doing back flips over forgetting the camera between the sunset and the rainbow.

As dusk came I headed over to a secret spot in the Nicolet to watch and listen to the night come. The tree frogs were out in force with choruses that responded like waves. The whippoorwills were out in force in quite a few spots, and most insistent with their calls. On the way there and back I must have swerved the truck at least 10 times to dodge the woodcocks in the road.

On the way out I spotted a really big owl, with a wingspan of about half or two  thirds of mine. I didn’t get a real good look, but it was big and flew like an owl on the hunt, swooping down out of a tree and gliding after some unseen prey.

It was a good night and crawling back into the woods and being quiet came with many rewards.

In events this weekend..

I will update again tomorrow. I think things will be a little clearer then with the weather.

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Tuesday June 8th, 2010-9pm update

9pm

It has rained almost all day. My planter shows 7/8″ as of 9pm and it is still coming.

According to the radar returns the rain spanked both the Peshtigo and Menominee River watersheds in a grand way. Key areas of the Peshtigo watershed saw an estimated 2-3″ of rainfall, though the Accuweather radar estimate is closer to 4-6″. That might be a little high.

Either way the result is the same, rafting will be the best that it has been so far this summer this coming week and weekend. The recent past has been amazing with all of the rain, and it has been hitting just right in the key section of the Pesh watershed.

The creeks in the upper watershed of the Peshtigo are like a series of small capillaries. When we get a lot of rain up that way, the river takes 2-3 days to come up, and it stays there for a few (2-5) days.  We are seeing the rise from the Saturday storm yesterday and today, and the rain today is adding to that. The last three storms really bulls eyed the upper reaches of the watershed.

The last four weeks of low water really humbled the Peshtigo, and right in prime season when a lot of people come rafting. For it to turn around this fast is pretty amazing.

We will have some wild times on the rivers this weekend. A rising river is always extra fun, and they will be rising with some gusto from the rain that is already down. With the prospect of more rain tomorrow and another inch or two Friday, I am pumped up like a 6 year old on his third Red Bull.

RJB

Early afternoon

Greetings and welcome!

There is the sweet sound of rain on the roof this afternoon.

The forecast changed a little since yesterday, and the rain came earlier and stronger than predicted. We could see 0.5-1.0″ of rain today. It is hitting the Peshtigo and Menominee River watersheds very nicely with wave after wave of yellow and orange on the radar. There is also a chance of more rain tomorrow, mostly north of Green Bay and in the UP.

It is a little early to call, but I would expect the whitewater rafting to be making a huge comeback this weekend. Both rivers are up already from past rains, and if you look at the HPC QPF for the week, we are looking at 2″ of rain for the week by Saturday morning, and it could go up, the next higher band is close. If we have 2″ of rain this week, those rivers will come up big and offer great rafting this weekend, possibly the best of 2010 so far.

The weekend storm looks to be on track. Friday and Early Saturday morning should be wet, but Saturday should only bring a minor chance of rain(QPF=<0.1″/6 hours). Sunday brings a better chance of rain and again a chance of measurable precip. That is what the models show today anyway. Between a decent weekend possible and 2″ of rain between now and then, I am pretty excited about it.

See yesterday’s update for more.

RJB

Monday June 7th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The weekend turned out a little better than expected. It did rain Saturday, but until 4:30 it was just on the radar here. I was just wondering about it, and right at 4:30 I started to see the first drops.

It was a good rain for the area, and it hit the Peshtigo River watershed north of Highway 8 very nicely. The USGS gauge on the Menominee River showed 0.75″. The Peshtigo Gauge showed about 0.2″.

With Saturday’s rain the Pesh gauge shows about an inch for the past week, the Menom gauge shows about an inch and a half. I have not verified it this year yet, but the automated gauges are usually about half of what I measure in my bucket.

Sunday turned out better than expected with only isolated showers popping up.

This week we are looking at a chance of rain again Tuesday and Wednesday. Again there is a difference of opinion among the models and sources on how much and when it will be. Numbers like 0.25-0.5″ and 0.5-0.75″ come up on the GFS and NAM, the HPC is less impressed with us bordering between the 0.1-0.25″ and 0.25-0.5″ bands.

The weekend is also interesting. We will be on the northeast quadrant of a huge almost continent wide storm system with low pressure areas north and south. The GFS is showing a wave of rain Friday and then a little Sunday, followed by the brunt on the storm Sunday night-Tuesday.

It sounds nice, but I am not sure that it is that simple. With the big storm bearing down on us it should be warm and humid with the southwest flow in advance of the low. That would make it a little unsettled, introducing the possibility of occasional storms popping up. Predicting if, when and where is a tuffy.

I am also just plain skeptical that it will stay clear of our weekend. I don’t mean to be negative, but previous model runs have been showing it bringing a very wet weekend. Right now it is trending toward a better outlook. Both possibilities exist, let’s let it play out a day or three.

The wet weather recently has really helped the area. A friend fished a few lakes Sunday and said that levels came up a surprising amount. Both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers rose to more normal levels. If it rains Tuesday and again Friday it could hold promise of some fun whitewater on both rivers this weekend. I like the Pesh over 200cfs and we are at 181 with two chances of rain between now and the weekend.

With the promise of continued rains, the weekend after could be very interesting. The rivers are still low, but it is getting better fast. The rain has been good to us, and the GFS shows it coming stronger and faster over the next few weeks.

Here are some events for the weekend..

Well it is a nice day out, so I am off to tinker the old lawn mower back to life and cut some grass. The rain has it growing fast and thick along with everything else green.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Friday June 4th, 2010

Greetings and welcome!

The rain was very good to us today. It started raining early morning and is just now slowing down about 1pm.  I went outside a moment ago and measured 15/16th of an inch in a planter on the picnic table. The tractor seat is beyond full. Some of the waves of rain included decent downpours, others were just steady rain.

For an area classified as D-3 ( Extreme Drought) setting 100 year records, it was a glorious rain. There is actually damp ground, puddles, runnoff, and all of the things that go along with it. The rain has now passed for the most part and we are into the lingering showers part.

My sources have a lot of different ideas on the weekend weather. The best that I can tell there is a chance for showers Saturday Am (minor) and then an increasing chance after noon. There should be some rain Saturday night into Sunday morning, and then Sunday looks hit and miss.

Right now the HPC has the 6am Saturday to 6am Sunday QPF at 0.25″ and similar totals for 6am Sunday-6am Monday. The GFS and NAM disagree, upping the totals to 0.5-0.75″, mostly from the rain Saturday night.

My best guess is that Saturday will start out ok, and we will probably get in a good day before late day showers come.  Sunday looks more hit and miss with light showers, unless the storm for Saturday night slows down and lingers into Sunday.

The bottom line? We will probably have a mostly decent weekend, but the chance of rain exists throughout it (30-40%). Be ready for either way. Don’t expect a lot of mud, the puddles when it rained the other day lasted about 10 minutes.

If it does rain on your day it would be a good reason for a ride in the forest. As I mentioned the other day, the variety of green colors out there are amazing. A damp day really makes them stand out.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB