Greetings and welcome!
The holiday weekend is finally here. Hopefully it is a fun and safe one for everyone, and don’t forget why it is a holiday.
The weather outlook for the weekend looks like most of it will be dry, but there is a chance for occasional rain. The timing of it remains a bit of a question mark. The forecast models are the most useful when they agree on a scenario. That isn’t happening at all. The elements for rain will be in place in the region, tracking down when and where is the challenge.
We are not expecting a lot of rain. The two best chances are Friday night and now Sunday night. The part that has my attention is the rainfall amount. The models and forecasts all have us for 1/2″ of rain or less total for the whole weekend from Friday night to Monday. The new NAM is even lower.
I like the NWS approach where they have rain chances at 60% tonight and 40% for the rest of the weekend because the chances will be there and the timing isn’t clear cut. It seems a little dark in the aspect of someone skimming the surface and thinking that it is going to rain for 4 days straight. It just isn’t like that.
If you look at the very latest NAM model and click on the various time frames under ‘850mb Temp, MSLP, 6hr Pcpn’, you will see that there are a lot of 6 hour frames with no precip or where we are in the 0.01-0.1 band. Hopefully it works out like that and we have a great weekend.
It did get a little cold last night. We were down to 28. Thankfully the weekend lows will be in the 40s tonight and 50s the rest of the weekend. Highs sould be in the 65-70 range Saturday and Sunday, and upper 70s Monday. That will come along with some humidity and a better chance of storms as a bigger Monday-Tuesday storm system approaches.
Other than that not much has changed. The rivers are still running at excellent levels and we are going to have a great time at Kosir’s. I did forget to mention that they will have a DJ and the Piano Man Bob Heckler there over the weekend, so the nights will be fun too.
Other than that have a fun and safe weekend, and thank you for visiting!
RJB