Greetings and welcome!
5PM Update
The latest runs of the forecast models are pretty unanimous that the rain will be to the south of us. The TV and the HPC are showing a little rain in the morning and only scattered showers in the afternoon. The NAM and GFS don’t even think much of that idea, skipping the morning rain completely and leaving the chance of a scattered shower in the afternoon.
Here is the important part.. None of them showed a QPF of over a quarter inch. Most (3/4) plots showed us in the 0.01-0.1″ band.
It isn’t carved in stone, but it sounds good to me.
Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Am Update
Here we are at the Friday of Hog Wrestling weekend at the Caldron Falls Bar. I drove past there yesterday and they were well along in the set up of the tents and stuff. It is a big deal, not just for the Caldron Falls Bar, but for every one around here.
There is also usually a big law enforcement push in this area over the weekend. Have a great time, but use designated drivers, use a shuttle, or stay put when happy hour starts. Whatever, just don’t play the OWI game.
We had a little more rain Thursday. It started about 11am and was pretty steady. I recalled not having to change the intermittent wipers all of the way to town and back, thinking now THAT is a steady rain. I am not sure what is in the bucket, but I emptied it Wednesday, so it should be an accurate total for the storm. I will guess at an inch r so, but the bucket will tell in a couple of hours when the sun comes up.
The TV said that some areas by Milwaukee saw as much as 8″ of rain out of that storm. Wow. It pushed them, Green Bay and probably some of the Fox Valley stations into all time record rainfall for July.
The rain is expected to stop for a while today before redeveloping for Friday night and Saturday morning. The forecast now is for rain/T-storms up to about noon and then only scattered stuff as the storm whisks off to the east.
That is going to be hard to call. If the storm follows the path of the last two with the heavy stuff downstate and us only in the northern reaches of the rain, it will work out. If the heavy stuff pushes a little farther north we could see more and longer rain. Both scenarios exist in the models.
I am leaning toward it following the last couple of storms, and the heaviest stuff going south of us. The battleground seems to have moved 100 miles south, and chances are that is where the next storm will hit the most.
My guess is that it will rain until about noon Saturday, maybe a little later, and then give way to a nice weekend. Sunday is supposed to be sunny & 80.
Along that same line the rain Tuesday and Thursday did not impact the Peshtigo River watershed as much as it hit here or downstate. No big deal, it is still running above normal and should be for the weekend. The Menominee has consistently peaked over 2,000cfs this week, again great water for this time of year. Whitewater rafting remains good and the rivers should go up with Thursday and Friday night’s rain.
I almost forgot to mention that this weekend is the Town of Doty VFD picnic. See Tuesday’s report for details on that and hog wrestling. Be aware that here is also a big grand opening party coming up next weekend at Fisher’s camp.
Well I am going to run along. I will return with any thing that I missed. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB