Tuesday July 19th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

The weekend came about as expected. It was warm Saturday and hot Sunday.

The rain never got here Saturday, but we had a good storm Sunday night just after dark. That one brought a dramatic lightning display and some strong winds. I guessed the rain totals here at 3/8-1/2″ and went home to find the rain gauges showing 0.39″. Lucky guess.

We had another line of storms come through yesterday that brought some heavy rains. I didn’t get so much here, but the Peshtigo River watershed (outlined) and to our SW had areas that saw 1-2″ of rain.

It is good to see the area get at least some rain, it has been a few weeks since we have had meaningful rain.

The heat is the topic of discussion these days. It has been hot and humid here like everywhere else. I saw on the TV weather last night that an area near Green Bay reported a dew point over 80 degrees yesterday. That is pretty humid air. That has only happened 3 times in the last 50 years in this area.

Usually the rule is a dew point over 60 is where humidity starts getting uncomfortable. In the 70-75 range it is very humid and quite uncomfortable. Over 80 is oppressive.

I could tell that there was a lot of humidity last weekend because the rocks in shaded areas of the trail were sweating. The warm humid air came in contact with the cool rocks and the humidity condensed, leaving them wet. Assuming a ground/rock temperature of about 60 degrees, that would put the dew point higher than that.

At the moment (11:30am) we are looking at 89F and a dew point of 72, a fairly hot and very humid day. Tomorrow looks like the peak of it all when temps could go to 97 and dew points could be in the mid-70s.

Once we get through tomorrow the heat and humidity should gradually ramp down a little. Look for mid 80s for Thursday-Sunday, and dew points in the 60-65 range.

With a hot juicy atmosphere there is a chance of rain daily. Usually it will be a 30 or 40% chance, and when the rain comes it might be a good T-storm or downpour, but it won’t last too long. The squall Sunday night maybe lasted an hour, storms since have been less.

The weekend weather looks interesting. The models right now have a warm front camped to our south for Saturday. That could bring a little rain downstate, but they leave us dry. Early Sunday morning they are showing a cold front coming through with an area of storms. This could bring an inch of rain, but it will also bring in much cooler air behind it. Monday we are looking for a high of 79 with a lot less humidity.

Last weekend I stayed wet to beat the heat. I think I went swimming at least 6 times. Sunday afternoon a few of us went tubing down the calm stretch of the Peshtigo by Kosir’s, and that was a lot of fun. The water was even warmer than usual after the hot day, leaving it very refreshing.

The storms this week have already brought the river up an inch or so, and more will follow. Depending on how many storms hit the watershed, the weekend water levels could range from good enough to great. Yesterday’s rain should keep it above zero and in positive territory for the weekend, how much higher is the question now.

This is a big weekend around here with Saturday being the Caldron Falls Bar’s 26th annual Hog Wrestling competition. The event is one of the biggest in the area, bringing in an estimated 5-8,000 people. The idea is that people go into a muddy ring of calf deep water and try to put a pig on a barrel.

I will encourage you to bring your designated driver. This weekend always brings a lot of people and also a significant law enforcement presence. Don’t be driving drunk or screwing around or there is a pretty good chance of getting some unwanted attention. Have a great time, just be smart about it.

That is about it for today. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

 

 

 

 

Friday July 15th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

As of my 1pm check, the line of rain for today looks pretty minor. It is a cloudy cool day and it will hard for a storm to get rolling.

The main focus of the rain looks like it is going south. There is a narrow band of green on the radar going through about Vilas Co, and the bulk of the rain will be to the south of us other than that band. If it is just that one line on the radar, it could end up radar rain or a couple of tenths. We could see another weak line like that overnight, opinions vary on that one.

The latest HPC and North American Model updates are showing a chance of a storm catching us tomorrow, and are showing QPFs in the 0.5-0.75″ range. It isn’t expected to be an all day thing, but rather a line of storms.

There is some disagreement on timing, morning or  afternoon. If we have a partly cloudy day with some sun to get convection going, and a wet atmosphere, I could see an afternoon storm and a good downpour.

Once the area of rain is past tomorrow we should be done with rain for the weekend. There is no mention of rain Saturday night or Sunday.

I think my path here is to be aware of the possibility of rain tomorrow and be ready for it, but not worry about it too much.

It isn’t an organized storm bearing down on us. It is more that conditions are right, and a little energy in the atmosphere or afternoon convection could trigger some showers or a storm. Recent storm paths, including today’s, have pushed the bulk of the rain south, and I am not sold on the idea that it will suddenly change tomorrow.

Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

 

 

Thursday July 14th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

We have an unusually cool cloudy day today. Instead of our normal high of about 80, we are a very comfortable 70 degrees this afternoon. There is a good overcast and some rain showers scattered in the area. So far I have only had a few drops on the windshield.

The 70 and cloudy day has me thinking that I should push my mountain of inside work back 6 hours and tackle outside work while it is so nice out. It is a prefect day for cutting grass, weeds, firewood, working on cars and lawnmowers or other outside chores.

The devil on the left shoulder thinks that I should go fishing instead. With unsettled weather and a full moon it certainly is a prime day for it.

As I was riding home from my early afternoon appointment wondering what I should write about today the obvious answer was the wildflowers. The fields and roadsides are alive with color right now. The new player is the black centered daisies, but there are a lot more different plants in bloom.

The weather outlook for the weekend is pretty typical of summer. Friday and Saturday should be in the 80-85 range, and Sunday in the low 90s. There will be some humidity around to make the heat more effective. Rain chances peak Friday night at 50%, with today and Saturday at 40% and Friday at 30%.

The rain doesn’t look like anything organized, it is typical summer showers that go along with the heat and humidity.

Next week looks hot and juicy. The forecast holds a lot of humidity and days in the low or mid-90s. That is the product of a clockwise flow from a huge high pressure system. As it approached it gave us great days in the 70s this week as it brought the weather out of the north.  Next week as it passes and the warm humid air comes up from the south, we get more summer like weather.

I have not encountered any new events since the last update, but I will give you a heads up that Hog Wrestle 2011 is coming up at the Caldron Falls Bar July 23. That is not this Saturday, but the one after.

I was there last week and they had a few new beers on tap. They have always been a good stop for us premium beer lovers. Now they have Nitro Stout, Stella, Spotted Cow, and Blue Moon on tap in addition to the six more domestic offerings.

A hot weekend is a good time to get wet. At Kosir’s this week the infamous Totally Tubular Jay has been busy shuttling tubers riding down the calm stretch of the Peshtigo River. It has become very popular.

The Peshtigo River is at -1.5 according to the morning update, which is a little rocky but runnable. The Menominee is a better choice for rafting with it’s dam controlled flows running much higher.

That is about it for today. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

 

 

Wednesday July 13th, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

Last weekend went a lot better than expected for rain. We had a nice weekend until Sunday, when it tried to rain, but could only produce a few drops. It was a classic case of radar rain where it was raining a couple of thousand feet up, but it wasn’t making it to the ground. It was also a great example of why you shouldn’t let a little rain in the forecast cancel weekend plans.

Saturday night’s sunset was amazing. There were big backlit clouds that the sun was poking beams through. With the high humidity, the beams showed up really well. The back lighting brought pinks and oranges and a really dramatic display.

We are having a very pleasant week as high pressure brings us cool air from the north. Today and tomorrow should bring delightful high temperatures in the low 70s.

There is usually a price to pay for that though, and this week is no different. As the big high pressure system drifts to the east the return flow from the clockwise circulation will begin to pump warmer more humid air up from the south. Temperatures are forecast to start climbing as the weekend comes. Friday and Saturday we are looking at low 80s. By Sunday the NWS has us for low 90s.

The warmer moist air will bring some instability and fuel for rain and storms. Right now our best chances look like Thursday and Thursday night (50%). Friday and Saturday the NWS has us for a 30% chance, and no mention of rain in Sunday’s forecast.

Looking at the GFS it doesn’t show any organized storms, but rather random chances for instability showers or storms. Most of that is shown staying to our west, leaving us with a total rainfall forecast of 0.1-0.25″ for the weekend.

Fishing should be good this weekend. Friday is a full moon, putting much of this week as well as the weekend in peak days according to the solunar tables. Having unsettled weather to our west should help too, both with cloudy days and with a down trend on the barometer.

Here are some events for the weekend..

July 15-17 Lakewood Town Hall
and Pavilion
Lakewood Mardi Gras –
Carnival Rides start 5pm Friday – Food & Refreshments
Softball Tournament Saturday – Parade Sunday at noon
Live Music Friday & Saturday 8pm-midnight, Sunday 1-5pm
July 16 Bear Point Yacht Club
Hwy 180 – Wausaukee
Menominee River Float Trips
Float Trip starts at 11:00 AM

There are a couple of more that I found..

Pine Ridge Raceway is having a car show and swap meet Saturday.

There is a benefit for the victims of the Crivitz apartment building fire on May 25th. Most of the 19 displaced residents were elderly or disabled. The benefit is Sunday at the Gateway Bar in Crivitz.

The same place that hosts the Porterfield Country Music Festival is having their Cruisin’ Oldies Festival and car show. Look for a lot of classic 50s cars and do-wop and oldies bands.

My apologies for again being late with my early week update. I am one busy guy right now. That is a great thing, but sometimes it is a little overwhelming and cuts into the stuff that I like to do like updating here. I will do my best to keep the updates coming in a timely fashion.

That is about it from here. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB