Tuesday May 25th, 2010
Greetings and welcome!
Even though Friday started the weekend with more rain than expected and an overcast day that never hit 70, the weekend turned out pretty good. Saturday was overcast and in the 70s, and a pretty nice day. The sun came out in the afternoon, and eventually the skies cleared in time for some good stars Saturday night. The biggest challenge to sky gazing where I was would have to have been the moonlight. It was pretty cool in the fog and the trees, but it lit the sky. Sunday brought a mix of clouds and sun and a nice day in the 80s.
Monday was less desirable. Like most of the state we were in the 90s with high humidity. Both Green Bay and Rhinelander set records. In the case of Rhinelander the high of 90 broke the record of 87 from 1928. One of the TV weather buddies offered the nifty factoid that it was the hottest day since June 24th of last year. That says a lot about how cool July and August were last year. That is almost absurd.
Sunday afternoon we went to Kosir’s for a sit on top kayak trip on the Peshtigo River where it turns into Caldron Falls Flowage. Our group had people spanning 3 decades in age and we had a ball. The kayaks were stable and easy to paddle, and they have a drink caddy. The scenery was tremendous. The bird soaring on the wind with the stairways to heaven where the sun was poking between clouds was really cool. It was a really relaxed trip and a stress buster for sure. Followed by a cookout and good live acoustic guitar music around the campfire after sunset, it was a heck of a day.
Less fun on Sunday was cutting the grass for the first time. I got the old rider going and made a fine start on cutting grass. Some was not very long thanks to the drought. The usual thicker spots were a foot high and plenty thick. Folks that haven’t cut grass yet at weekend places should find that it is time.
The drought has been brutal, leaving lakes and rivers very low. Friday’s rain helped green and growing things, but the 0.2″ or so didn’t address the bigger rain deficit. Rhinelander has us behind on rain 3.96″ since Jan one, though I believe that they had a few storms that we didn’t see, both winter and spring. I would add a couple of inches of deficit for local variation via the Silver Cliff Split.
One huge benefit of the drought is the the bugs are not bad at all this year. Wood ticks are plentiful, but the mosquitoes are not. Normally when I walk to the river in late May I cross a sheltered area where I come out with a huge cloud of mosquitoes surrounding me. It is really something. Saturday I wore no Repel and attracted not a single mosquito in that area. That just doesn’t happen. Likewise when I was outside both Saturday and Sunday, plus both nights, I found exactly zero mosquitoes, and the Repel stayed in the truck all weekend. They do exist, I have seen them, but the population was almost non-existent in my travels last weekend.
Speaking of events that just don’t happen ever.. Gas prices are actually going down in the face of Memorial Day weekend. Usually we get jacked a little for holiday travel, and still probably will. That will be going against a declining petroleum market. Yesterday a barrel of oil was down to $68.36 at one point. That is off 22 percent from highs of $87.15 a barrel earlier this month. According to www.wisconsingasprices.com, people in the Madison and Janesville areas are paying as little as $2.55, while folks up this way are still in the $2.80s. ( Late addition-Chris paid $2.59 in Crivitz today)
The gas/oil market is falling in part due to the devaluation of the Euro. As that falls it makes dollar based crude oil more expensive. The $2.55-$2.85 pump price today really beats the snot out of a couple of years ago when $4.28 gas on Memorial Day weekend crippled tourism and contributed to our economic woes.
Get it while you can. A lot of the hurricane forecasters that I have seen predictions from are saying that the potential is there for a strong Atlantic hurricane season, and an active time in the Gulf of Mexico. With significant oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes there affect gas prices here. If we see some of those areas hit this summer, $2.50 gas will be a fond memory. Get it while you can.
The El Nino that made for a warm and low snow winter and dry spring is now dead. Good riddance. The ENSO regions of the Pacific are cooling fast and are in what is considered neutral territory. Anomalies are as follows.. Niño 4 +0.3ºC, Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC, Niño 3 -0.2ºC, Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC. That is the end of this El Nino, which was the strongest since ’98.
At the moment sea surface temps are trending down sharply in the ENSO region. At -0.5 it is considered La Nina conditions. There are a variety of predictions on how it will play out. A lot of predictions are for the La Nina to develop later in the year, and neutral conditions in the short term. There are some predictions of a brief dip and a return of El Nino for next winter. Those are the less common of the predictions, but I won’t rule it out.
In the short term the ENSO conditions and other factors like conditions in the Atlantic have the setting for a big hurricane season. It is not really clear to me yet if the force field will be lifted from Northeastern WI and we will se some meaningful rain, or if the drought will drag on. We have been seeing a little rain, but nothing over an inch since it snowed 2 weeks ago. It would be really nifty to get some big storms with a lot of rain. Skip the devastation please.
A random thought.. Two Fridays ago it snowed enough to make driving difficult and knock out the power. A short 17 days later Athelstane weather recorded a high of 93.6 yesterday. Ya gotta laugh at the variability of the weather around here.
This week will bring a change in the weather, and a chance of some rain with locally heavy rainfall possible. It looks like a hot one today again, but there is a cold front on the way. That should bring some showers and storms with the frontal passage Tuesday night and Wednesday. The atmosphere is really loaded with CAPEs in the 4,000 j/kg range and precipitable moisture values of 1.5″ plus. You will get that with hot humid air and dew points in the 60s and 70s. At the moment the atmosphere is capped, but if that breaks down we could see rain and storms pop up ahead of the frontal passage.
The frontal passage could bring a lot of rain, or it could come through in a pretty minor way. Right now I am not getting my hopes up past the QPF from the HPC at 0.1-0.25″. If it lines up right it could bring a lot more.
Behind the front is cool less humid air. The forecast is for high pressure dominating our weather through the weekend. That should bring nice days and temps in the mid-70s. There has been a storm popping up on the models for Sunday night. Early versions a week or so ago had it quite a rain maker. More recent runs have it a quick in and out with minimal rain. I am skeptical of any bluebird holiday weekend forecast, and this is no exception. According to my philosophy of expect the worst and you will never be disappointed, it won’t rain on Wednesday, but will on Sunday night or over the weekend. I’d love to be wrong.
We have an event or two for the upcoming holiday weekend. Here is Chris’s list..
May 29 Rustic Inn
Silver Cliff Rummage Sale
In the Yard and Pavilion
Buy or Sell from 7 AM to 12 Noon
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May 29 Town of Stephenson
Parade starts on Archer Lane off Boat Landing #3 Rd 9th Annual Picnic & Parade
sponsored by the Town of Stephenson Fire Dept. and Twin Bridge Rescue Squad Parade at 11am – Picnic to follow at the Stephenson Town Hall on County X
Food & Drink, Games & Raffles, Live Music
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May 29 Townsend Town Hall 9th Annual Townsend Stars & Stripes Celebration
7pm to 11:30pm Refreshments, Raffles, Games & Prizes, Live Music
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May 29 Wabeno Fire & Rescue Grounds 2nd Annual Wabeno Fire & Rescue Fund raiser
Open House – Pig Roast – Classic Car Show – Raffles – Live Music
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May 30 Silver Cliff Memorial Park
& Picnic Grounds Annual Memorial Day Picnic
Ceremony at 10am, picnic to follow – Food, Drink, Games, Raffles
Sponsored by American Legion Post 66 & Auxiliary
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May 30 Downtown Mountain Mountain Memorial Weekend Parade
Starts at Noon – Life music, food, refreshments and raffles to follow
Sponsored by the Mountain Area Business Assoc.
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May 30 Lakewood Town Hall & Activity Grounds McCaslin Lioness 11th Annual Family Faire
10am – 3pm Raffles & Prizes – Silent Auction – Children’s games
—-New listing—-
Sunday May 30th- Memorial Day Parade Through Wausauke @ 11am followed by the Wausaukee VFD Truck & Garden Tractor Pull 12pm at the fairgrounds $5 entry $2 beer and food
That is about it from here. I will be back later in the week with updates.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
