9:45pm
The snow picked up abut an hour ago and there is probably an inch or a little more down. Now it is actually sticking.
6Pm-
There has been a little snow in the mix since about 4pm. It has not been accumulating other than on a few cold spots in tall grass, and there it is slushy at best. The roads are wet and not snow covered or slippery.
Mostly it is pretty slow falling big flakes that aren’t adding up to anything (Yet).
Greetings and welcome!
Yes Maypril. It is May but the weather thinks it is April. Maypril.
It is a gloomy morning, and according to the radar the rain is not far away. The forecast remains on track for today and tonight. We are looking at some rain today and snow tonight.
The models and forecasts have been pretty consistent with the storms and results for several days, and that inspires some confidence in them, warranted or not. They don’t have the exact snow path down pat, but again they are consistent with the guesses. I have scrubbed every source that I have for two days, and they are pretty well in unison.
The bottom line looks like rain today and tonight, then sometime between 10pm and midnight the rain will change to snow, and there is about 2-4 expected by the time it ends Saturday morning. It could go 3-5 by the Michigan border and maybe more with lake effect up there. The expected main rain snow line is from about Sturgeon Bay to Wausau. Farther south totals should diminish.
We have two storms almost coming together over us. The first is a southern storm with decent rain and a path just a little south of favorable for us. We are still expecting rain, just not as much as the southern half of the state.
Round two comes with a clipper type storm coming out of the northern border states. That is the one with the cold air and the snow. As is typical of a clipper, we could see 1-3 and maybe 2-4, followed by a drop in temps and some wind.
Had the two storms phased together and made a huge winter storm we could see some dynamic snow totals and the potential for a surprise. So far they have not stacked up enough to do that, and are still two separate but related storms.
The other element to look at is the speed of the storms. They are expected to clear out quickly in the early morning. The models show the storm complex over New England by noon Saturday.
So the forecast for tonight is for the rain to change to snow between 10pm and midnight. My guess is earlier. We should see 2-4 ovenight and into the morning, then it will clear up as the day goes on. Look for highs in the mid-40s and gusty winds.
Saturday night looks cold with lows in the upper 20s and widespread frost. Again that is fairly typical after a clipper. Clear skies allow radiational cooling, and with the already cold air behind the front it adds up to a chilly night.
Sunday looks much better. No snow, no rain, 5-10mph winds and a beautiful sunny day are all expected. Look for a high in the mid or upper 50s.
There are special weather statements and a winter weather advisory out from the NWS for the snow overnight. The snow could add up on roads, though it seems unlikely with the ground thawed for almost a month now. If it gets going it could add up and make slippery spots.
The other end of it is if the snow is wet and heavy, it could add up on tree branches that now have leaves, and drop some of those. That remains to be seen, it is just a clipper.
This is not a record setting storm. There are at least five storms since 1960 with 3+ inches of snow on this date. In Green Bay the record today is 8″, and in Lakewood they measured 10. That would take down some branches.
I should also mention that at this time of year, even on a cloudy day, 4″ of snow has a lifespan of about 20 minutes once the sun comes up. In the end of March the sun will shine through the clouds and eat 10″ of snow by lunchtime. In early may it will happen much faster. A few patches might survive longer under trees, but most areas will melt very quickly.
So a mixed weekend in weather.. Maypril. Maybe that should be a contraction.
Anyway, Sunday, in addition to being a nice day, is Mother’s Day. Around here the Hilltop Resort and the Twin Bridge Resort are having reasonably priced Mother’s Day Buffets.
As is standard, Mom rafts free at Kosir’s with a paid rafting trip. That lasts May 7th-9th, all weekend. The Menominee River is the ticket there. It has come up a little this week and the rain will raise it quickly with it’s massive 2,400 square mile watershed. Get her a picture too!
Kurt asked this moring about the four wheelers on McCaslin Mountain. Chris got on the phone this morning and clarified things a little with Edie Smith. The trails on the mountain are closed permanently. The DNR decided that there was to much damage to streams and wet spots and locked it down. So the mountain trails are closed.
The 4 wheelers are stil welcome at the campground. They can still run over to the pipeline and run that. In the case of ATVs they can still trailer to whatever trailhead, Brandywine, Wolf Lane, Firelane, or down to Lakewood.
The mountain trails are closed, but the campground still welcomes the wheelers that want to run the pipeline or other trails. Yes closing the mountain is a big deal and a tragedy.
Well I am off to cover a little ground between the lines of rain. There is firewood to cover and bring in, stuff to batten down against the wind, and what the heck, maybe I will work on that one snowmobile that still needs to be moved and get it ready for morning.
I will be back later if anything changes. Otherwise have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB