Monday June 5th, 2017

Greetings and welcome!

I have a really busy week coming up so I am getting a head start this morning with my Tuesday update.

Saturday turned out to be a much nicer day than expected. It was sunny and in the low 80s, perfect for some outdoor fun. A lot of people took to the river to do a little rafting, and they had a great time.

We started the day with a line of rain that faded out about the time that it got here. As reported the radar showed some rain getting here about 9am, but none made it to the ground at my house.

On the way back from photographing the noon rafting trip I stopped at the top of Fox Hill and took a scenic shot of Thunder Mountain in the distance. You could see the haze as the humidity hung so heavy in the air. I told people that saw the pictures that all of that water would be falling down later in the day. Golly was I right.

About dinner time the skies grew dark and the storm came. The radar on my phone didn’t look impressive at first and all of a sudden it exploded in red and orange and yellow. There was heavy rain, wind, and some marble sized hail. There was so much lightning that the thunder never seemed to stop. It let up for a few minutes and then wave #2 hit with more of the same. It was an impressive storm.

I wasn’t at home so I missed the radar return rainfall estimates. The USGS gauge by Kosir’s apparently only measured 0.01″ of rain. Um no. At that point I am stuck with guessing with a little guidance from area stations. I will call it 1.5-2″ of rainfall with a decent chance of higher totals.

In my travels Sunday it looked like the damage was limited to small branches and leaves blown off of trees and a lot of washing out of gravel roads and driveways. Some of those washouts were pretty significant. It was enough rain that the river jumped 9″ in a little over a day just from the local runoff.

As mentioned before I didn’t get my usual rain reports on this storm. At that point I will be a little challenged to  predict the river levels for the weekend. My best guess is that it will peak in the upper teens about Wednesday and return to about a +6 to+8″ level for Saturday. I don’t see a scenario where it goes under about +6. People had a blast in +6 water last weekend and I think that we are in for another really fun weekend for rafting.

The weather ahead looks nice. We have rain chances Thursday, Friday and again Sunday. Early week we have days in the mid-70s on tap, and it will head into the 80s for the weekend.

The first week in June often brings the first fawn sightings of the year, and several have been seen already. I am pretty sure that I heard one crying in the woods near the house the other night. I expect to see one any day now.

Early June also has brought the first turtle sighting. The snapping turtles come up out of their usual wet habitat and look for sandy spots to lay eggs. This one was on a gravel road in the Nicolet and was about dinner plate sized.

Since my early days of visiting this region I have associated the turtles with good fishing. It is after the bass and panfish spawn, but still before the good bass spots get too weed choked. I am going to see if I can’t do something about that later this week.

That will be the carrot on the stick to hammer through the rest of my must do and to-do list early this week. To that end I am going to wrap up here and get back to work.

Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

Saturday 6-3-17

Greetings and welcome!

I always tell people that they shouldn’t change their weekend plans because of a weather forecast. Today is one of those.

We had a big line of rain heading for us this morning. It looked like it was going to hit about 10am with a downpour. The line mostly evaporated about 20 miles west of here, and the rain that still showed on radar didn’t make it to the ground, at least not at my house. Now the forecast is for no rain until it redevelops late this afternoon.

The atmosphere will be warm and juicy when the cold front comes through. I am seeing some pretty notable CAPE values (2000+), so that could be a strong storm.

RJB

Friday June 2, 2017

Greetings and welcome!

Well we tried letting the weather forecast bake a few more days but it didn’t help. It still looks like rain this weekend.

I am seeing two different scenarios in my guidance this morning. The NAM model is the most desirable with two distinct lines of rain, one coming mid-day Saturday, and one Saturday night. The GFS has a more general rain chance most of the day Saturday and then redeveloping mid-day Sunday.

The NWS forecast has us for a 50% chance Saturday, 60% Saturday night, and 40% Sunday. They also have us in the 0.5-0.5″ range for rainfall Saturday. Their forecast and severe weather outlook have us for a chance of storms Saturday morning through Saturday night, and some could get intense.

The TV is on board with the two distinct lines of storms, and they are showing them as possibly heavy with yellow and orange on the simulated radar.

Serve it up any way that you want to, but it still looks like a wet weekend.

It looks like my prediction of a Peshtigo River Level of about a +6″ for Saturday will be pretty accurate. I like that level a lot for funyaks. It isn’t too rocky, but it isn’t huge either. It is a fun playful level with plenty of action.

I did a little yard work yesterday. All of the recent rain really set the grass off on a growth spurt, and the fast growing stuff was about shin high. If you haven’t cut grass yet or only cut it once you might be in for a job.

With the short work week being a busy one I didn’t have much time for fishing or wildflower tours, and yard work was about the limit of my outdoor experiences. At that point I don’t have any pictures to share today.

Time to wrap it up.. I am not sure what the weekend will ultimately hold for weather, but my plan is to move forward with weekend plans, and be ready for rain or thunderstorms.

That is it for me today. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB

 

Wednesday 5-31-17

Greetings and welcome!

The weekend was a fun one. The weather stayed mostly nice, and there were a lot of people around taking part in all of the fun stuff that we do on weekends.

The forecast changed at the last minute and suggested that Sunday would be a soggy one. Thankfully that storm came overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning, and Sunday turned out to be a nice day. About 4pm a thunderstorm cell came through with some short lived but very intense rain. Monday brought a cooler day with some wind. Later in the day the unsettled weather brought spotty showers and some really cool cloud formations. The spotty showers and cool windy day was a repeat for Tuesday.

We have what looks like a couple of nice days in the 70s ahead for Wednesday-Friday. There is a chance of rain both days on the weekend. I am going to let the weekend get a little closer before I buy into any scenarios. A little faster or a little slower timing on the weekend weather could leave us with a great weekend.

The whitewater rafting on the Peshtigo River last weekend was a blast. The river was hungry Saturday and there were exciting pop-ups, raft burials and disappearing acts, and some really epic wipe-outs. I had a lot of pictures that were just a leg or a paddle or a head sticking up out of the river as people took the rapids deep. A lot of people got a swim, and they had a blast.

Sunday was the polar opposite as far as the river being hungry. I saw raft after raft get away with a deep line run at the rapids that should have been a guaranteed wipeout, only to pop out intact. It was still huge fun, just with a little less carnage.

The river should be great for next weekend. The normal flow is 500cfs, and today it is at 800, and the graph is pretty flat. That translates to about a +12” river level, and it should be at least 6”+ for the weekend. Get it while you can.

The gators (mosquitoes) were hit and miss, but when they were a hit they were plentiful. I walked through a wooded area in one spot and emerged with a cloud of them around me. My Repel 40 served me well and I only got a few welts, but the cloud was impressive. Most of the rest of my time outside they were pretty minimal. I encountered a few wood ticks, but nothing unusual.

A couple of passing thoughts.. First I am happy that I didn’t hear very much in the way of emergency vehicle sirens over the weekend. Hopefully than means it was a safe holiday.

The other passing thought was a little pride and appreciation that so many people were remembering what the Memorial Day weekend holiday was really about. I liked that a lot.

I am going to leave you with a few rafting pictures from the weekend. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB