Wednesday March 23, 2016

Winter Storm Warning

11:30pm

I went out about 10 minutes ago and found 6-7″. It isn’t snowing as hard and the flakes are a lot smaller, but we are still adding to the total. (11:45- I must have caught a lull, it is snowing heavily again, and with a little wind now.)

7:45pm

Greetings and welcome!

We are under a winter storm warning this evening. As of 7:45pm I had two inches down and it was snowing at a heavy rate. It started snowing after I got home at 5:30, so it is adding up at an inch an hour or a little more. The flakes are big, from pencil sized to not quite dime sized. When I grabbed a handful it packed, but not as much as it could have.

There are blizzard warnings for Door Co and southwest to the counties around Lake Winnebago. The wind will add to the heavy snow, with gusts over 40mph, making visibility almost zero.

There was no wind to speak of when I went outside at 7:45. the snow was falling straight down or at a little bit of an angle. At the rate that it was falling it would be difficult travel. Add in a stiff wind and it would be very difficult to see the end of the hood.

The wind is a concern with heavy snow on the trees. Having trees or branches break under the snow and wind load is a possibility. That in turn could take down power lines.

Right now the storm is ‘training’, with wave after wave of precip following west to east like train cars on a track. On the radar it looks like a river going west to east.

The last big storm pinwheeled a line of intense snow through the area from south to north and was done in a few hours. This one is just a river of moisture over one path.

The northern edge of the snow on the radar is right about at the Florence Co Line. The southern line is at about Sheboygan, and it has stayed there for a couple of hours. That tells me that the storm isn’t moving much. At that point we could see some pretty good snow totals in the areas that do get hit. We are only about 30 or 40 miles from the north boundary of the snow, but for now we are in the river.

There is a bountiful supply of moisture, enough cold air, and like all of the best spring snow storms, a secondary area of low pressure with more moisture and more energy to reinforce the storm. The storm is expected to continue into mid-day tomorrow.

If we stay in the heavy snow all night it will bring 10″ plus totals, and still coming hot n heavy after sunrise. If the storm moves south 50 miles we might get off the hook at 3-4″, but that isn’t looking good at the moment.

At 8:30pm I just measured 3 1/2″. By my estimation it was falling at close to 2″ an hour while I did my update.

I will update again with totals in the wee hours and/or in the morning.

Have a good night and thank you for visiting!

RJB

 

 

 

Monday March 21, 2016

Greetings!

A stretch of warm weather and low snow totals ended our snowmobiling season early. ElNino winters are usually bad for snowmobilers, and this one lived up to the hype.

We had a few warm weeks, and a coupe of really nice days, the warmest being 67. Mud season soon followed, with foot deep ruts and people parking cars out by the road.

The ground is bare, and the frost is out of the ground now in most open areas. Sheltered areas might still be a little soft, and places with more snow a little north are probably behind in the ground thaw.

Once the snowmobile trails closed so did the ATV trails. They stay closed until the ground firms up. Usually they reopen the first week of May, but it can be early or late depending on conditions.

The Peshtigo River ice opened early, and last Saturday found high water (~30″) for those that made it for opening weekend at Kosir’s Rafting. It is at +18″ now and falling, but we have a big storm possible mid-week that could send it right back up.

Did I mention that there could be a big storm this week? We could see a little rain or snow ahead of the main event coming for Wednesday into Thursday.

Depending on where the storm tracks, somewhere could see 6-10+ inches, along with a good bit of wind. With the amount of cold air shown it could be fairly light snow and subject to a lot of blowing and drifting.

Right now where will it hit is the question. There have been two scenarios being shown. One has from Green Bay south getting the big stuff. Scenario two moves it 100 miles north for a perfect bulls eye on the area from Green Bay to Iron Mountain. The latter is what my newest guidance is showing, with the GFS and North American models in good agreement.

As shown it will be a good storm somewhere.

There are a couple of more big storms showing up in the 16 day GFS.

There is a lot more to talk about but it is time to go for tonight. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB

 

March 17th, 2016

Greetings and welcome!

Whitewater rafting starts early this year. The river opened up last weekend and is running high, so Kosir’s is opening the for the season early.

The river is heading for the 24″ mark, and we got about 1.5″ of rain yesterday. If you want to catch the big spring water, here is your chance. Call Kosir’s at 715-757-3431.

Updates will resume here in a day or two.

RJB

Thursday October 29, 2015

Greetings and welcome!

Well my optimism for last Saturday turned out to be all wet. It was a soggy day. Sunday was fantastic though.

Yesterday we had a long steady rain that brought at least an inch. By official tallies that puts us in at about 1.5″ for the week, but I think that it was probably closer to two inches.

The back of the Wednesday storm brought the first ground covering snow of the season Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Here at the house it covered the car and the charcoal grill, but not a lot of the grass. The morning news had a picture of white ground in Lakewood, and I saw it myself between here and Wausaukee.

There is another storm lining up on us for this Saturday. It is not as strong as the past couple of storms, but it still looks like a good chance of rain Saturday. Some of my guidance showed most of it staying south, so there is a little optimism.

This weekend the stakes are a little higher with prime hunting season and most communities in the area having trick or treat this Saturday.

Like last weekend, Sunday looks sunny and 55.

This weekend daylight savings ends. To some that means an extra hour of sleep when the clocks go back an hour Saturday nigh, to others it is an extra hour of bar time.

Personally I don’t mind an extra hour of sunlight at the end of the day. It is to the point now where I go to work in the dark and get home at sunset or later, leaving outside activities like firewood or hunting for weekends only.

The fall colors are just about done now. There are a few soft hardwoods with a little color and the tamarack are in full color, but that it about it. The woods are looking pretty bare.

A lot of folks are talking about the El Nino taking the edge off of winter this year. It looks like a strong El Nino, and yes it is close to the 98-99 El Nino.

While that does not bode well for the snowmobiling season, I am still not buying that it will be a mild winter. I ordered my snow tires yesterday, and will be working on firewood, insulation, and the plow truck this weekend. The price for being unprepared its too high.

It also looks like the El Nino could peak early. I have seen a declining El Nino bring a lot of snow and some very real winters. It could be a mild winter, but as usual the plan is to be ready for anything.

That is it for me tonight. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!

RJB