Thursday December 6th, 2012

Greetings and welcome!

We have a couple of chances for snow in the short term, and we will take a look at them tonight.

Friday night and into Saturday morning we have a chance of an inch or two of snow. The GFS model is showing a chance of an inch or two, the NAM model shows the snow missing us. The TV weather guy this evening was a little more impressed, looking for as much as 2-4.

I am not expecting much, if anything, for accumulating snow out of that one. That could change, but the info in front of me is not supportive of much snow right now.

The storm for Sunday is looking a little better tonight. The models have bounced around a little on details, but the bottom line is that one could end up being a 2-4 or 3-6 storm with a twist of maybe bigger.

The set up on the storm is a decent one, with a southern and northern storm coming together our region. The challenge is that neither storm is very strong.

The NAM is showing the most precip. If that one came home, we should see as much as 6-9″. The GFS is showing a little less, probably a 3-6 or a 4-8. The HPC is showing us in the 1-3 area and places as close as Eagle River in the 2-6 range.

I am pretty comfortable that we will see at least a 2-4 or 3-6 storm. The models have been trending a little stronger than that, so there is a chance at a little more. I am probably more skeptical than I should be on totals.

The good news behind the storm is that the temperatures will stay normal or a little cooler than normal. The snow should stick around for a while. The bad news is that there aren’t any other storms showing up on the GFS between now and the 15th when trails can open. That could change.

The Sunday storm looks like it will be good for the lake effect snow belt by the UP. Later in the storm there will probably be some pretty good cold north winds coming across Lake Superior. I am not going to guess at totals, but it looks like a good snow event for the favored areas.

The storm last night and today looked good on radar. Here on the ground it only amounted to a very light dusting.

There is no snow on the ground. I haven’t been past the lakes in the daytime in a few days, so I am not sure about ice conditions. Last week there were reports of 1-2″ in the bays of Caldron Falls, but I am not sure how that handled the warm spell and rain.

It took a lot of ice off of the Peshtigo River where I cross it by Kosir’s, but it is starting to bounce back. The mid to upper twenties the next few nights will help a little, but the 13 degree low for Monday night will be more what we are looking for to make ice.

The TV weather guys are big on naming storms. This one could be snowstorm Allen or whatever. I am kicking around the idea of doing that with snowmobile names.

A-Ariens, B- Boa-Ski C-Chaparral, D-Diablo Rouge, E-Evinrude, F- Foremost, G- Gilson, H- Harley Davidson, I-?, J- John Deere, K- Kawasaki, L-Laser, M-Moto-Ski N-? O-?, P-Phantom, Q- Not!, R- Rupp, S- Sno-Jet T- Trail Cat, U, V, W, X, Yamaha, ZRT

I find the concept a little corny, so I probably won’t move on it, but it was fun trying to come up with names.

So anyway… we are on snow watch for an inch or three for Friday night/Saturday morning, and a little bigger storm for Sunday. Hopefully they both come home.

That is it for now.. Have a good Friday and thank you for visiting!

RJB