Greetings and welcome!
It looks like things are shaping up about the way that I expected for the weeekend. The Peshtigo River is running at a very fun +4.5″ right now, and will rise for the weekend. Slug sent in a comment that the Menominee River is up 3 1/2 feet by him.
The weekend ahead looks nice too with the exception of Friday/Friday night. Tonight and into Friday we are expecting some showers and thunderstorms as a warm front comes into the area. Not too far behind it is a cold front, and that one could bring severe weather.
The cold front is expected to get to us Friday afternoon or night. The models show it coming through with 0.5″ of rain in the NAM. The GFS is showing what I would think is convective feedback, and has QPFs in the 2″ range.
More important, the cold front will bring the ingredients for severe weather. The NWS forecast discussion mentioned CAPE values in the 3500 j/kg range. That is very unstable air. Between that, the shear, jet stream support and other ingredients, Friday could get ugly. From the NWS forecast discussion..
THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO EDGE INTO WSTRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON… WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT ADVECTING A VERY WARM…MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS (USING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S) SHOW STG INSTABILITY…WITH CAPES AROUND 3500 J/KG. SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS WILL BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER NC/C WI DURING THE AFTERNOON…AIDED BY THE RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK…AND INCREASING SFC/850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 40-50 KTS…SO SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY. A SIGNIFICANT SVR WX EVENT APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR GRB CWA ON FRI AFT/EVG.
Sounds ominous.
Behind the cold front it looks like we are in for a great weekend. Look for a sunny day in the upper 70s Saturday, and more of the same on Sunday but with some increasing clouds. Lows in the 50s will make comfortable sleeping and campfire weather.
The whitewater rafting is going to be huge fun this weekend. Both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are running at really fun levels. The Peshtigo is actually over it’s median flow, and the Menominee did it yesterday. The menom is between 2,000 and 2,500cfs, and the Peshtigo 452cfs (+4.5″).
I will stick to my prediction that the Pesh will rise tomorrow and beyond from Tuesday’s rain, and bring 6+ inches for the weekend. If the T-storms tomorrow add up according to predictions, it will end up (maybe much) higher. The Menom should be in between 2000 and 2500, again a huge fun level.
I don’t have any new events, but here is my update list..
There is a car show at Lakewood Pavillion
The Crandon Racetrack is having a fan appreciation weekend
The Dark Horse Band will be at the Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend.
and Chris’ original list..
| June 19 | Pethke Family Farm 7895 Elm Rd – Suring |
Oconto County Breakfast on the FarmServing from 8:00 am to 1:00 pm – Celebrating June Dairy Month |
| June 17-20 | Green AcresPorterfield |
28th Annual Porterfield Country Music FestivalDetails at countrymusicfestival.com |
| June 26 | Bear Point Yacht Club Hwy 180 – Wausaukee |
8th Annual Bear Point Fishing Tournament |
| June 27 | Gross Family Farm N3905 9th Rd – Pound |
Marinette County Breakfast on the FarmServing from 7:30 am to 12 noon – Celebrating June Dairy Month |
Next weekend is huge for events. The Dark Horse band will be at Rapids, and they are bringing Tommy Graywolf, a really excellent fiddler. The band is great and TG is amazing. (The Dark Horse guys will be playing Lakeside Bar on Newton Lake this weekend too.)
Well, that is my story and I’m sticking to it. Come rafting this weekend, the rivers are bigger than they have been all year. Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB