Greetings and welcome!
Today’s to do list.. fix truck, fix lawn mower, cut grass, bring in firewood. Firewood? Yep. We could see a hard freeze tonight as temperatures could go into the 20s. We are expecting a widespread frost and possible hard freeze in some spots. At least it is happening now and not over the weekend.
A task much harder than my to-do list is figuring out a forecast for the weekend. Looking at the model guidance and various forecasts there are several scenarios, and not a lot of guidance at all. The best guess right now is that we will see some rain overnight Friday night and early Saturday. It should dry out as the morning progresses. That much the models agree on.
The NAM model keeps us in the neighborhood of some rain, but dry the rest of the weekend. ( BUY BUY BUY!) The GFS is showing another round of showers possible again Saturday night and early Sunday morning, and a minor chance Monday too. Both models agree on a mostly dry Saturday and Sunday days.
The NWS puts rain chances in the forecast pretty much the whole weekend as they are not sure how far a warm front will track north or if it will track back or keep going. As I mentioned before, the forecast models are offering a variety of ideas.
My best guess is that we will see the best chances for rain Friday night and early Saturday am, and then a pretty decent weekend. Saturday and Sunday should be ok. Monday’s forecast gets more interesting since there will be warm humid air coming from the south in advance of a big storm for Tuesday. That will probably bring some instability and maybe one of those summer afternoon showers or storms. The rain for Saturday night is a 50-50 chance.
Unless something changes a lot, the weekend will hardly be a washout or a steady rain. Most of the models area showing rain totals for the whole weekend under 1/4″ and the worst is up to the 0.25-0.5″ band. The focus of most of that precip is overnight Friday night.
As far as temperatures look for mid 60s Friday-Sunday and mid-70s Monday. Lows should be in the mid-40s Friday night and then the mid to upper 50s the rest of the weekend.
The next item up is gas prices. If you haven’t filled up the tank, you probably should. Prices here and in Crivitz were at ~$3.85 yesterday, but we can expect it to go up little. The excuse this year is a minor refinery problem in IL tightening regional supplies, so it will cost an extra dime. At the same time the NYMEX is up a dime in the past two days. The deal of the day yesterday was in Athelstane where I paid $4.04 for no ethanol premium 93, down from $4.29 a week before. Anyway, between the Nymex and the holiday weekend premium, expect prices to nudge up a dime or two.
People coming to play in the whitewater rivers this weekend will have a great time. The water levels on both the Peshtigo and Menominee Rivers are above normal and the best in several years. The wet weather from last fall and again this spring have the wetland areas and the aquifers well charged with water. We won’t be seeing rocky rivers anytime soon, the base flow alone will be enough to keep it fun for weeks.
For this weekend I’d look for the Peshtigo to be running in the +6 or +7 range. It is dropping from the rise caused by last weekend’s rain, but right now it is at about a +10″, and running a little over 700FCS. The median flow for today is about 375.Whatever the case, it should be a really fun weekend for paddlers of the Peshtigo.
The Menominee River shared in the rain bounty this spring, and it too is running above normal levels. I’d look for that in the 2-3,000cfs range, a really fun level for the runs through Peir’s Gorge. Chicago Mike over on the Kosir’s blog is suggesting a Two Rivers Special this weekend, and that is a heck of a good idea. You might want to call ahead to get the best trip times. With the good water levels Kosir’s will be the place to be this weekend.
As I am proofing this I realize that I forgot to mention that Kosir’s is starting with the flat water tubing and sit on top kayak rentals this weekend. The tubing starts right at Kosir’s and goes downriver on the flat water stretch and riffles. The sit on top kayaks are fun for anyone, you go and paddle the wild and beautiful Caldron Falls Flowage. We have done both a few times and had a great time.
Cabin owners will probably want to plan some time for cutting grass over the weekend. It is time. I have been so busy that I haven’t done mine yet and it it getting pretty shaggy.
The spring unfolding is in it’s glory. A lot of the trees have delicate new leaves, and there is something blooming almost everywhere you look. New this week the ferns are starting to come in, and the oak trees are getting into the act. Don’t forget the Repel. The usual players are present, the tick, gators and the gnats. While none are overwhelming they are present. I am kind of surprised that we don’t have more gators (mosquitoes) after the wet spring. Give it time.
As far as events I will refer you back to Tuesday’s list, I have not come across any new ones.
I would expect decent fishing this weekend. With the storms around the region we will not be suffering from the usual cold front lockdown, but rather the changing barometer should be in our favor. Next Wednesday is a new moon, and Monday is a peak day preceding it. Saturday and Sunday should be good too, with afternoon majors between 2-4pm. Solunar table Link.
Northbound travelers will encounter some construction zones, but the DOT has opened as many lanes as possible. People can expect construction zones near the IL state line on 94, and near the airport in MKE.
- I-94 from Russell Road to the Wisconsin state line, 1 mile. Lane reductions due to construction.
- I-43/I-894 between Loomis Road and I-43/I-894/I-94 Mitchell Interchange, 1.6 miles and I-94 between College and Howard avenues, 4 miles. The ramp from I-894 eastbound to I-43/I-94 northbound is closed with a detour via Loomis Road and Howard Avenue. Lane restrictions along I-94 between the Mitchell Interchange and College Avenue, both directions.
Taking 43 north there is construction around Sheboygan and Oostburg..
6. I-43 at Oostburg, 2.5 miles and at Sheboygan, 4 miles. Traffic will be limited to one lane in each direction at Oostburg and at Sheboygan.
If you take 45 north look for zones between Oshkosh & Neenah, and again in Green Bay..
8. US 41 from one mile south of WIS 26 to Breezewood Lane, 16 miles. Construction requires 11-foot width restriction and has narrowed shoulders. Interchanges at 9th Avenue, US 45, and Breezewood Avenue are closed. Detours are posted. Expect delays during peak travel periods.
9. US 41 at the Scheuring Road Interchange at Green Bay, 1 mile. The interchange is closed for reconstruction.
Here is the map in PDF form..
http://www.dot.wisconsin.gov/news/docs/memorialday2011.pdf
and the page that goes with it..
http://www.dot.wisconsin.gov/opencms/export/nr/modules/news/news_2708.html_786229440.html
That is about it from here. Have fun, be safe, and have a great weekend!
RJB