Tuesday June 21st, 2011

Greetings and welcome!

We are about to get a wet start to the day today, and there is more on the way. If you are inclined to go whitewater rafting or paddling, this coming weekend should be BIG.

The river will be going up already this week from last Sunday’s rain. When I was out early afternoon Sunday the rain was falling at a steady moderate pace. It added up fast, filling the two lane rut road across except for the very middle, and it was softening up gravel roads. Local rain gauges show about 1/3 of an inch, but having been out in it and seeing how it added up I would insist that it was 1/2-3/4″ plus.

That was around here. To our northwest the Peshtigo River watershed was getting pounded. The storm was doing the railroad track thing where wave after wave of the storm hit the same spots, and it was squared off on the Peshtigo River watershed. We watched the radar showed wave after wave of the storm heading north like they were on a rail. Radar returns showed 1.5-2.5″ across the watershed.

That water started hitting the whitewater stretch yesterday, and the river is already up to almost +5 from about zero or minus one.

That is just the Hors d’œuvre.. As anyone that has been watching the weather or news recently knows, we are in for a wet week. To use my favorite line from the movie Twister, “It’s not coming, it’s already here…”. Right now (9am) it is as dark out as it would be at dawn, and it is coming down pretty good. The TV and lights flickering tell me that some lightning may be around too, oops there was a rumble.. and down went the lights.

So how much rain are we expecting this week? Right now the estimate is 2-3″ around here. Here is a HPC QPF for the next 5 days. Click it to make it bigger.

The NWS Hydrological Outlook mentions high end possibilities in the 3-4″ range in some areas.

The story is that we have a very strong storm that is expected to slowly track east along the MN/IA border and continue east across WI. It is a slow moving storm that will probably take until Thursday or Friday to clear out. In the meantime it will sit and spin off wave after wave of precipitation. It does have a Gulf of Mexico moisture tap and eventually will tap the Atlantic too.

Here is a link to the GFS 850/MSLP/6 hour QPF animation that shows how slowly the storm will be moving.

Sunday Chicago Mike asked me for a high end prediction for the Peshtigo River next weekend. I raised a few eyebrows when my guess was +14 or +15. That assumes that the rain in the forecast actually hits the ground.

With what is down now a guess of +4 to +6 is pretty reasonable, and with a couple of inches more hitting the already soggy watershed, seeing it blow through the 12″ mark running isn’t out of the question at all. My guess might be  little low, but sometimes forecasts get a little carried away on the QPF numbers, so I tempered it a little.

So, if you are inclined to go whitewater rafting, make plans to be around here this weekend. The river should be big and fun, and people will have a ball.

In spite of having a wet week in the forecast all week, the weekend looks great. Saturday is expected to be mostly sunny and in the mid-70s, and Sunday only adds a few clouds to make it partly cloudy.

Gas prices have been kicking our butts this summer and they finally are on the way down. The NYMEX RBOB price is down about a dime from last week. Locally the pump price was at $3.68 along 32 in Lakewood Townsend and Carter. I didn’t move on it, hoping for further downward movement today.

I am not happy about 3.68 gas, but I do like the direction. It beats the peak price of $4.17 earlier in the year.

Looking up on WI gas prices, they are showing a station in Kenosha selling 87 at $3.35. It is still a dollar too high, but a fine start.

Steve from Athelstane Weather sent in a few pictures of the northern lights from June 4th on Friday. Here are a couple of them.

The display that night wasn’t as strong as we had hoped for, but there should be more to come. Solar Cycle 24 is expected to be a weak one, but we are ramping up toward it’s peak and will likely see more displays. Thanks for sharing the pictures Steve!

Here are some local events for this weekend.

I want to give you a heads up that there are a lot of events coming for the 4th of July weekend ( A 3 day’er with the 4th on Monday!)

Also up front is a heads up on the Super Dave Memorial Ride, Swap Meet and Poker Run July 7-8-9. There are about 10 bars and campgrounds involved with it up here and it is a very big event. I will have more info on it directly.

The great outdoors report starts with the bugs. It has been a strange year for our pesky insect population. Last week I worked outside a couple of days and never saw a mosquito and came away with one tick. There were spots not to far away where the mosquitoes and gnats were a cloud. I am not sure why it is so hit n miss this year or why they are gathered up like that.

Apparently one of the local deer had a fawn not too far from here, and the little wobbly legged baby has been spotted a few times. So far it has eluded my lens, but both Chris and I have seen it on separate occasions.

I am going to be working on a web site this week for a guy that sells a neat little fishing gadget. It looks like a quality ball point pen, but when you click it a wire loop comes out that when released will firmly hold your hook while you put a line through it, sharpen it or twist up the line to make your knot. It is a cool gadget soon to be on sale on a new web site.

That is about it from here today. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!

RJB