Greetings and welcome!
In my last update I mentioned that the lakes and ground were not freezing. That has changed. I haven’t seen ice on the Peshtigo River by Rapids Resort yet. The little pond on Hwy A about 2 miles south of C was frozen over several times last week with skin ice, and likely is this morning.
If we are not making ice on bigger lakes we are getting close to it. I haven’t tried to dig in the ground but that seems to be freezing up too. A couple of splotches of snow remain in the deep shadow on the north side of the house and we had a dusting overnight that did not melt on contact, even on roads.
Saturday I was out cutting & splitting wood in the afternoon. It was in the low 30s with heavy clouds, a bitter damp wind, and snow was going to start any minute. I was getting tired and hungry and cold. I went inside a little early thinking that the weather wasn’t a whole lot worse than a nasty December day and that there would be better days ahead.
Ooops.
We should be in the mid to upper 40s right now. We are lucky to see low-30s. Last night we got down to 18F and we are looking at a high of 29 today.
This coming week it will get worse. Thursday the NWS forecast is for a high of 28 and a low of 13. Friday is about the same, but a few degrees warmer overnight. Most days we will see a high around freezing. That will freeze pipes. You need to winterize unheated plumbing very very soon.
Looking at the 16 day GFS forecast we are headed for much below normal temperatures for at least 10 days. The pattern that I am seeing is pumping cold air down into the Midwest right out of the Arctic. (Yes the polar vortex if you must) Most of the 850mb temperatures that I see (about 2-3,000 feet up) range from 0F to +10F. That’s pretty cold for early November. While that doesn’t directly translate to our temperatures here on the surface it does demonstrate a very cold air mass.
Our typical high temperatures right now would be in the mid to upper 40s. We are consistently 15-20 degrees below normal. I absolutely hate that because I have seen this cartoon before.. We will be 20 degrees below normal until that cold December weather IS normal, cheating us out of six weeks of fall weather. None of this fits well with the weeks of pre-winter outside chores that I have ahead of me.
I fully expect to have frozen ground and a skin on some lakes by late week. If the 10 day forecast works out we will have a significant start on freezing everything up.
We have had several rounds of snow in the region. Most of the snow that made it here was on radar only. A few flakes made wet spots on the cement Sunday night, about the equivalent of a passing sprinkle. We have not had accumulating snow since last Tuesday 10/29.
There is a chance of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday that could bring a couple of inches if it moves a little north.
We are not alone with the early cold weather. I was reading an article last night about low temperature records being set across the US, Canada, and Europe. Early snows brought devastating crop losses to the Dakotas, MN, and a good sized chunk of west central Canada. The list went on and on with early winter records and reports from around the northern hemisphere. It was some grade AAA doom p**n but it was real.
So what is going on? The above mentioned article was trying to associate our cold northern hemisphere with our solar minimum. Solar cycle 24 is indeed bringing a deep solar minimum. So far this year our sun has been spotless 75% of the days. Some people are trying to compare it to the Maunder minimum (the little ice age). Not even close- yet.
While reduced solar output will certainly affect our climate, I am more likely to blame more short term oscillations in our climate like the PDO, AMO, AO, and the one that we all know, ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation. I am not quite ready to declare it an ice age just yet.
Ok so winter is off to an early and rowdy start. My first thought is to be ready for a rough ride. The next thought is what happens when the rubber band snaps back? Honestly that is an answer that I don’t have.
For right now we are a lot colder than normal and we will be for the near future. The takeaways-
1) Winterize plumbing much earlier than usual this year. I hope to do my well house and camper later today.
2) The ground and lakes will freeze up early this year.
3) It is going to suck to be me finishing up weeks of my outside chores in sub-freezing weather when the weather should be at 45F.
Well I am off to go to work. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB